At the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
Connecticut Huskies vs. Missouri Tigers (+5.5, 150)
Missouri’s breakout season and run to the Elite Eight has been a nice sidebar in the NCAA tournament. Connecticut’s dominance has been the lead headline.
After they face each other for a trip to the Final Four Saturday, neither story should change.
Both clubs rolled in their Sweet 16 contests, Connecticut toppling Purdue 72-60 and Missouri dismantling the nation’s stingiest defense in a 102-91 romp over Memphis.
Even so, each result spells bad news for the Tigers. For starters, UConn practically slept walk through its game against a gritty Purdue club and still won by double figures.
Guard A.J. Price was just 5-for-15 from the field, getting most of his points late in the second half. Hasheem Thabeet got 15 points and 15 rebounds despite looking disinterested a good portion of the night.
Jeff Adrien missed all the wide-open 15-footers, which were cash over the past few weeks, and the Huskies turned the ball over repeatedly while generally looking out of sync.
They were fortunate that Purdue struggled to hit shots or they might have been in trouble. You can count on coach Jim Calhoun emphasizing the point that another such sub-par performance will result in a trip home.
It’s not going to happen against Missouri, which saw all five starters score in double figures. It broke down the Memphis defense with surprising ease on its way to a 24-point lead, then held on for dear life as Memphis fought back.
The Tigers, like every team that faces the Huskies, will have matchup problems, but maybe more than most. This is because everything they like to do, on both ends of the floor, is negated by Connecticut’s strength.
Purdue learned the hard way that full-court pressure isn’t the way to rattle the Huskies. The Boilermakers tried it a few times in the second half and it resulted in uncontested dunks which took Purdue out of the game. The Huskies are athletic and gifted enough to punish Missouri’s pressure with easy layups.
Missouri’s offense relies on DeMarre Carroll and J.T. Tiller getting into the lane and making something happen with either a driving shot attempt or a dump-off pass. Thabeet will wipe away all such forays into the paint. Missouri will be forced to take more outside shots than it wants. Matt Lawrence, who scored 13 against Memphis, is Missouri’s main outside threat. He will have to step up for the Tigers to have a chance.
Taking Thabeet out of the game with foul trouble would free up the lane, but also would result in trips to free throw line, where Missouri struggles.
In the end, all signs point toward a Connecticut victory and a trip to the Final Four.
Final score prediction: Connecticut 88, Missouri 76