Sometimes a game can look good on paper when the schedule is set, but by the time it’s played things have changed and it isn't all that exciting.
The Dallas-Cleveland game is a perfect example of that. Other times, though, you just have to wonder why anyone would ever think that a national TV audience would need to watch a game in the first place.
The Monday Night Football tilt between the Niners and the Cardinals is one of those times. I was higher on the Niners than most were coming into the season (oops), but even I didn't think that they were worth watching. Given San Francisco's struggles, there are only two reasons to watch this game - to see Kurt Warner throw another shovel full of concrete on Matt Leinart's career with every completion, and to see the fancy new stadium. Other than that, chances are pretty good that Gossip Girl will provide more Monday night drama than this game.
Thank goodness for betting. And betting is just what people are doing.
The volume is as high for this game as it would be for a good one, and the public, not surprisingly, likes the Cardinals. Three quarters of bets have been placed on Arizona. It's noteworthy that the line opened at the key number of 10 at some betting shops but has since dropped to 9.5. That indicates that books aren't scared of action on the Cardinals despite the lopsided bet totals.
That suggests that the money isn't flowing towards Arizona at the same rate as the bets are. In other words, it would appear that some big bets are on San Francisco. If that's the case then those bettors would need recent history to change in order to cash their tickets - San Francisco has neither won nor covered in its last five, while Arizona has covered four straight.
The Cards have covered five of the last seven between the two teams, including one this year.
There was finally a MNF game that went under the total last week. Can we see another one so soon? The public doesn't seem to think so.
The total sat at 46 and has climbed to 46.5 and even 47 in some places. The public is, as always on a Monday night, heavy on the over. That's not as ill-advised as the public's leanings can often be. San Francisco has gone over in three of the team’s last four and Arizona has managed it in four of its last five. The Cardinals' passing offense is particularly suited to being at home - every home game this year has gone over.
The stark difference between these two teams, besides their records and the sanity of their head coaches, is that passing offense. San Francisco is actually a little more effective than the Cardinals in running the ball this year, but the passing games come from different planets.
Arizona has the second best aerial output in the league, while the Niners managed almost 90 fewer passing yards per game. Any level of success for the Niners will depend upon their ability to control the passing game. The chances of that seem mixed.
On one hand, San Francisco held Warner to just 197 yards last game - his second lowest total of the season. Over the last five weeks, though, the San Francisco defense seems to have largely forgotten how to stop an opposing offense - opponents are averaging 33 points per game.
Warner has had more than 340 yards two weeks in a row. There is more than a small chance that that streak could continue.