The BCS Championship pits the top two conferences in the land against each other for the national title.
The SEC's Florida Gators have been unstoppable since an upset loss back in September while the Big 12's Oklahoma Sooners prevailed after rolling through the toughest schedule in football.
Covers Experts' Steve Merril and the Miller Group's Sean Murphy take off the gloves and debate their picks for the BCS title game. Merril has faith in the Gators while Murphy believes in the Sooners. One thing is for certain Thursday: College football bettors are in for a treat.
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Florida Gators (-4.5, 69.5)
Sam Bradford
Murphy: The reigning Heisman Trophy winner was the nation’s best passer by a long shot this season, throwing for over 4,400 yards, 48 touchdowns and only six interceptions. His success was no fluke when you consider he threw 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions as a freshman last year. He has displayed outstanding poise in the pocket and has just enough mobility to handle the Florida pass rush. The Gators can’t afford to fall asleep at the wheel as Bradford ran for four touchdowns this season.
Big 12 failure
Merril: The Big 12 has been a major disappointment so far this bowl season, going just 2-4 ATS. Kansas and Nebraska have covered the pointspread but the higher profile teams like Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas have all underperformed and stand a combined 0-4 ATS. The most notable game was last Friday when Mississippi from the SEC thoroughly outplayed Texas Tech.
Motivation
Murphy: After getting crushed by West Virginia in last year’s Fiesta Bowl, the Sooners are hungry for redemption. With the exception of running back Allen Patrick, the majority of their offensive weapons are back and eager to erase the memory of that performance. Remember, they scored only 15 points through the first three quarters in that game. They’ll be facing a tougher test but there’s no question they’ve matured a lot since last season. Preparation will be key and this time, I think they’re ready.
SEC success
Merril: While the Big 12 has faltered, the SEC has performed extremely well so far this bowl season with a combined 5-2 ATS record. This includes outright underdog wins by four different teams as LSU, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi all pulled the straight-up wins.
A down year for the SEC
Murphy: There’s no question it was a down year for the SEC at least by its own standards. In recent seasons it has been the pinnacle of college football conferences but that wasn’t the case this year. With LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas and Kentucky all dropping off, the Gators didn’t face the toughest path to the championship. They outlasted Alabama in the SEC title game but we all saw what happened to the Tide against Utah in the Sugar Bowl.
Injuries
Merril: Florida is getting healthy as both running back Chris Rainey and wide receiver Percy Harvin are listed as probable and expected to play. Meanwhile, Oklahoma will be without running back DeMarco Murray who is out with a hamstring injury. This is a major loss as Murray is second on the team with 1,002 rushing yards this season and averages 5.6 yards per carry with 14 rushing touchdowns.
Sooners’ tough schedule
Murphy: The Big 12 returned to prominence across all fronts in 2008. With that, the Sooners had to go though the gauntlet to get here. They faced the best the conference had to offer in Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Missouri. Not only that, they also penciled in a couple of tough non-conference tilts with Cincinnati and TCU, games they won handily by a combined 87-36 margin. Their only blemish was a loss to Texas but everyone is allowed one hiccup. Why don’t you ask Florida about its loss to Ole Miss.
Defense
Merril: Both teams have explosive offensive units but Florida is the much better defensive squad. The Gators allow just 12.8 points per game and only 4.4 yards per play while Oklahoma permits a much weaker 24.5 points per game and 5.1 yards per play.
Is anyone giving Oklahoma a chance?
Murphy: You’ll be hard pressed to find many Oklahoma backers heading into this game. With the books dangling out a relatively short line, the Gators are receiving a ton of love from both the betting public and sharps alike. Is it really that easy? Could we be in for a repeat of two years ago when the sheep were led to the slaughter by heavily favored Ohio State against these same Florida Gators? I guess those questions will be answered Thursday night.
Bowl records
Merril: Both head coaches have won national titles but Florida’s Urban Meyer has performed much better in recent bowl games than Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops. It has been eight years since Stoops won the national title and he is just 1-4 straight up the past five years in bowl games including losing outright as near-touchdown favorites the past two years. Meanwhile, Florida won the BCS title two years ago and overall Urban Meyer is 4-1 SU/ATS in all bowl games the past five years as the head coach of both Utah and Florida.