Randy Scott is the sportsbook manager at betED.com. He gives us the goods on all the key NFL line movements his book is seeing.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 44)
Where we opened: Falcons -4, O/U: 44
Where the early money is: 85 percent on the Falcons
Comments: The Falcons are the popular team in this one, even at -4, which is somewhat a surprise to us. We do give the Falcons moderate odds to win the game outright at home, but only give them coin-toss odds to cover the points. Matt Ryan will play, but he’s been sick lately.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5, 36)
Where we opened: Ravens -10, O/U: 37.5
Wise action: Under 37.5
Where the early money is: 84 percent on the Ravens
Comments: Wise action on the under is no surprise here for a Ravens home game, also the rise in the line to -12.5 due to Matt Cassel’s leg injury is a natural move. We don’t think the Chiefs can pull off an upset here and we doubt the bettors do either. The line will continue to rise until the betting on the Ravens stops.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (+2.5, 43.5)
Where we opened: Eagles -2.5, O/U: 45
Where the early money is: 80 percent on the Eagles
Comments: This is a tough game to call, but easy to book. The line will move on action only, we should have an even balance by game time. We make this game a toss-up call.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-5, 43)
Where we opened: Bengals -3, O/U: 44.5
Wise Action: Under 44.5
Where the early money is: 80 percent on the Bengals
Comments: Cincy’s line moves from opening -3 to -5 and we agree with it – maybe it’ll raise even more if the action calls for it. We give the Bengals very good odds to cover the spread at home this week. Kyle Orton’s finger could be a big problem for him. A low scoring game is what the wise guys are betting on.
Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (-4, 40)
Where we opened: Vikings -3, O/U: 40
Where the early money is: 76 percent on the Vikings
Comments: Minny’s opening line crosses the key number partly due to the fact no one can stop Adrian Peterson and on the other side Brady Quinn is starting for the Browns. We agree with that move and will look to get off -4 and move it up as soon as the opportunity presents itself. We give the Vikings very good odds to cover this spread on the road.
New York Jets at Houston Texans (-4, 44)
Where we opened: Texans -4, O/U: 43.5
Where the early money is: 95 percent on the Texans
Comments: Nothing to see here except no one’s backing the Jets in Week 1. We don’t blame the bettors either - who would in the first game of the season? Not our bettors. Texans are a strong home team, stronger than the line suggests.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 45)
Where we opened: Colts -7, O/U: 44.5
Where the early money is: 89 percent on the Jaguars
Comments: This is a bit of a surprise; early money on the visiting team, without the Colts being a double-dig favorite. This is a tough call, taking the points here is the right play. However, we think the action will balance by game time and the line stays where it is.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-13, 49)
Where we opened: Saints -11.5, O/U: 49
Where the early money is: 66 percent on the Saints
Comments: Big double digit spread here; we give the Saints only a 50/50 shot at covering 13. Look for the line to drop back down because it won’t take much action on the Lions for us to make that move, even if they are starting a rookie at QB. Saints RB Pierre Thomas (knee) has been downgraded to doubtful.
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 39)
Where we opened: Cowboys -3.5, O/U: 40.5
Wise Action: Cowboys -3.5 & -4
Where the early money is: 72 percent on the Cowboys
Comments: Another tough game to call - road favorites always are. We’ll take the wise guy lead and go with the Cowboys to cover. Balancing the action won’t be easy.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 46)
Opening Line: Cardinals -7, O/U: 47
Wise Action: Under 47
Where the early money is: 92 percent on the 49ers
Comments: All San Fran bets so far. We give the Cards big odds to beat the 49ers opening home game, but to cover the spread is another question. The 49ers will show up. Anquan Boldin (hamstring) is questionable. Little bit of wise stuff on the under, the total is still good to follow at 46.
Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5, 37.5)
Where we opened: Giants -6, O/U: 39
Where the early money is: 71 percent on the Redskins
Comments: Giants line goes from -6 to -6.5 and we take on more Redskin action. This is a very tough one. Sure the Giants should win, but will they cover? We don’t think so. We like the Skin’s chances here.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-9, 41)
Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5, O/U: 43
Wise Action: Seahawks -7.5
Where the early money is: 88 percent is on the Rams
Comments: Seahawks at home, line goes up after Ram’s QB Marc Bulger hurts his finger and was questionable – now he’s probable. Lots of early Rams money, which goes against the wise action.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4, 46.5)
Opening Line: Packers -3.5, O/U: 44
Where the early money is: 85 percent is on the Packers
Comments: All early money on the Packers; it’s hard to agree with that. We give the Bears excellent odds to cover and moderate odds to win this one outright. High scoring is more than expected, it’s a given in this one.