Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-9.5, 40.5)
Just like Texas-Texas Tech last week, Saturday night's feature game once again takes on the revenge theme when the No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions host to the Iowa Hawkeyes (8PM EST ABC).
Both teams come in at 3-0 but the media focus will be on Iowa's 24-23 upset win last year. The last-second field goal to win the game put then No. 3 Penn State out of contention for the BCS Championship.
Just like all coaches, Joe Paterno and Kirk Ferentz have tried to downplay the revenge factor, but last year's game is no doubt on the minds of players and fans. Penn State SR QB and team captain Daryll Clark, who threw a key interception in the fourth quarter that set up the game winning drive, seems to have taken the loss on his shoulders.
“There’s nothing that anyone can tell to make me believe that it wasn’t my fault, period,” Clark told reporters.
This is his last chance to make amends and this year Clark will have the benefit of home-field advantage with the 107,000-plus crowd encouraged to "white out" Beaver Stadium.
Penn State easily won its first three games of the season, but pretty much treated Akron, Syracuse and Temple as preseason warmups for the Big Ten opener. Iowa has been tested a bit more. The Hawkeyes avoided a near scare, squeaking a 17-16 win over FCS team Northern Iowa. They then blew out Iowa State on the road 35-3 and came out with a tough 27-17 win over a decent Arizona team.
Blue Royster Cult
Iowa has one of the best secondaries in the nation so it’s no secret that Penn State will try and dictate its offense around star running back Evan Royster, who rushed for 90 yards and one TD in last year's game.
The running game as a whole looked sluggish in the first two games with three new starters on the offensive line. Prior to the Temple game, Royster announced on his Facebook page, "Evan Royster is sick.... very sick" but that didn't seem to matter as Royster rushed for 136 yards and one TD, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
The Hawkeyes defense did well against the rush versus Arizona last week, who came into the game averaging 305 yards per game. A key moment occurred late in the first quarter after having given up a 58 yard run. Iowa stayed firm after this big play forcing the Wildcats to kick a field goal. The goal line stand turned momentum and Arizona had a tough time rushing for the rest of the game.
Iowa has an excellent defensive line and it will be backed up by a talented and experienced linebacker corps led by SR Pat Angerer. Penn State had trouble in the red zone in last year's game having to settle for three points on a couple early drives.
Royster will have to grind it out and put in an All-American performance and Daryll Clark, who rushed for 10 TD’s last year, will also have to establish himself as a threat on the ground. Clark has only rushed six times for one yard this year, but claims that they have only used 70 percent of their playbook in the first three games.
While all signs point to a stereotypical Big Ten matchup, Penn State's may surprise and go to the air more. Iowa's secondary are ball hawks (pun intended) and they will be facing an inexperienced receiving core.
Last year, Clark had NFLers Derrick Williams and Deon Butler to throw to and he only went 9-for-23 for 86 yards. Offensive coordinator Galen Hall has modernized the offense in the last couple years and he is fully aware of the focus on containing Royster. While there are no high profile recruits at WR, Hall did shape former walk on Butler into an NFL-caliber receiver. If the passing game can produce some big plays early and avoid turnovers, this could open up the lanes more Royster.
Second Half Stanzi
Iowa's JR QB Ricky Stanzi has already developed a reputation for being a second-half performer. So far this year Stanzi has a 72.9 percent completion rate in the second half, but is only 49 percent in the first half. Stanzi didn't seem to wake up until the final 10 minutes of last year's game, but was near perfect leading two key scoring drives.
So it may sound cliché, but Penn State's best defense might have to be its offense. The Lions will want to have a big lead going into the half, as a close game may be in Iowa's favor. Stanzi isn't flashy and doesn't put up big stats but he is like Ben Roethlisberger seeming to come up big in clutch situations.
The early departure of Shonn Greene to the NFL hurts their running game a bit, but two talented freshmen have stepped in his place. Carries will be split between Adam Robinson, who ran for 101 yards and two scores against Arizona, and Brandon Wegher, who was rated the 16th best running back out high school by scout.com.
Depleted Resources
Both teams are expected to be missing several starters Saturday, but Penn State may have the edge here. Stanzi will have a downgrade on his blindside with star LT Bryan Bulaga out with an undisclosed illness. Favorite targets TE Tony Moeaki and last year's leading receiver WR Derrell Johnson-Koulianos are still listed as day-to-day.
It appears that Penn State starting linebackers Sean Lee and Navorro Bowman won't suit up for the game, but Penn State is called linebacker U for a reason and boosts tremendous depth at that position
Stat Crunchers Beware
When looking at the head-to-head stats in the series, Iowa's six wins in the last seven games sticks out but this is a bit misleading. Penn State was in its dark days in the early part of the decade and its rise back to top of conference in 2005 coincided with a two-year hiatus in the series.
Also, none of the matchups have resembled each other in any shape or form. The 2002 game featured at high scoring 42-35 overtime win for Iowa, while the 2004 matchup was a bizarre 6-4 loss for Penn State.
In 2005, Joe Pa upgraded the program and they went from 4-7 to 11-1 and an Orange Bowl victory. They didn't play Iowa until 2007 and easily beat them in Happy Valley 27-7. Last year, they had to deal with a tough road crowd in Iowa City and they did have a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter.
The Line
The spread currently hovers between -9.5 and -10 in favor of Penn State. Last year, Penn State was undefeated going into the game and were a 7-point favorite. Iowa was coming off a 3-point loss to Illinois, but since last year's upset it has not lost a game. In the last matchup at Beaver stadium in 2007, Penn State was a 9-point favorite and covered the spread winning 27-7.
With key Hawkeye injuries and home-field advantage, Penn State has the ability to blow out this game early if Clark is on point and Royster puts in a big performance. But the Hawkeyes will most likely slow down the pace of the game to prevent an early blowout.
The total for the game sits at 40 at most books and that number has been consistent in this series. The total was 40 in 2003, 2004, and 2007 pushing once and going under twice. Last year's total was 42.5 and because of Stanzi's fourth quarter performance, it went over.
If Iowa can keep the game close and minimize the effect of the crowd then there is value not only in the spread but in the +310 moneyline as well. Penn State to win straight up is around -370.
Bettors weary of Stanzi's slow starts may also want to look into the first half spread which sits at -6 in favor of Penn State.
Penn State is currently 0-3 ATS but, as mentioned above, it treated the first three games like preseason NFL games and were backdoored by late insignificant touchdowns (well not for bettors) by Akron and Syracuse.
Iowa is 2-0 ATS having been a single-digit favorite against Iowa State and Arizona. The last time the Hawkeyes were underdogs was against Penn State last year. We can unofficially count that near upset against North Iowa as an ATS loss though.
Weather
Temperature is expected to be around 54 to 58 around kickoff with a 70 percent chance of precipitation. South East winds (diagonal across the field at Beaver Stadium) will be around 14 mph. Perfect for a Big Ten opener.