South Region Semifinals. All games in Memphis
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Syracuse Orange (+1, 153)
Oklahoma has the weapons to attack Syracuse’s zone defense. But so did Arizona State. The Sun Devils shot 40.8 percent against the Orange and exited the tournament.
Coach Jim Boeheim didn’t think it was his defense that won the Arizona State game, though.
“They scored against us and hit some shots,” Boeheim said on ESPN Radio, “but they just didn’t stop us.”
The Sooners also should be able to find points against the Orange’s zone. The Griffin brothers, Blake and Taylor, work the high/low post game well. Guards Willie Warren and Austin Johnson are capable 3-point shooters and keep an eye on Cade Davis coming off the bench. He’s got the size to shoot over Syracuse’s perimeter defenders and can get hot quickly.
Also don’t be surprised to see Oklahoma try to run a little more, attacking the basket before Syracuse can set up its defense. Both Griffins run the floor exceptionally well.
Syracuse certainly doesn’t mind an up-tempo game, either. Six of its last seven games have gone over the total.
Statistically, the Sooners and Orange are two evenly matched teams, which makes the 1-point spread seem like a sharp line.
Both teams can shoot the lights out. Oklahoma is second in the nation in field goal percentage; Syracuse is sixth.
With Blake Griffin on the inside, the Sooners are a better rebounding team. Give the edge to Syracuse’s backcourt, though.
Neither team is great at the free throw line.
Final Score prediction: Syracuse 82, Oklahoma 78
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (-8.5, 162.5)
Normally, college games from two years ago offer very little handicapping value. Gonzaga’s win over North Carolina in the 2006 preseason NIT might be an exception.
Eight players from that game (three Zags, five Tar Heels) will face off again tonight, with more than an NIT championship on the line.
If anything, the Zags’ 82-74 win over Carolina shows that they can matchup with the Tar Heels, both on the perimeter and in the paint.
Gonzaga’s guards, particularly Matt Bouldin, have the size to contend with Carolina’s Wayne Ellington and Danny Green. The athletic Jeremy Pargo should be able to hang with Ty Lawson, as well.
On the inside, Josh Heytvelt helped hold Tyler Hansbrough to single digits in 2006, something the Tar Heel center has experienced only eight times in his entire career.
Few expect another Gonzaga upset, though. But the 8.5 points is attractive, especially considering the Tar Heels’ struggles against the spread this season.
North Carolina was just 11-19 ATS heading into the NCAA tournament. They are 1-5 ATS when favored by less than 10 points this season.
But Roy Williams’ squad, as expected, has taken things up a notch in the Big Dance.
After wins over Radford and LSU, the Tar Heels have now covered in their last five NCAA tournament games.
The return of Lawson certainly helped against LSU. Behind a big second half from their starting point guard, the Tar Heels pulled away from LSU for a 14-point win.
Lawson, who had 23 against LSU, had four complete days to rest his toe and says he’ll be ready to go against Gonzaga.
The lone common opponent this season is Maryland. Gonzaga crushed the Terrapins in November. The Tar Heels went 1-1 against Maryland, losing in overtime in February.
With the amount of talent that oozes from the powder blue, it’s extremely difficult to go against the Tar Heels. But those who have bet against them this season have reaped the benefits.
Final score prediction: North Carolina 88, Gonzaga 83