NFL Underdogs: Week 2 odds and picks

By ASHTON GREWAL | September 19, 2009 | 22 comments
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The images were ugly. It was like watching an armless midget in a knife fight with Steven Segal. All I could do was cover my eyes and hope it would end soon.

The Washington Redskins were being outclassed in almost every aspect of the game but still trailed the Giants by just 13 points late in the fourth quarter.

All of a sudden, the Redskins were gaining some semblance of momentum moving the ball. When Jason Campbell hit Chris Cooley in the end zone to make the score 20-14 with 1:37 left, I knew my ATS win had been secured.

I had no business collecting payment on that game. I picked the Redskins to cover as 6.5-point dogs, but if the Giants’ red-zone offense hadn’t crapped the bed, the final score would have been more like 40-14.

I’ll take the tainted victory. Back door covers are as essential to underdog bettors as frosted tips are to boy bands.

I’ll get to the doggy picks, but first a few observations from Week 1:

Covers Expert Ted Sevransky noted in the preseason that the Ravens defense didn’t look the same without Rex Ryan calling plays. It’s early, but total bettors should pay attention to how easily the Chiefs moved the ball against Baltimore’s stop unit. I think the Ravens-Chargers game will go well over the posted total (40).

I know that the Patriots look much more vulnerable than they have in years (including last season) but grabbing them at -3.5 at the Jets is too good of value to pass up. There’s a reason this line opened up closer to a touchdown. All the Jets’ yapping during the week only makes fading the J-E-T-S all the more sensible.

Jake Delhomme is a much better quarterback than he’s played in his last two games, but I’m worried his confidence might be rocked. You can’t have your signal caller second guessing all his reads when he drops back. Still, he’s a scrappy dude with a ton of pride. I’m steering the hell clear of that Panthers-Falcons game, but I’ll be watching it closely.

The oddsmakers are giving points to all sorts of good teams this week, so let’s hit them where it hurts… the payment window.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5)

That loss to the Pats isn’t the kind that you just forget about right away. It’s a lingering pain, like a square kick to the nuts.

Buffalo should feel some confidence about the way its offense looked so soon after the switch at coordinator and that was without even using Terrell Owens and Lee Evans much.

The loss of middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is going to hurt the Bills and the defense will be even worse for wear if Terrence McGee, the team’s best cornerback, isn’t able to play.

I liked the ground game I saw from the Bucs last weekend. Their secondary looks a bit shaky, but Dick Jaron is a conservative coach who won’t test Tampa Bay’s defensive backs too often.

Pick: Bucs +5

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

What’s blue, silver and white, and always cracks under pressure?

If you said a robot Bill Buckner you're not entirely wrong.

The answer is the Dallas Cowboys over the last 15 years.

I don’t care if Jerry Jones can squeeze half the state of Texas in his new stadium for Sunday night’s game. It’s not enough to keep me from taking the three points oddsmakers are giving the Giants.

Not having Chris Canty hurts a bit, but New York’s D-line is so versatile with Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. Just think about how many false starts Cowboys LT Flozell Adams is going to be called for Sunday while trying to get a jump on the two Giant defensive ends.

Pick: Giants +3

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)

OK, this is the pick I feel the least confident about. Maybe it’s because I know that if the Texans’ offense doesn’t improve at all I can kiss my fantasy football championship season goodbye.

Tennessee looks just as nasty on defense even without the departed Albert Haynesworth, but don’t forget how good Mario Williams and Co. played in the first half against the Jets.

I’m banking on Gary Kubiak calling better plays and Matt Schaub to finish with more than three fantasy points.

Pick: Texans +6.5

Last week: 2-1

22 comments
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xxMARTINIxx
xxMARTINIxx says:
09/19/09 10:28PM

Hmmm, I was thinking more Jets, Ravens, and Giants, but thats how the ball bounces! Good Luck!

glyde69
glyde69 says:
09/19/09 11:18PM

" It’s early, but total bettors should pay attention to how easily the Chiefs moved the ball against Baltimore’s stop unit."

