NFL total bias: Week 17
By
BEN BURNS - To be successful requires both hard work and passion
December 26, 2008
10 comments
Game: Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers
Game Time: 12/28/2008 4:15 PM
Opinion: Over 37.5
Condition: No play if line climbs above 38 points
Both teams have been eliminated from the postseason race so this game is strictly for pride. With no reason to play, I expect both offenses to attempt to open things up and for the final score to prove higher scoring than most are expecting. Note that the last meeting between these teams had a total of just 37 but that game finished with a whopping 69 combined points.
It's true that the Redskins have been a highly profitable under team this season and also that their defense played superbly last week. However, they haven't played a truly meaningless game until now and their earlier results have helped keep today's number extremely low.
It should also be noted that Washington is one of the few teams which has scored more points on the road than it has at home. While they are very solid regardless of the venue, the Skins' defense hasn't been quite as stingy on the road as it has been at home.
It's been almost a year since the 49ers played a home game with total in the 30-point range. Coincidentally, that game also came against a team featuring a top tier defense (Tampa Bay) and it also came in the 49ers' home finale. That game had a total of 36.5 and it finished with 40 combined points.
Including the result from last season's home finale, the over is a highly profitable 11-2 the last 13 times that the 49ers played a home game with a total in the 35.5 to 38 range. This season, San Francisco's home games averaged a healthy 47.6 combined points.
The 49ers have seen the over go 6-1 the last seven times that that they were favored at home by four points or less and 10-4 the last 14 times that they were in the favorite role. Additionally, the Niners last six games here have all produced greater than 37 combined points.
Wearing their throwback jerseys, I look for an inspired effort from the 49ers offense and won't be surprised when the two teams combine for enough points to eclipse the low number.
Consider the over.