What bettors need to know: Fiesta Bowl

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns

Location: University of Phoenix Stadium

Line movement

Most books in Vegas and offshore opened with the Longhorns favored by double digits with some shops giving the Buckeyes 10.5 or 11 points. Since then the line has moved to -8 and can be found at -7.5. It doesn’t appear oddsmakers are prepared to let the line get south of the touchdown mark.

The total can be found anywhere between 51.5 and 54. Fifty-three seems like the most common number shops are offering.

Motivation

The Longhorns are still seething that they are playing in the Fiesta Bowl while Oklahoma – a team Texas beat by 10 points on a neutral field – plays in the national championship game against Florida.

“We were disappointed. We’re human,” quarterback Colt McCoy told reporters. “But that’s not how it turned out, and great teams overcome that.”

The last time the Horns were upset by their bowl placement, they lost to Washington State 38-20 in the 2003 Holiday Bowl despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

A dominant performance against Ohio State could propel Texas to the No. 1 ranking for the 2009 season.

Of course the eight senior starters are just hoping to leave on a winning note.

“This is our last game wearing the Longhorn helmet,” senior defensive end Brian Orakpo said. “Let’s not hold back nothing.”

Ohio State doesn’t have to do as much searching to find reason to fight. The Big Ten has taken a major blow in bowl competition over the past few years.

The conference has lost five of its six postseason matches this season and is 15-27 straight up in bowl appearances since 2003.

Of course the Buckeyes are responsible for the two most embarrassing setbacks. Ohio State was outclassed by SEC teams in the past two BCS title games.

Contrasting Styles

Both football programs mirror the offensive approach of their conferences. Ohio State, like most Big Ten schools, loves to run the ball in all situations.

The Buckeye unit is led by duel-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor and power back Chris “Beanie” Wells. The junior ran for over 1,000 yards and eight touchdowns despite sitting out three games this season.

“He (Wells) is by far the best back we’ll see this year,” Horns coach Mack Brown said earlier this week. “He is a game-changer.”

Texas tops the Big 12 in run defense allowing just 2.8 yards per carry, but that was against many pass-happy opponents.

The Longhorns love to spread the field with multiple receiver sets and most snaps come out of the shotgun formation. This style of offensive attack has proved difficult for OSU to stop over the past few seasons.

Kid’s Play

Ohio State’s Pryor – a true freshman – grabbed the starting job under center after three unimpressive showings from senior Todd Boeckman. He was the most sought after high school recruit after a dominating high school career.

Pryor’s confidence can sometimes be perceived as cockiness. He took some heat earlier this season for informing press members the college game was as easy as high school.

Since then coach Jim Tressel has limited his QB’s media obligations. The coach recently took some criticism for omitting Pryor from the 30 OSU players made available to the pres

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Posted by StraightDope
4 years ago

I was wrong. Never thought they would allow Buckeyes to run over and over without trying to overload the line against it.
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Posted by StraightDope
4 years ago

Ohio State is not a good passing team. They can run the ball, surely. But give a Def Coordinator with half a brain a month to prepare and he can stuff the run and force the pass. When Texas gets up by double digits this thing will spiral out of control for the Buckeyes. All the things they are saying about the Buckeyes (great defense and power running game) are the same things they said in their last two bowl games--and OSU got behind and got blown out by dynamic offenses. Same thing here. TEXAS BY 20
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Posted by clevelandbrowns
4 years ago

ohio state +9.5 ohio state ml+290 and under 52
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Posted by StraightDope
4 years ago

QUICK THING ABOUT THE CFB DEFENSIVE STATS The defensive stats comparison between teams in different conferences can be decepetive since teams play such varied schedules. In this case it is almost worthless as Texas played pass happy and above average passing teams (Oklahoma, TTECH, Kansas, Misszu, & Rice) and blew out all opponents but Tech & Oklahoma. Consequently, the combination of pass first teams, good offenses, and blowouts, means less rushes; less rush attempts, leading to more passing attempts, equals more passing yards. SMOKE 1339--That's why Texas has given up 100+ more yards in the air than Ohio State. Not b/c their pass defense is so bad and run defense so great.
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Posted by donny07
4 years ago

texas n under
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Posted by searzy
4 years ago

