Stan Leung is an MMA betting expert and the publisher for fighting-MMA.com.
UFC 91 Couture vs. Lesnar
Nov. 15, 2008 8 p.m.
Randy "The Natural" Couture (+100) vs. Brock Lesnar (-120)
The biggest mixed martial arts fight in history is set to go down Saturday night when Randy “The Natural” Couture (16-8) will make his return to the UFC after he resigned to face Brock Lesnar. Couture has hopes of using this fight to earn a bout against the best fighter in the world, Fedor Emelianenko.
To lure him back to the UFC, President Dana White gave Couture a daunting challenge. On Sept. 2, 2008 the UFC announced a three-fight deal with the now 45-year-old return to as heavyweight champion to fight at UFC 91 on Nov. 15, 2008 in Nevada against former WWE wrestler Lesnar (2-1).
The winner of this fight will go on to fight the winner of UFC 92's Nogueira versus Mir bout, for the undisputed UFC Heavyweight Championship.
This is the most hyped MMA fight in history thanks to Lesnar’s mainstream presence that will draw in the wider media and the hardcore WWE geeks.
Sports betting-wise this will be the most action on UFC or MMA fight in sports betting history. Most oddsmakers are being conservative in the fight. The lines opened at -115 on both sides but due to the fame, mainstream presence and Lesnar’s sheer size, a flood of action has been placed on Brock.
Lesnar has been pushed to the online betting favorite at -120 and Couture is the underdog at +100.
Don’t let the hype fool you though. Couture is a real MMA fighter who has been around the block. He’ll have a game plan going into this fight that will throw off Lesnar enough to beat the more inexperienced fighter and the great part is that Couture’s value should rise to around +160 by fight time. You can bet on it.
Lesnar will eventually be a great fighter one day, but with only three pro MMA fights he is not yet ready to be a champion. He is big and fast, though not ready compete at a world championship level.
His fight with Frank Mir at UFC 81 showed that. In that fight Lesnar made a classic grappling mistake and tried to run away from the leg submission instead of turning into the submission.
If Lesnar wasn’t a former WWE star, he wouldn’t even be considered for this fight. His first fight against Min Soo Kim was against a fighter who took the fight with only two weeks of notice.
His second fight was against Frank Mir, who made him look stupid on the ground and his third fight against Heath Herring at UFC 87. Lesnar beat Herring but all he did was lay on Herring the whole time and did little damage. He didn’t threaten him on the ground with submission attempts even though the kimura and other submissions were readily available.
If that was Couture, he would be smart enough to get out of that position because of his wrestling experience.
Couture is a technically more skilled wrestler than Lesnar as a three-time Olympic team alternate (1988, 1992 and 1996), a semifinalist at the 2000 Olympic trials, a three-time NCAA Division-I All-American and a two-time NCAA Division-I runner-up at Oklahoma State.
Lesnar had a great NCAA wrestling career but he never faced the world wide competition that Couture has faced.
While Lesnar has more raw power and speed, Randy will be able to out-wrestle Lesnar if this fight goes to the ground. Brock just won’t be able to lay on top of Couture like he did with Heath Herring..
Couture is also the better striker. Look at his game plan with Tim Sylvia. He was able to stay outside and land shots in a well executed striking game. Brock doesn’t have great striking ability and is more about explosiveness than accuracy.
Once Randy is able to slow down the pace of he fight, Lesnar will be vulnerable. Couture will stay on the outside and avoid Brock’s initial charge and from there will out strike him and land the cleaner blows.
Pick: Couture