Are you nuts? KC had 180 total yards! What game were you watching????

extreme2420
extreme2420 says:
09/20/09 12:03AM

well ashton another season and already leading people to a lost. all because of your fantasy football. hmhmhm picking a team just because there in you fantasy team. omg this is what they pay you for giving your picks based on fantasy football lmao.

well from now on please just stick to picking games for the right reasons not sause of your fantasy team. and you think texans will cover. to funny didnt tenns just give pitts a good game? well look for tenns to come out and get a win here in week 2 and cover.

the only team i like you pick was the tb game.

but hers my underdog picks

seattle +1.5 balt +3 and ariz +3

i also see everyone taking pitts. well ill take chic to +3 bears to bounch back. you watch pitts loses out right to chicago. both teams lost a big key player bears qb shows why hes in chicago. and just a little stat pitts won the last 5 games dating back to 1995. all good things come to end. and have betting on pitts her i see a big upset books clean house on the game ill ride out with the chi town boys.

tenns atlanta gb min n.o ill tease for dbl the units and ill parlay them gorr 1 unit. i feel they can cover the spread but i will always cover my behind with a teaser just incase. gla.

jmaydc
jmaydc says:
09/20/09 12:56AM

NOr pick, Balt +3, NYG +3 were my early picks. All dogs is unusual for me. Maybe I'll win for a change!

I like Sea +1, Stl +10, Oak +3 as well.

StevenGA1011
StevenGA1011 says:
09/20/09 05:58AM

STL +10

NO -1

NYJ +3.5

JAX -3

CIN +9

SEA +1

Phor20
Phor20 says:
09/20/09 06:00AM

uh, ok dude, whateva you say!... canty missing hurt the giants? he hasn't played yet, how can he hurt if he hasn't played? this ain't baseball where the NY Yankees lost their home debut in their new digs, Cowboys can't and won't lose this game.

jake del person sucks (now), continue the falcons are on the up and up. easily..

texans, albeit great early in the season, can't compete against the jets. let alone the SB champs in OT, if the texans get in the end zone it will be a miracle...

my 3 picks (ats) are Cowboys, Broncos (vs. a CLE team that has only scored one TD since OCT last year- and you thought the Lions were bad! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAnnnnnnnndddddd da Bears is the other LOCK (10-1 all time vs. stinksburgh)..

c'est la vie!

Pimpin_Rivas
Pimpin_Rivas says:
09/20/09 06:31AM

if you want underdogs,

just take oakland +3, and Arizona +3

easy money :)

ErikThaRed
ErikThaRed says:
09/20/09 07:15AM

Take OAK Straight Up!

Ashton_Grewal
Ashton_Grewal says:
09/20/09 08:01AM

Hey gang,

Thanks for the comments. glyde69 did you watch KC-Balt last week? It was that drive in the fourth quarter that tied the game up at 24-24 that really concerned me. That final score was misleading. It was a close game all the way.

I can see why people like the Ravens today. I might throw a couple units on them too, especially now that Bolts NT Jamal Williams is out for the year. Baltimore should see all kinds of running lanes. I still like the over in that game too, though.

Good luck today guys.

laughnowdiel8tr
laughnowdiel8tr says:
09/20/09 09:21AM

Pats are gonna whip on the jets cause all this talk thats coming from the players an rexy boy an chargers aint charging anymore LT is hurt lights out is not at full strength an no starting center against rock ray.ed.n suggs haha funny but sad for them an kc bowe is a beast n LJs scrub self should have a decent game..............SO MY PICKS FOR TODAY GOTTA GO WIT-------- 1.VICKS 2.RAVENS 3.CHIEFS 4.PATS

laughnowdiel8tr
laughnowdiel8tr says:
09/20/09 09:23AM

VIKES LOL

magicman1642
magicman1642 says:
09/20/09 10:21AM

i think it is an underdog week ( well hoping for the even 8 dogs 8 fav ) but thats still a dog week. some dogs are tuff to figure out, like oak +3 they looked great last week, well great for oak. they havent played an intesnse game like that in years. bal +3 wow even if sd had LT ,i think that would be all the line would be, so without give me bal straight up. i also like jets to cover, lions, alittle under my breath, but i still think that this is one of there biggest games of the saeson. i took the points in carolina, atlanta probably wins this game, but i think carolina will keep it within the number. i took cinny to keep it in single didgits, lets hope they can make some catchs this week, way to many dropped balls last week. then i seen seattle was a dog that is another line that i couldnt understand. sure san fran got it done in arizona, but i think seattle looks awesome this year. they seem to have all elements working at a very high level right now. seattle will go into sf house and show them a few things, i dont expect this one to even be close, and finally i will pick stlouis to keep it in single didgets to. gl all

yoboybigmike
yoboybigmike says:
09/20/09 10:33AM

the ravens are the truh that d is still a force to be mess with they are just a little younger

yoboybigmike
yoboybigmike says:
09/20/09 10:46AM

ashton the ravns are a good solid team give them a primetime rec and it on we still have ray lewis which i think is still one of the best and ed reeds which is the best and a fairly good d line. watch out for us this year.

mrusso
mrusso says:
09/20/09 10:54AM

dog plays today

STL +10, Umm, remember last year?

