NFL Underdogs: Week 12 picks

By ASHTON GREWAL | November 15, 2008 | 18 comments
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It’s hard to rely on my own good intentions

When my head’s full of things that I can’t mention

 

I know what you’re thinking, “Any respect I had for this douchebag just went out the window after leading with a lyric from some 1980s wuss-rock band.”

 

I’m sorry, but this week no words suit my feelings more than those of Toad The Wet Sprocket.

 

After another undefeated week with my underdog picks, I fully believed I would write a lead that would blow the balls off my readers.

 

I would provide insightful analysis, quick-hit notes and mind-bending theories on betting dogs in the NFL. I would be funny, sincere and thought provoking.

 

All other sports columns would bow down to this apex of short literature.

 

But, instead I’m giving you this drivel. It’s Friday night and I want to get drunk. So with my trusty Heineken in hand, I give you my three favorite picks of Week 11.

 

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

 

The Bucs have rushed for 129 yards in their last two games. They haven’t really impressed me since Week 7 and that was at home against an injury-depleted Seahawks team.

 

Tampa Bay’s offense is far too one dimensional for my liking. Head coach Jon Gruden hopes his ground game will pick up with the return of former Rookie of the Year Cadillac Williams, but how much can you rely on a back who hasn’t taken an NFL hit since September 2007?

 

Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson looks like he’s single-handedly going to carry the Vikings offense into the playoffs. Gus Frerotte makes me nervous under center but Minnesota shouldn’t have to put up many points to stay ahead of the Bucs.

 

Pick: Vikings

 

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (+3)

 

The Cards were fortunate to leave the field last Monday with the victory. If the Niners had any idea what they were doing on offense, we’d all be talking about another famous Arizona choke job.

 

Instead the Cardinals are sitting pretty with the NFC West all but gift wrapped for them.

 

All signs point to Matt Hasselbeck returning and that means coach Mike Holmgren can use more than 15 passing plays (sorry Seneca Wallace fans).

 

Qwest Field remains one of the toughest places for visiting teams and this game means much more to the Seahawks than their opponents.

 

Pick: Seahawks

 

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)

 

Where the hell did all this Kerry-Collins-for-MVP talk come from? The Titans’ 9-0 start (8-1 ATS) is nothing short of remarkable, but why is some washed up bum getting all the credit?

 

I understand he’s the quarterback of the team with the best record in the NFL but he doesn’t deserve the league’s highest individual honor for throwing five touchdown passes in nine games.

 

Make an argument for defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth if you want a Tennessee player to bring home some hardware. That guy is the best defensive lineman in the game and he has a larger impact on the Titans’ success every Sunday.

 

I expect the Jags to make all this go away with two interceptions returned for touchdowns and a 24-17 win over Jeff Fisher’s club.

 

Pick: Jags

 

Last week: 2-0-1

 

Season record: 16-12-2

18 comments
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luckyme1 says:
11/15/08 01:10PM

HEY MR GREWAL

HOW COME YOU JUST JUMP OFF THE WAGON ON THE TITANS??

PERHAPS IT REALLY IMPRESS YOU THAT WIN OVER THE STRONG LIONS TEAM

FORGET ABOUT MVP CRAP, COACHES, PLAYERS, TEAM WORK, THAT'S WHY THEY ARE 9-0

THIS GAME IS BASICALLY A PICK AND TITANS WILL GET IT DONE.

WATCH OUT!! NO TOUCHDOWN FOR THE JAGS WAIT & SEE

IN ANY CASE I WISH GOOD LUCK

CHEERS

mvp12331233 says:
11/15/08 05:19PM

RAVENS +8

ZarleyZalapski says:
11/15/08 08:48PM

I don't mind the Toad the Wet Sprocket quote.. good read.. hope AP runs all over those boys.

CalBear says:
11/16/08 02:19AM

You'll go at least 2-1 if not 3-0....I'm not sure about the Minny pick.

Luckyme: In this business you cannot stay true to one team. You have to know when to pick your spots with teams either for or against. This is a good spot for Jack to win.

buckturgidson says:
11/16/08 10:46AM

After watching Collins' great play last week I find it hard to believe anyone calling him a bum is paid to write . Sticking with the Titans , -3/even seems like a gift .

buckturgidson says:
11/16/08 10:49AM

Forgot to mention that -3/even comes with the best coach in football , and I'm a Colts fan . The Colts would have more than 1 ring with Fisher at the helm the last 8 years instead of Tony " Milk Toast " Dungy , oh well ....

extreme2420 says:
11/16/08 11:24AM

sre you kidding or just trying to get people to lose there money whos side are you realy on? well 1st of all minn come on maybe at home i take minn but not at the bucs.bucs stink to cover on the road but at home the play tough.bucs will keep minnys running game in check look for 2 pick offs by tampbay.tenn i think will have to put up more then a 17 points to beat the jags if there def gets caught sleeping then there in trouble but i think they come out and prove big.and seattle omg. ari all the way in that game look for a shoot out.if your looking for upsets or covers then try oakland to catch miami off gaurd.the browns to beat the bills. heres a couple picks ill take this week over atlanta-phily- over of the arizona- tb-pitts-arizona and im sticking with tenn.well gl to me gl to me and writer i wish i could get paid to pick the games where i didnt care about players bankroll cause if you did i think you guys would have some better exciting picks.