Indrep-you don't even know the half of it. I am over the top competitive, and my wife is just as bad as me, although a little more subdued. Although, we do have a 6 yr old and an 8yr old, and the first thing they say to the inlaws when we see them is ou"SUCKS" lol----Just a liitle brain washing in the very early years. We were married the year before Texas lost 4 in a row to ou. That year they won, and I was a very, very bad winner, and then had to live through hell the next 4 years. That is why I just can't bring myself to root for a bunch of boys that grew up in Texas and went north to play for the Biggest County in Texas.
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Posted by Tyler_Reed
4 years ago

I like Texas alot for this game - just for the fact that after what USC did to Penn State and the National Championship game not even being played yet . . .people are already talking the talk of who will be voted #1 by the end of the year. . . Texas will play this one like it's the national championship b/c of McCoys leadership --- I think Ohio State has to rely too much on Pryor's athletic ability way too much in this game for the freshman to hold up against a very good (albeit) Big 12 Defense, hahhaa
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Posted by indrep
4 years ago

searzy - It must be wicked at your place during football season. Sorry to hear that you spent the Holidays in Oklahoma. Ouch!!!
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Posted by lilmoneyman
4 years ago

ya sorry your right. Either way 1 point game. 38-37. The totals have been everywhere but the finals have been close.
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Posted by searzy
4 years ago

lilmoneyman---Texas beat Michigan in the Rose Bowl. You may have meant that???
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Posted by lilmoneyman
4 years ago

Since the Mack brown has been with the Horns they have not beat a Big 10 or little 10 team by more then 3 points. They Beat the Buckeyes a few years back 25-22, then lost as mentioned above the next year. They Squeezed by Iowa in the Alamo Bowl a couple years ago by 2 and then all they way back to the Vince Prior, I mean Young days they lost to Michigan by 1 in the Rose Bowl. May not mean much but with a 8.5 point spread and the fact these 2 teams played about as much as Texas has played any other Big 12 opponent in the last 3 years, I gotta lean with the Buckeyes on the spread.
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Posted by joopi408
4 years ago

Texas and Over tonight! Money in the bank, Ohio State is way overated by the biased media who loves the Big Ten and SEC and barely notice non BCS teams like Utah (moneyline winner for me) or the Pac 10 who is a perfect 5-0 in bowl season....
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Posted by joeythetuna
4 years ago

final score TEXAS 38 Ohio State 20
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Posted by searzy
4 years ago

Indrep, I actually hope you are right about the florida stomping of -ou-. I messed up and married a damn--sooner---LOL dont ask me how, because i bleed orange. I know I should be behnd the big 12 for that game, but having to spend all of the holdays in Stinklahoma, and having to listen to all of the inlaws, is way to heavy for me. The only Texas lose came after a 4 game stretch against teams in the top 11 which hasn't been done since 1936, back to back to back toback, ending in Lubbock. Say what you want to say about the Raiders, but they play a different game at home. Texas was without their best defensive lineman, and cosby was out on offense.. They still should have won , instead of sleeping through the first half. Texas wins by 14---take care
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Posted by babit27
4 years ago

TEXAS by at least 2 TD.
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Posted by phobanbud
4 years ago

Point #6 for smoke above makes me laugh. There was literally NOTHING impressive about the Iowa stomping of the Gamecocks. The only thing impressive was that South Carolina was allowed to play in a bowl game! Wisconsin was chewed up. Michigan State lost by double digits to a GA team who underachieved all year and lost to a GA Tech team that was DEMOLISHED by a poor LSU team. Minnesota couldnt keep up with Kansas spread offense. I will give you Northwestern, but as anyone who lives in Illinois will tell you, that game was 100% MOTIVATION driven. NU's team goal was to win a bowl game. They came out angry. Missouri clearly did not want to be there, as was reported by Missouri's press and the whole country before the game. Texas doesnt have a motivation issue. They want this game. Statemen game for them that the deserved National Championship consideration, and want to be pre-ranked #1 next year. Mccoy needs to step up if he wants to be the front runner for next years Heisman. If you are going to say Texas' running stats are padded because of their division, I could say the same thing about OSU stats playing against offensive juggernauts in the Big Ten. I see OSU struggling to contain a 5 WR spread and a mobile QB. Horns by 2 scores!
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Posted by indrep
4 years ago

wow searzy - I admit I do like the sauce, however 8 1/2 is WAY to many points in this tilt. Big 10 does suck, however the Big 12 it not that great either. When Florida stomps Oklahoma, my point will be made. Ole Miss, Oregon, and even Northwestern proved my point that the Big 12 lacks defense. I look forward to your comments tomorrow after Ohio State covers and very possibly wins outright.
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Posted by mvp12331233
4 years ago

