Peter Childs is an oddsmaker with Belmont.com.
Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books.
For bookmakers everywhere it was a brutal Sunday followed by a very profitable Monday. On Sunday, there were several big line moves where the public as well as sharp bettors got the best of it.
Most notably were the Eagles, who opened as 1.5-point underdogs to the Panthers and closed field-goal favorites. There was sharp money was on the Eagles in that game early, taking +1.5, pick'em and then laying as much as 1.5 points. By the time Sunday rolled around and the recreational players started firing in, the Eagles were getting all the action and the line eventually climb to -3 in some books.
The most popular bet on Sunday were the Vikings. The Vikings opened as solid 3-point favorites, but that line moved to 3.5 upon the news that Favre was coming back to play. The excitement of Favre and RB Adrian Peterson in the same backfield enticed a lot of bettors. They went to the window with both fists, pounding the Vikings and moving the line to 4.5 points. We did see some value bettors back the Browns at what seemed like a high number for the Vikings to cover on the road, but obviously the Vikings got the money with their 34-20 win. Favre looked very ordinary, Peterson once again looked extraordinary.
Another game that hurt a ton of books was the Redskins’ back-door cover versus the Giants. The Giants had pretty much dominated this game from the start. They were winning by double digits for most of the game, were up 17-0 at home early in the first half. The game looked like it would be a blowout, but instead the Giants let the Skins back in the game.
Jason Campbell's touchdown pass with only 1:30 left in the game put the game on 6, which was the closing number. Pretty much everyone who bet the game either won or pushed. Most bettors who bet the Redskins, bet them +6.5 and they obviously got the cash. Giants bettors laid 6 and pretty much pushed. That late touchdown also pushed the game over the closing total of 37, which again was bad for us. It was just a bad result all around for bookies.
Another game that hurt the books especially hard was the Bears/Packers game. The Packers were solid 3-point favorite about 2 weeks ago but were adjusted to 3.5 after some very impressive preseason games. Early in the week, there was sharp action on the Packers and most books moved them to 4 or 4.5. The public then came in on the Packers and, since the game was a featured Sunday night prime time game, the public backed the favorite and backed them big. We closed the game Packers -5.
It looked like the books were going to get the better of it in this game, as the Packers trailed by one point with less than a minute to play. The Packers were driving the ball and at the very least looked like they would settle for a field goal if the opportunity presented itself. But on a 3rd and 1 on the 50, with only a 1:18 left in the game, the Packers called a great pass play that was good for a touchdown. That TD broke a lot of bookmakers’ backs. That was by far, the biggest play of the weekend for a lot of bettors everywhere.
One ray of sunshine for bookmakers on Sunday were the Denver Broncos. That game opened up a pick'em, with bookmakers not foreseeing how the Broncos offseason was impacting team chemistry. First, the Broncos lost their franchise QB Jay Cutler after he demanded to be traded because of differences with head coach Josh McDaniels. Then WR Brandon Marshall, upset with his contract, was suspended because of conduct detrimental to the team.
The line shot up on this game big time, closing as high as five points at some places. Well, the Broncos not only covered they won the game outright on a very fortunate 87 yard TD pass with only 11 seconds remaining. While the books got this money in this game, it was also the least bet game of the day.
Monday was pure magic for the books. After losing big Sunday, they got most of it back and then some Monday. The Patriots only winning by one point versus the Bills proved huge for bookmakers. That 1-point win killed a ton of teaser money. There were several teasers, as well as parlays, that were tied to the Patriots from Sunday's winning tickets.
Bettors had already won with bets to the Ravens, Saints, Cowboys and Seahawks all who were the more popular teams on Sunday. Knocking out those teasers, including 10-point teasers that didn't cover because the line was 11 or higher all week, was a great start for Monday night. But more importantly, the books cleaned up on straight bets on the Patriots. The Pats opened 10 and closed 13.5 point favorites. Everybody was on the Patriots and the books cleaned up.
The winning continued for bookies when the Chargers won by only four points, but failed to cover the spread. Chargers opened as 7-point favorites and closed 10.5, with over 80 percent of the action on the Chargers. We needed Raider Nation to big in this game. Chargers got the win, but the bookies got the cash on this day.