MR219 says:
11/16/08 12:36PM

Here are my NFL plays:

Atl -6.5, 1.25 units

Car -13.5, 3 units

Pit -5, 2 units

Ind -8.5, 1.25 units

Dal ML, 5 units

2 team ML parlay of GB and TB, 5 units

4 team 7pt teaser of Mia -3, Ind -1.5, TB +3, and Buf +1.5, 5 units

Also leanining toward Bal and Jax

Good luck everyone!

doobiebrother says:
11/16/08 01:59PM

4-7 (-11.4) Saturday, 4-9 (-15.8) this week. NFL 34-21 (+29.4). All trends ATS unless otherwise noted. May add late games.

Ravens (+7) – Baltimore 4-0 L4, 4-1 A, 5-1 vs. NYG, 6-2 RD 8<, and 6-1 SU & ATS vs. NFC East.

Texans (+8) – Huge revenge game for Houston after Colts came from 17 down for late win at Reliant. Texans 7-1 A off 2L. Colts 2-7 H, 2-11 vs. div, and 2-6 H off 2W.

Saints/Chiefs Over (50) - Chiefs have allowed at least 19 in 10 straight at home, and Saints #1 pass attack goes against KC “D” #23 vs. pass (233 YPG,) and #28 in YPA (7.8). NO has allowed at least 29 in losing each of L5 A. Over 5-1 Saints A, 12-1 Saints RF 6<, 8-2 Saints vs. AFC West, 8-2 Chiefs H, and 4-0 Chiefs H in Nov.

Buccaneers (-4) – TB 7-1 SU & ATS H vs. Minny. Vikings 3-19 SU & 6-14-2 ATS as D 4<, and 3-20 SU & 5-16-2 ATS RD 4<.

3 on Ravens, 2 on the others.

BurningPlanet26 says:
11/16/08 02:52PM

I like your picks this week man. Think you have a good chance to go 2-1 or even 3-0. Even if you only go 1-2 betting on the moneyline (which I am) you barely lose due to the juice. MIN is looking good right now.

The Hawks I am only betting because if they lose my Giants bet over Cards next week will lose value. I actually hope I lose that bet.

The Jags I like because their first matchup was close, they are now healthier, they play a similar brand of football, they are at home, and they want to assert themselves in the division. You also have to think the pressure of staying perfect every week has to get to the Titans at some point.

luckyme1 says:
11/16/08 05:50PM

CalBet

If u think so... do it!!! but is not a good spot for jacksonville.

Good Luck Mister

Cheers

dmonee17 says:
11/16/08 08:32PM

hey thanks for the quality picks this week. 0-3? i could have gone 0-3.

dwbl3 says:
11/16/08 08:57PM

I never had any respect for this douchebag. I hope Covers doesn't actually pay him.

QMICH says:
11/16/08 09:19PM

HEY AG, HOW ABOUT YOUR THREE LEAST FAVORITE PICKS? DON'T WORRY, IT COULD BE WORSE! I WAS ALL OVER PIT, SO HOW AM I DOING........

extreme2420 says:
11/16/08 09:25PM

i told you eailer what i thought about covers underdog picks and there college 4 play see i told you mister bank robber your picks where no good you went 0 for 3. and on top of it i said to watck for oakland and they covered. so did tb, tenn,and arizona.and if you look at my picks beside the oakland underdog i won ari,tenn,tb oakland i also took no last min and i also took det last min with the offline book. but i did lose the ove in atlanta and ptts game what a bad game ptts was lol.only cause i lost.but anyway dont belive these guys online there lucky if they hit 3 out of 3 or there college 4 play if you want to win just take the oppiste of there underdog picks for the year all str8 up no parlays and by the end of the year youll be on top. covers is owned by the online bookies so they hope you follow there moves. P.s if anybody cares look at yahoos picks they have 3 guys and the users pick and then it gives you the average pick.i see they have a pretty good record.they lose only on an average of 3-5 games a week.better record then these guys.maybe ill sell my own underdog picks for a dollar on ebay this up coming week at least i went 2 for 2 so far on the underdog i picked for the week. AND FOR THE 3RD UNDERDOG ILL PICK THIS WEEK IS THE BROWNS TO COVER AGAINST THE BILLS.` AND I HATE THE BROWNS. OH AND BY THE WAY THANKS FOR friggin MY PARLAY ATLANTA COULDNT COVER THE MONEY LINE. AND I TOOK DALLAS AND THE OVER

bill603 says:
11/16/08 09:38PM

LMAO......Great picks!!!

salo76 says:
11/16/08 10:08PM

Nice picks.

luckyme1 says:
11/17/08 12:20PM

HEY ASHTON

I GUEES YOU WERE DRUNK BEFORE WRITTING THIS COLUMN

DRINKING & WORKING IT IS NOT A GOOD COMBINATION

YOU SHOULD KNOW BETTER

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