NFL player props worth playing
By
STEPHEN NOVER - Experience, knowledge and contacts spell long term profit
August 13, 2009
8 comments
LAS VEGAS – Some sportsbooks are picking up on the popularity of fantasy football by offering various NFL player propositions.
This is great news for fundamental handicappers, who really study matchups and player projections.
The Venetian is one hotel in Las Vegas offering a multitude of over/under player props.
While the bookmakers there have finally taken down Michael Crabtree and Antonio Bryant after getting pounded on their respective under pass reception totals, other bargains can be found.
Here are some I like:
Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals (Under 25.5 touchdown passes)
What are the odds of the 38-year-old Warner staying healthy two years in a row? It hasn’t happened since 2001. The Cardinals have a new offensive coordinator and are stressing more of a balanced attack. Their ground game should be much improved with Edgerrin James gone and rookie Beanie Wells and promising Tim Hightower getting carries.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders (Under 50.5 receptions)
Rookie wide receivers rarely make an impact. The Raiders are a ground-oriented team with erratic and inaccurate JaMarcus Russell at quarterback. He’s backed up by short-throwing, over-the-hill Jeff Garcia. Heyward-Bey is a deep threat, who is frequently injured.
Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (Over 7.5 rushing/receiving touchdowns)
Gore is primed for a big season. He’s healthy and the 49ers have better receivers than before to keep defenses from stacking the line against him.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (Under 16.5 touchdown passes)
It’s too much to ask Flacco to average more than one touchdown pass per game. Flacco was simply a game-manager last season. He’s having a terrible camp so far, throwing interceptions, missing open receivers and making wrong calls at the line of scrimmage. The Ravens remain a run-first, conservative offense. They also have wide receiver injuries.
Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 74.5 receptions)
Winslow is another guy who gets hurt every year because he’s so reckless. Tampa Bay could have the worst quarterback situation in the league. As a tight end, Winslow will be called on to block a lot.
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (12-1 to have the most passing yards)
Manning is a cinch to throw for at least 4,000 yards. I’d rather have Manning at these odds than Drew Brees at 5-2 or Tom Brady at 6-1.
Eddie Royal, Denver Broncos (70-1 to have the most receiving yards)
The Broncos are going to be throwing a lot because their defense is so bad. Royal is coming into his own as a possession receiver. He also could lead the league in receptions.