NFL opening line report: Week 12
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STEPHEN NOVER - Experience, knowledge and contacts spell long term profit
November 17, 2008
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Stop fading the Tennessee Titans.
We all know the Titans have to lose some time, but all this team does is cover games. Not only have the Titans won all of their games, but they’ve covered every pointspread except one.
Maybe it’s because they’re in the South and not in a major market. Maybe it’s because their offense is boring and quarterbacked by somebody nobody respects, Kerry Collins. Maybe it’s because they have no marquee, flashy stars.
It’s probably a combination of all those things why the Titans haven’t captured the public’s imagination. Could you imagine if Dallas, Indianapolis or San Diego were the unbeaten team instead of Tennessee? It would be a constant bombardment of fanfare.
Yet money has come against the Titans in each of the past two weeks as bettors project the unbeaten streak to end.
Now it’s the rested New York Jets’ turn to try to halt the Titans. The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended an opening number of Titans -4 ½. Senior linesmaker Mike Seba thought the Titans at home should be higher, suggesting a -7. The line was settling in at -5 ½ on Monday afternoon.
“You don’t want to be in a position of rooting for the team who the Titans are playing,” Seba said in explaining why he thought Tennessee should have opened higher.
“If they’ve (bookmakers) learned anything it’s you have to put a premium on the Titans.”
Bookmakers do shade favorites, especially teams that are big with the public such as Dallas, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. The Titans are the best team in the AFC, if not the entire NFL, but so far bettors haven’t really had to pay a tax on them. Their lines have not been over inflated despite a 10-0 record.
Look for that to change next week if the Titans remain unbeaten and Detroit stays winless. The Titans and Lions meet on Thanksgiving. This matchup probably isn’t what the Pilgrims and Indians had in mind.
The easiest way to make money in the NFL this season has been to take double-digit underdogs. They have covered in 14 of 15 instances.
If you blindly accept this method, you will be on the Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers this week. Both opened as 10-point underdogs. The Raiders are at Denver, while the 49ers travel to Dallas.
The highest total on the betting board Monday was 52.5 on the Green Bay Packers-New Orleans Saints Monday night matchup. This will be played in the Superdome, the first time New Orleans is playing there in six weeks. So, there’s no reason to jump if you like the under. Weather can’t be a factor.
“It can only go higher,” Seba said of the total. “It’s possible it could reach 54, but it might close 53 or 53.5.”
The line was either New Orleans -2.5 or -3. Seba believes -3 is the right number as long as Reggie Bush plays. He’s expected back this week.
“It has to be Saints -3,” Seba said. “If it’s less than three everyone is going to play the Monday night home team at less than a field goal.
“The Packers are off a great home win. The Saints have been struggling, but they got an impressive win, too, last week. They need to win here. A win gets them back in the division.”
Seba thought New England should open as a 1-point road favorite versus Miami. LVSC’s send-out was Dolphins -2. The number hadn’t settled in as of Monday afternoon with the Dolphins favored between 1 and 2.5.
The Dolphins upset the Patriots in Week 3, catching them by surprise with a new Wildcat formation. Bill Belichick shouldn’t be fooled a second time by Ronnie Brown taking a direct snap. The Patriots haven’t lost back-to-back games all season. New England also gets extra rest and preparation time having last played on Thursday.
“There’s no way it (the line) will get to -3,” Seba said. “Miami only beat Seattle and Oakland at home by two points.”
The Patriots, however, traditionally struggle at Miami. The Dolphins have defeated the Patriots in seven of their last 10 home games.