Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals (-110)
A chink in the armor
The Pittsburgh Penguins are finally finding a way to get to Simeon Varlamov. While the Russian rookie can’t be blamed for all five of the goals in Game 4, there certainly were a few he would have liked to have back.
Late in Game 3 Penguins forward Maxim Talbot leaned over to Sidney Crosby and said, “Varlamov is a good goalie, but I think we can beat him.” Talbot walked the walk in Game 4, scoring the insurance marker late in the third period.
Varlamov did answer the bell the last time his team was trying to avoid a three-game losing streak. After the Capitals lost two in a row to open the playoffs against the Rangers, Varlamov made 33 saves in a shutout effort so look for him to be poised and ready for Game 5.
Love the over
The Penguins offense continues to gain momentum mostly because Sidney Crosby’s supporting cast has decided to show up. If Washington can’t tighten things up defensively, bettors may see the rest of the series follow in the path of Game 4 and every single regular-season meeting between the two clubs - run and gun.
The two clubs have finished over the total in 16 of their last 21 meetings including 11 of 13 in Washington. Overall this year, six of the eight contests have finished over and the two games that didn’t missed it by just a single goal.
Back to back
Playing back-to-back games in the postseason is almost unheard of in the past decade but the Capitals and Penguins will do it again Saturday night. After some bad blood late in Game 4, that intensity could continue into Game 5 and if either team loses their cool there could be some early power-play opportunities.
Playing on no rest seems to be a slight advantage for the Capitals. Not only are the Caps at home for Game 5 they also were 7-6 in back-to-back situations this year while the Penguins finished 5-8 in that scenario.
Gonchar out?
The biggest developing story line heading into Game 5 will be the status of Sergei Gonchar. Gonchar was helped off the ice after a knee-on-knee hit by Alexander Ovechkin Friday and there is now word if he will be ready for Saturday.
“I tried to hit him with my shoulder and he just moved left and his legs were in the same position,” Ovechkin told reporters following the Game 4.
Pens coach Dan Bylsma didn’t agree with Ovechkin’s assessment of the play.
“I think it was knee cap on knee cap, the league reviews these things and will see what happens,” Bylsma told the press.
According to TSN hockey analyst Bob MacKenzie, the play has been reviewed by the league and no disciplinary action will be taken.
Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks (-150, 5)
Change of scenery, change of style
As the series shifts back to Vancouver, bettors may see another shift in the style of play. The two games on the West Coast turned out to be run and gun while the two in Chicago were, for the lack of a better term, boring.
The total in the first two games was set at five goals but after the two teams crushed it by combining for 17 goals, the line moved up to 5.5 for Game 3. The slow pace in Chicago led to just four goals in Game 3 and that dropped the line back down to five for Game 4.
Now as they head back to Vancouver the total remains at five and doesn’t really reflect the 17 combined goals we saw in the opening games.
In-play advantage
If you plan on betting live or in between periods during the game you may want to cheer for Vancouver to strike first. A goal for the Canucks would certainly increase the value on the Hawks as they have been great in the comeback department so far this postseason.
Vancouver has scored the first goal in all four games but the Hawks have managed to comeback and tie it up three times and went on to win twice. Chicago at +130 is pretty tempting as it is, but if you wait for them to fall behind by one you could really cash in if the comeback kids strike again.
The 2-goal spread
It’s hard to believe but Game 4 was the first time in their eight meetings this season that the Hawks and Canucks played a one-goal game.
The weird stat of the day is that in six of the eight games, the underdog sitting on a puckline of +1.5 easily covered the spread and actually won the game by two goals or more.
Beat up Canucks
Vancouver’s offense hasn’t been nearly as potent in the past two games and that is in large part due to the absence of Sami Salo on the back end.
Salo had six points in five games before being sidelined lower body injury. Salo is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game. Kevin Bieksa is probable for Saturday while Pavol Demitra is not expected to be ready.