Blake Edwards is an oddsmaker with Logans.com.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Line/Total: We opened the Patriots -10 and so far all the early action is on the favorite. We moved off 10 and 10.5 about two weeks ago, then went to 11 early last week. With nearly 90 percent of the action on the Patriots, we've gone to 11.5 and I wouldn't be surprised if we close this game 13.
I'm sure we'll attract some buy back if we do get to that number, but we'd open ourselves to getting middled, which would be devastating. We opened the total at 48 and booked sharp action under that number. We're currently dealing 47.5 but with about 75 percent of the action on the over, I believe we'll be going back to 48 at some point today.
Key Injuries:
Bills - DT Spencer Johnson and OL Demetrius Bell have both been upgraded to probable. TE Derek Fine and CB Drayton Florence are both expected to miss. RB Marshawn Lynch is out due to Suspension.
Pats - WR Matthew Slater expected to miss. WR Wes Welker has been upgraded to probable.
Comments: QB Tom Brady will be making his first start since last year's Week 1 knee injury. Going back to 2006, the Patriots are 23-1 in their last 24 regular season games in which Brady starts. In an era parody, that is pretty awesome. The Patriots have dominated the Bills in recent years, going 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in their previous four meetings. Last year both games went under the closing total, but those games were without Brady in the lineup.
In Brady's previous two starts versus the Bills, both games eclipsed the total by an average of 11 points. Tonight marks the first start for his new team of the flamboyant WR Terrell Owens, who only played in one preseason game because the Bills wanted to protect his injured toe.
Prop of the game: Terrell Owens (Bills) total receiving yards - 75.5
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Line/total: The Chargers opened as a 7-point favorite back in early May, when we first posted our NFL Week 1 lines. Since then, we've seen a major move on this game. We moved off 7 after a horrific effort by the Raiders in a preseason game vs. the Saints. The Raiders starting unit looked so bad and so confused on both sides of the ball that we had to move off 7 and went to 7.5.
Then money starting showing on the Chargers and we went from 7.5 to 8.5 and then to 9. Over the weekend we booked significantly more money on the Chargers and went from 9.5 to 10 yesterday. With about 80 percent of the total action on the Chargers, I would expect us to move off 10 at some point today. As for the total, we opened 43 and are currently dealing 42.5. About 75 percent of the early action is on the over.
Key Injuries:
Chargers - DE Jacques Cesaire and LB Kevin Burnett have both been upgraded to Probable. DT Travis Johnson is out indefinitely.
Raiders - WR Nick Miller, WR Javon Walker and OT Khalif Barnes are all listed doubtful tonight. RB Justin Fargas is listed as questionable. CB Nnamdi Asomugha has been upgraded to probable. Recently acquired DE Richard Seymour is listed as probable.
Comments: The Raiders have been one of the worst franchises in all of professional sports in recent years. They've had a carousal of coaches, from Bill Callahan, Norv Turner (now the Chargers head coach), Art Shell, to Lane Kiffin and now Tom Cable.
Since 2002, no Raider head coach has stayed on longer than two years. They are 24-72 since appearing in the Super Bowl back in 2003. That's an average of 4.8 wins a season. The Chargers have owned the Raiders in recent years, beating them 11 straight times by an average margin of 16 points. The Raiders made an interesting trade last week acquiring Richard Seymour from the Patriots. The Raiders are hoping that Seymour will improve the Raiders rushing defense that ranked 31st in the NFL last year, giving up nearly 160 rushing yards a game.
Prop of the game: LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers) total rushing yards - 88.5