Has there ever been a more obvious case of be careful what you ask for?
Giddy Swedes from St. Paul to International Falls are salivating at the prospect of Brett Favre agreeing to quarterback the Vikings this fall.
Makes sense on the surface. Minnesota gets to tell whipping boy Tavaris Jackson to take a hike, Favre finally has his long-sought opportunity to stick it to the Green Bay front office, Minnesota’s season ticket sales return to Fran Tarkenton levels, and bettors in the upper Midwest get rich.
Three out of four ain’t bad. The rich part might not fly.
Handicapper Steve Merril says that Favre’s arrival in Minnesota, which figures to dwarf the impromptu Buffalo airport welcoming for Terrell Owens, will do three things of interest to bettors:
Drop the odds on the Vikings to win the Super Bowl. Increase the over/under season win total. Make Minnesota a worse team.
Oddsmaker Mike Perry figures that with Favre on hand, the Vikings odds of winning the Super Bowl will drop from 12-1 to 10-1 and winning the NFC odds would be reduced from 5-1 to 4-1.
Minnesota is 8-5 to win the NFC North but Favre would shrink that to 7-5, and the regular-season win total (9) stays the same but instead of -145, winning bettors would cash at -170.
Just what will the Vikings be getting when No. 4 elects to arrive at Mankato for what is expected to be the easiest training camp any NFL player has ever experienced? We know that last season Favre had the Jets in the thick of the playoff race until real bad things started to happen right after Thanksgiving.
About the time Favre was throwing his third interception in the season finale against the Dolphins, equipment men were removing his special chair from the Jets locker room and the moving vans were pulling up in front of Eric Mangini’s house.
So the math on Favre shakes down this way for the final five games of the season:
1-4: Jets’ record
Two: Total touchdown passes
Nine: Interceptions
Fifty-six: Completion percentage
By comparison, in his final four games (he was benched for the middle part of the season), Jackson completed 64 percent of his passes for eight touchdowns and one interception. Minnesota won three of four and won the NFC North.
Favre says he played the second half of last season with an injured arm. He had arthroscopic surgery on his right bicep this past June.
At Belmont.com, oddsmaker Peter Childs says that Favre’s arrival in Minnesota has been factored into its calculations.
“In what should be a very competitive division,” says Childs, “we've made the Vikings the favorite to win the NFC North at +160. Would Brett signing increase their chances of winning that division that much? I'm not so sure but we already have the Vikings favored and I wouldn't go much lower than +160 if he does sign.”
Childs says that Belmont will probably not go lower than the current 12-1 listing on the Vikes to win the Super Bowl.
“We're using 12-1 because we've booked so much on the Vikings to win the Super Bowl because of all the Favre hype. If he makes it official, I'm sure we'll book more money at 12-1 but we're already so low at 12-1 I'm not so sure I'd move that number no matter who's playing QB for them.”
With the numbers already adjusted, says Childs, “The real question is if he doesn't, what kind of movement will we see and I'm not so sure how to answer that question at this time. We'll see. Like everything in bookmaking, it’s a very fluid situation.”
Favre is expected to make his decision on whether he’ll return by July 30.