It pays to pay attention to the little guys.
In the last 10 seasons, 45 teams from non-BCS conferences have finished in the Top 10 of ATS winning percentages.
In 2006, the MAC, WAC, Mountain West and Conference USA produced the top four ATS winners, with Central Michigan leading the way at an impressive 11-2 mark against the number.
Last year, it was Ball State and TCU putting up profitable seasons at 9-3 and 8-3 ATS respectively.
Which small conference teams will be the biggest moneymakers this season?
Here are five candidates:
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
The Golden Eagles finished strong in coach Larry Fedora's first season, winning their last five games including a thrilling bowl victory over a solid Troy squad.
A whopping 19 starters return, highlighted by playmakers RB Damion Fletcher and WR DeAndre Brown.
Brown's health will be a key factor for the Eagles. The 6-foot-6, 228-pound dynamic sophomore broke his leg in the bowl game, but has said he plans to be at full speed for the opener.
If he's back and healthy to team up with returning starting quarterback Austin Davis, Conference USA's suspect secondaries will be in store for a long year.
Nevada Wolf Pack
Look out Notre Dame. A talented and explosive Wolf Pack is headed your way to open the season in South Bend on September 5.
With Boise State garnering the vast majority of the WAC publicity, Nevada could be a great value throughout the season.
The Wolf Pack is strong on both lines and has an NFL-caliber quarterback in junior Colin Kaepernick.
They averaged 37.6 points last season, but surrendered 32.3 points per game. The defensive struggles can be pinned on a switch to the 4-3 defense. With a year to get used to the system, Nevada's defense certainly should be improved.
Florida International Golden Panthers
With 16 returning starters, the Golden Panthers could be a real sleeper. FIU went a combined 1-23 in 2006 and 2007 and started last season with three straight losses. But the Panthers turned things around and, if not for a 57-50 triple-overtime loss to Florida Atlantic, FIU would have been bowl eligible.
Head coach Mario Cristobal has used the contacts he made as an assistant at Miami to recruit some promising instate talent, like sophomore wide out T.Y. Hilton, one of the fastest players in the nation.
Senior quarterback Paul McCall is back for his second season as starter and will have the luxury of playing behind a senior-laden offensive line that returns all five starters.
Eastern Michigan Eagles
The Eagles haven't had a winning record in 15 years and aren't expected to break that streak this year. Most publications have them picked last in the MAC West.
That's what makes EMU all the more attractive for bettors this season.
With 17 returning starters, new head coach Ron English, a longtime Michigan defensive coordinator, has the potential to put together a big-time turnaround. It might not show up in the win column, but it could at the betting window.
Senior quarterback Andy Schmitt is solid and versatile. He led the Eagles to an upset of Central Michigan to finish last season and will get some looks from the NFL.
Schmitt will be joined by his top two running backs from last season and his top wide out, all-conference candidate Jacory Stone. The offense also boasts a solid line, featuring four returning starters.
English should have a major impact on what was an awful defense last season.
EMU may not break its string of losing seasons, but the Eagles will be more competitive, which should pay dividends against the spread.
UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
The Mountain West looks wide open, with perennial powers BYU, Utah and TCU each trying to replace major pieces.
That could open the door for UNLV, a team that was better than last year's 5-7 record (7-5 ATS) indicated.
Fourteen starters return from last year's squad, which won at Arizona State and against Iowa State in consecutive weeks to start the season.
The loss of quarterback Omar Clayton in late October was a factor in the poor finish. Things hit rock bottom in the season finale, with a 42-21 loss at San Diego State, one of the worst teams in the nation last year. The loss cost the Rebels their first bowl berth since 2000 and should act as motivation to start this season.
Clayton is expected to be ready to go by August and will be one of the top quarterbacks in the Mountain West. He'll benefit from having all-conference receiver Ryan Wolfe back as well.
The Runnin’ Rebels have seven home games this season. They are 11-5 as a home dog under coach Mike Sanford, who is likely coaching for his job this season.
--
Got your eye on a small conference team that could put up big ATS numbers this season? Let us know as well as what you think about our picks.