GO BUCKEYES!!!!!!!!!!
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Posted by smoke1399
4 years ago

I think this is going to be a great game, and I'll gladly take the points. Yes the big 10 has not been impressive lately and teams from there are just 1-5 in bowls so far....but look deeper.... 1)PSU lost to USC in their back yard just about.....who wouldn't? 2)Northwestern(usually among the bottom teams in big 10)lost to a big 12 team, Missouri, in OVERTIME 3)Minnesota(which also greatly exceeded expectations this year) lost to a Kansas team that was healthier than they were all season, similar to as healthy when they lost one game last year 4)Michigan State gave Georgia a game, an SEC team with title expectations this year 5)Wisconsin.....ok, i'll give you that one 6)Iowa(which lost 4 games by a total of 12 pts this season) took down a defensive SEC team in South Carolina Yes Ohio State got blown out in 2 title games.....but they were up against SEC teams....aka teams that can play defense well. I understand the public thinks about offense and loves to see points....texas has a big edge there, no doubt about it. Look at defense though as well....texas allows 102 more passing yards per game than the buckeyes. Texas has good stats vs the run as far as yards per game, but only because they play pass happy offenses all the time, and most of their opponents are trying to play catch up so can't afford to run the ball. Ohio State will show that Texas is not great at stopping the run, and open up opportunities for big passing plays. I think this one could be more of a shootout than most expect and is up for grabs.
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Posted by nc1capper
4 years ago

Big Ten smells bad , Horns lambast the hapless buckeyes , NC's # 1 Capper cash's the ticket !!
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Posted by bookieassassin
4 years ago

GOTTA LOVE BIG 12 LOVE FEST > you boys musta missed > alamo bowl....holiday bowl...cotton bowl !!...horns should win close game (best team in big 12) BUT....ohio st at beginning of year was arguably most talented team in country .....demoralized after usc loss >definitely underachieved > but on heels of bowl embarrasments > healthy beanie (never 100%) ....maturity of pryor > horns will have to play their behind off to win here....
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Posted by searzy
4 years ago

HMoney--I completyly agree. I see this as a Texas win by at least 2 tds. GL
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Posted by HMoney
4 years ago

I bet heavy on this when it was 9 then went down to 8.5 I had this game as Longhorns by 2 TDs and still feel that way. Am I jaded by Ohio St getting beat up in the last couple BCS games and USC pounding them this year Maybe- But Texas has been solid all year and like my chances with a polished McCoy vs true freshman Pryor who will one day become a solid QB Get up big and force him to play catchup and neutralize Wells. Of course being up big doesn't mean you cover ask all those who almost puked their New years day hangovers when SC almost choked a 9 pt cover -that woulda been horrible.
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Posted by searzy
4 years ago

Indrep, I have followed you a few times this year in your nfl picks and have done pretty good. Thanks But you are dead wrong on your pick and how you are evaluating Texas. They are the only team in the big 12 that has a good defense. A little soft in the pass defense, but that what you get with a lot of freshman. But give that, Muschamp having a month the get them ready for a weak Ohio St. team and it's all over. Texas defense "sucks" I think you stayed up all night and drank way to much---you know better than that Still have much respect for your nfl picks though
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Posted by SD2930
4 years ago

EASILY
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Top Response

Posted by lilmoneyman
4 years ago

"Since the Mack brown has been with the Horns they have not beat a Big 10 or little 10 team by more then 3 points. They Beat the Buckeyes a few years back 25-22, then lost as mentioned above the next year. They Squeezed by Iowa in the Alamo Bowl a cou..."