Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan State Spartans (+4.5, 134)
At Ford Field in Detroit
Josh Nagel is a writer based in Nevada and has been covering the West Regional for us during the Tournament.
Why the Huskies cover:
The Huskies were the best road team in the country this season, with a loss at Pittsburgh the only blemish on their record. If Huskies lose, it won’t be because they couldn’t handle the pressure.
The Huskies also have been solid in the late going at the free-throw line, hitting 10-of-10 against Missouri in the final minute, a good sign for team that often struggles at the line.
The Spartans have received an outstanding effort from versatile forward Goran Suton on their path to the Final Four, but UConn can counter him with two excellent defenders in Stanley Robinson and Jeff Adrien.
Although Michigan State is excellent at forcing the game to be played at its preferred half-court, rugged tempo, the Huskies have shown they are versatile enough to win even while spotting the opposition its choice of pace. They beat Purdue in 72-60 in the regional semifinals in a game that resembled a scrappy Big Ten tilt, and defeated Missouri 82-75 in the final in much more wide-open affair.
UConn’s defense on Lucas and Suton will be key; if the Huskies force a third Spartan to pick up the scoring slack, Michigan State will have a difficult time generating enough offense to win.
Why they won't:
Because it’s not often you get to reach a Final Four with a 70,000-fan advantage, and coach Tom Izzo and the Spartans surely have designs on making the most of it.
Like UConn coach Jim Calhoun, Izzo also is a seasoned Final Four veteran and noted master of game-planning for a specific opponent on short notice. He’s bound to find a way to keep the Spartans close and either team can win a tight game.
Expect Izzo to roll out all sorts of set plays and schemes designed to minimize Connecticut’s strengths, including pick-and-pop type plays with Suton to draw Thabeet away from the basket, and others designed to get the UConn center in foul trouble.
What will happen:
This will likely be a low-scoring game marked by low field-goal percentages because both teams play excellent defens. Many Final Four contests feature poor shooting, particularly in the first half when nerves are at their peak, and when you throw in the adjusted depth perception because of the enormous venue, it’s possible the first half could end in the teens or low 20s.
The longer it stays low scoring and ugly, the better for the Spartans. If they can hold down UConn with a few big stops and score some baskets of their own, they could put on performance similar to their upset of Louisville.
However, UConn presents more challenges and has more depth than the Cardinals. The Huskies have looked like a team destined for the title game since the opening tip and, similar to a few of their other battles, they might emerge from this one bloodied and bruised but with their hands raised in victory.
Final score prediction: Connecticut 65, Michigan State 61
David Jones has worked as a capper and oddsmaker in the sports betting industry. He also covered the Midwest Regional for us throughout the Tournament.
Why Michigan State will cover:
Fans all across the state of Michigan will converge in Detroit to support the Spartans. With crowds expected to exceed 70,000, the support will help the underdogs from nearby East Lansing.
The Michigan State coach Tom Izzo is making his fifth trip to the Final Four. He knows the routine of this spectacle and will have his team focused on the task at hand instead of the sideshow.
The Spartans allow the fewest opposition rebounds (25.2 per game) of any team in the nation and have a rebound differential of 10.4. The control of the boards enables the defense to thrive while giving the offense extra chances to score.
The team's ATS record (20-12-1) indicates a team that is reliable. In away/neutral games, Michigan State's spread record is 7-2-1 (4-0 in NCAA tournament).
Why Michigan State will not cover:
UConn guard guard A.J. Price (14.7 ppg, 4.8 apg) can effectively counter Lucas in the backcourt. At 7-foot-3, center Hasheem Thabeet (13.5 ppg, 10.9 rpg) is a major obstacle in the middle. His presence (4.2 blocked shots per game) has enabled the Huskies to hold opponents to under 38 percent shooting from the field.
Jim Calhoun is a great a coach and will have his players ready. In 1999 and 2004, Connecticut won the West regional to reach the Final Four and ultimately won the NCAA championship. The five-year pattern seems to be guiding the Huskies again. What region did Connecticut win to reach Detroit? Yes, it was the West Regional.
What will happen:
The defenses will control the game. Don't be surprised if both squads shoot less than 40 percent from the field. The winner of the guard battle between Lucas and Price should decide the outcome. The two championship coaches will likely balance each other out.
The energy in the building will help the underdog Spartans. However, the real difference maker in the game will be Thabeet. The Huskies advance in a defensive war but the Spartans make it awfully close.
Final score prediction: Connecticut 64, Michigan State 62