TB +4.5, Bills Mon night hangover, Bucs ground game, no P.P. for Bills, he'll be missed

OAK +3, road team dominates this ancient division rivalry, OAK can run too

Like the Ravens too, but so does everybody else, don't like that, put 'em on a teaser

mrusso
mrusso says:
09/20/09 10:56AM

Forgot this, Giants +3, will win outright tonight, outmuscling the Boyz'

angrytiger
angrytiger says:
09/20/09 11:03AM

Thanks for your article Ashton and for what it's worth I was shocked to see Kansas City move the ball AT ALL against Baltimore and was one of those lucky beneficiaries who only cashed in when the Ravens decided to go for it on 4th down at the end of that game.

I too was liking the Jets before they decided to roll out their public service announcements about it. It should be fun to watch and I bet they do get a lot of pressure on Mr. Brady, but at this point they've obviously made it too important.

As for this week, the one play I was really liking was the Bears +3 at home v. the Steelers and now that I see that everyone else is loading up on Pittsburgh, I'm starting to feel pretty good about it.

For starters, I think people are overreacting to Jay Cutler's rough start last week for at least three reasons:

1) That Packer defense is for real, and we'll see that more and more as the season continues. Besides shutting down Matt Forte completely, they were able to get pressure on Cutler all day long while that talented secondary finished the job.

2) Cutler's still getting used to his receivers (and Olsen) who I think are actually good enough to provide some real production this season and keep the pressure off the running game.

3) He made a lot of mistakes which, personally, I think were due to the scope of that game; his first, as a Bear, at Lambeau field in a game he knows that everyone's watching. He probably felt he had a lot to prove and tried to make some throws he just won't this week at home.

This is a tough game for Pittsburgh to go and win on the road after what they went through last week. And so I like the Bears to win it out right, but the insurance field goal is awfully nice in game that should stay close down the stretch.

Ashton_Grewal
Ashton_Grewal says:
09/20/09 11:05AM

yoboybigmike,

Maybe I'm concentrating a bit too much on the Ravens' defense. I think I picked SD in our staff picks, but I've reconsidered. I'm going with a big play on Baltimore to win the game straight up.

I really like how Baltimore is passing the ball around on offense. That's part of the reason I think they might be a nice over bet this season.

Ashton_Grewal
Ashton_Grewal says:
09/20/09 11:21AM

Great thoughts there angrytiger,

This is a must-win game too for Chicago. I'd like the Bears a bit more if you could get them at +3.5. It smells like a field goal game to me.

mrusso
mrusso says:
09/20/09 11:38AM

Pitt/Chi smells FG to me too, should be a close game, just hard to bet on Chi/Cutler yet, it may take a few games for some chemistry to develop, clearly there was very little of that last week and even without Troy, not going to get any easier today against rugged Pitt "D''.

Believe if you're looking @ dogs, there a couple better ones today than that one.

Ashton, too early for must wins, lotta' games left, no one team needs to win more than another at this juncture IMO.

findizzle51
findizzle51 says:
09/20/09 12:06PM

hey great advice i would those picks if my hair was looking like yours and if i didint belive the jets would keep it close and i would bet on houston if jeff fischer wasnt calling the shots dude i respect dog bettors but thats nuts he thinks that houston will score a td t

doobiebrother
doobiebrother says:
09/20/09 01:49PM

NFL season 2-2 (-0.4)

3* Browns (+3) over Broncos – Browns clearly have the better team, so no reason not to ride poor Denver trends (0-7 H, 1-9-1 HF 4<). Broncos would have had just 215 total yards at Cincy if not for miracle 87 yard TD pass.

2* Saints/Eagles Over (46) – Philly plays good “D” at home, but Saints hard to stop and have scored at least 20 in 10 of L11 road games. I think Eagles backup QB Kolb will do the job and he has plenty of weapons to work with vs. Saints “D” that had it’s troubles vs. Detroit. Over 4-1 NO L5, 4-1 NO away in Sept., 10-1 NO F 2<, 8-1 NO RF 4<, and 12-3 Philly D 4<.

2* Lions (+10) over Vikings – Detroit is the worst team in the NFL, but they always manage to hang with Vikings here as 6 of L8 meetings have been decided by 5<, and the L10 by 10<. Minnesota has improved their once horrible pass “D” somewhat (#18 LY), but they are still susceptible, and Lions pass game has some weapons. Minnesota 4-14 F 8> (1-6 L7) and 1-6 vs. division. Detroit 4-0 vs. div.

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