Timing is everything.
Minnesota and Chicago entered the final week of last season at 9-6, each needing a win to get into the playoffs. The Bears ran up against a motivated Houston team, and lost; the Vikings faced a bored Giants club that was resting some starters, and won.
The result: Minnesota in, Chicago out. That simple.
Fast forward to 2009, and it looks like a three-horse race in a division that is unlikely to provide a wild-card entry, giving every one of the 12 division games playoff significance.
Minnesota Vikings
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Under (with Favre) Over (without Favre)
Ok, Brett. We love you. You’re great. No one was ever better. You the man. We’ll name first-born sons after you.
Now will you go away?
Do you really think things would have been different with Favre, and not Tavaris Jackson, under center in that playoff game against the Eagles last January? Then you need to review tapes of the final five games that the Jets played in 2008, or the Packers’ final (playoff) game in 2007.
Will Favre be happy handing off to Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor 30 times, and completing 8 to 10 passes in a 14-10 victory?
Uh, no.
Besides Favre, much of the Vikings off-field drama has centered on the four-game suspensions for defensive linemen Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. They’re fighting the suspensions in court (Roger Goodell must love that). The two D-tackles won’t be suspended anytime soon thanks to a resent ruling from Judge Gary Larson.
Rookie wideout Percy Harvin is off to a great start. In February Harvin tested positive for marijuana at the scouting combine, then followed that up by missing the league rookie symposium and Vikings rookie camp due to illness. He should fit right in well with the Vikes.
Surprising stat: Despite Minny's struggle passing the ball, the club still completed 12 plays of 40 yards or more through the air, good for fourth best in the league.
Chicago Bears
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Over
Poor Jay Cutler. He shoots his way out of Denver, is treated like a pharaoh as he struts into Chicago, and is still only the No. 2 diva in a division, behind Favre.
But Cutler has excited the masses in Chicago, who look at the Bears roster that has halfway decent talent and an NFC North division that is eminently winnable.
Forget that Cutler was the architect of that monumental collapse that cost the Broncos a playoff spot last season, or that he had his fingers crossed behind his back when he said that no, he actually didn’t ask to be traded. None of that matters to Bears fans, who envision Cutler firing passes all over Soldier Field.
Cutler’s receivers (Greg Olsen, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett) could be the worst group in the entire league. Any success Cutler has throwing should make things easier for running back Matt Forte, who stayed healthy all last season and finished seventh in the league in rushing.
Defensively, the Bears have issues. Tommie Harris is a stud tackle, but could use some help on a D-Line that needs to get to the quarterback more. Brian Urlacher may not be at 100 percent after neck surgery and Lance Briggs may be the best LB on the team.
Problems accelerate away from the line of scrimmage, though, and lots of eyes will be on the secondary. Only San Diego and Seattle gave up more passing yards last season.
Surprising stat: Three times last season Matt Forte rushed for more than 100 yards in a game. All were on artificial turf (Indianapolis, Detroit and St. Louis).
Green Bay Packers
Projected win total: 8.5
Prediction: Under
When your team has enough offensive juice to put up 419 points in a season and still doesn’t get a sniff of the playoffs, even Bud Selig could tell you where the fault lies.
To cure its defensive problems the Packers hired Dom Capers away from the Patriots. Capers plans to move the Pack to a 3-4 defense, using first-round draft choices on DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews. The 3-4 will also enable LB A.J. Hawk to run wilder and make plays.
How fast GB’s young defense can make the adjustment will probably determine whether or not the Pack can get to 9-7 or 10-6 and into the upper echelon of the North.
Assuming halfway decent health, Aaron Rogers can be plugged in at QB for the next decade. Rogers was easily the best QB in the division last season, and his numbers (4,308 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs and 63 percent completion average) pretty much were what GB got out of Favre in 2007, without the drama.
The under is the play here only under the assumption that it will take time to adjust to the new defensive formation.
Surprising stat: The Packers were 3-7 ATS in non-NFC North games last season.
Detroit Lions
Projected win total: 4.5
Prediction: Under
It all starts (and perhaps ends) with protecting the quarterback, be it Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford.
If new coach Jim Schwartz likes what he sees from the offensive line halfway through the exhibition season, chances seem good that the Lions will see what they have in Stafford. If not, Culpepper draws the short straw and will have the opportunity to get ripped to shreds.
Assuming Stafford moves right in, the Lions will probably shrink the playbook and keep it basic until the game starts to slow down, in much the same way the Steelers did when Ben Roethlisberger was a rookie.
Lions fans fantasizing about a vertical offense centered around Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson will have to wait until the line and the running game get sorted.
The Lions have made a few moves to improve a defense that has progressively given up more points in each of the last four years, maxing out at 517 (33-plus per game) last season.
Linebackers Larry Foote and Julian Peterson, plus cornerback Philip Buchanan, are newcomers and will hopefully make the Lions D strong enough so thousands will not vomit their turkey dinners on Thanksgiving afternoon.
Surprising stat: The Lions won all of their exhibition games last season.