The images were ugly. It was like watching an armless midget in a knife fight with Steven Segal. All I could do was cover my eyes and hope it would end soon.
The Washington Redskins were being outclassed in almost every aspect of the game but still trailed the Giants by just 13 points late in the fourth quarter.
All of a sudden, the Redskins were gaining some semblance of momentum moving the ball. When Jason Campbell hit Chris Cooley in the end zone to make the score 20-14 with 1:37 left, I knew my ATS win had been secured.
I had no business collecting payment on that game. I picked the Redskins to cover as 6.5-point dogs, but if the Giants’ red-zone offense hadn’t crapped the bed, the final score would have been more like 40-14.
I’ll take the tainted victory. Back door covers are as essential to underdog bettors as frosted tips are to boy bands.
I’ll get to the doggy picks, but first a few observations from Week 1:
Covers Expert Ted Sevransky noted in the preseason that the Ravens defense didn’t look the same without Rex Ryan calling plays. It’s early, but total bettors should pay attention to how easily the Chiefs moved the ball against Baltimore’s stop unit. I think the Ravens-Chargers game will go well over the posted total (40).
I know that the Patriots look much more vulnerable than they have in years (including last season) but grabbing them at -3.5 at the Jets is too good of value to pass up. There’s a reason this line opened up closer to a touchdown. All the Jets’ yapping during the week only makes fading the J-E-T-S all the more sensible.
Jake Delhomme is a much better quarterback than he’s played in his last two games, but I’m worried his confidence might be rocked. You can’t have your signal caller second guessing all his reads when he drops back. Still, he’s a scrappy dude with a ton of pride. I’m steering the hell clear of that Panthers-Falcons game, but I’ll be watching it closely.
The oddsmakers are giving points to all sorts of good teams this week, so let’s hit them where it hurts… the payment window.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5)
That loss to the Pats isn’t the kind that you just forget about right away. It’s a lingering pain, like a square kick to the nuts.
Buffalo should feel some confidence about the way its offense looked so soon after the switch at coordinator and that was without even using Terrell Owens and Lee Evans much.
The loss of middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is going to hurt the Bills and the defense will be even worse for wear if Terrence McGee, the team’s best cornerback, isn’t able to play.
I liked the ground game I saw from the Bucs last weekend. Their secondary looks a bit shaky, but Dick Jaron is a conservative coach who won’t test Tampa Bay’s defensive backs too often.
Pick: Bucs +5
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
What’s blue, silver and white, and always cracks under pressure?
If you said a robot Bill Buckner you're not entirely wrong.
The answer is the Dallas Cowboys over the last 15 years.
I don’t care if Jerry Jones can squeeze half the state of Texas in his new stadium for Sunday night’s game. It’s not enough to keep me from taking the three points oddsmakers are giving the Giants.
Not having Chris Canty hurts a bit, but New York’s D-line is so versatile with Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. Just think about how many false starts Cowboys LT Flozell Adams is going to be called for Sunday while trying to get a jump on the two Giant defensive ends.
Pick: Giants +3
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
OK, this is the pick I feel the least confident about. Maybe it’s because I know that if the Texans’ offense doesn’t improve at all I can kiss my fantasy football championship season goodbye.
Tennessee looks just as nasty on defense even without the departed Albert Haynesworth, but don’t forget how good Mario Williams and Co. played in the first half against the Jets.
I’m banking on Gary Kubiak calling better plays and Matt Schaub to finish with more than three fantasy points.
Pick: Texans +6.5
Last week: 2-1