MNF action report: 'Almost impossible for books to win'

By LOGANS.COM | November 9, 2008 |

41 comments

Written by Blake Edwards, oddsmaker for Logans.com.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Line/Total:

We opened this one with the Cards favored by 9.5 and the total set at 46 and there’s been zero movement on the game.

These games give bookmakers headaches. Cardinals are an exciting team off a big win playing a team going nowhere. We’ll book the game even on the spread, but everyone and their mother is going to tease the Cardinals to a point where all they have to do is win.

After Sunday is over we’ll be exposed a ton of money on teaser bets. This game is almost impossible for bookmakers to win.

Matchup of the Game:

49ers pass defense ranked 20th in the NFL vs. QB Kurt Warner, WR’s Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.

Key Injuries:

49ers: OL Barry Sims, S Dashon Goldson and WR Arnaz Battle all downgraded to expect to miss.

Cardinals: TE Ben Patrick upgraded to probable.

Weather: Dome

41 comments

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damonte says:

11/09/08 10:29PM

What a heartwarming,sad,sad, story. I know I'll cry myself to sleep tonite.

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joiitsrott says:

11/09/08 10:56PM

LOL

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WizrduvOdz says:

11/09/08 11:29PM

yeah, damonte, THAT was funny

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coakley69 says:

11/09/08 11:58PM

gotta love teasers!

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UglyKidJoe says:

11/10/08 12:01AM

I'm going to buy myself a nice HDTV with the cash I win on this game. LOL

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MR219 says:

11/10/08 01:00AM

All I need is Arz to win and I will cash in 5 units on a ML parlay! I also think they cover 9.5. I am tempted to throw in another unit or 2!

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nc1capper says:

11/10/08 02:32AM

fella,,relax, I'm a college player but we all know if it looks too good to be true,,well , my fellow cappers,,it probably is - vegas issues no gifts to the handicapping public, its all number crunching a good dose of lady luck,,BOL fellow players

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DevilDogTodd says:

11/10/08 02:56AM

Serious, do you expect us to believe this? Anyone with any common sense knows that you can move the line to where YOU need it to be to win money. My goodness!

Listen boys and girls.....if you are being hit hard with teasers on a certain team then what do you do? You move the line so the game cannot be so easily teased and you then get more money on the 49'ers. This is not rocket science.

I always find it comical when books bemoan the fact they are going to lose big on a certain game. Move the number the right way and you won't.

Trust me, been there and done that many times.

DevilDog

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Turk07 says:

11/10/08 04:36AM

I have been watching the Cards all year...Passing game will dominate...Cards and Over...o ya How about my BLACKHAWKS!!!!!!!!!!

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ch333chiro says:

11/10/08 05:08AM

- I agree that usually when a spread looks too good to be true, it usually is BUT:

I just think this is a bad matchup for the 49ers, bad spot for them too...

they will be playing a Arizona team HOSTING a monday night game - looking to show how good they really are...

there pass defense will not be able to keep up with (Warner, Boldin, and Fitzgerald)!

and since benching EDGE, i feel like they actually have a better running back in HIGHTOWER...

i look for arizona to win by double digits!!!

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smoke1399 says:

11/10/08 05:17AM

Coming off a bye week heading into a revenge game against a division opponent that they must have to keep any slim hope remaining at competing for the division. Shaun Hill looked solid last week and is more productive and careful with the ball than O'Sullivan. J.T. threw a pick and fumbled twice in week 1 against arizona and still the 9ers only lost 23 to 13. That was 1 of 2 games this year Warner was held under 200 yards passing. Edgerrin James has been benched and rookie rb Hightower will go for arizona. He looked decent last week but I expect a couple rookie mistakes from him, including at least one fumble. SF has a big advantage in the RB matchup as Gore has had big games against the cardinals. The 49ers and Panthers were the only 2 teams to win in arizona last year so the cards can lose at home. 75% of action is on az yet the line has moved from 10 to 9 1/2 in many places. Maybe theres big money on san fran and the money is evened out....but san fran was my original pick, and i'd rather be on the side with big money than the side with most of public riding

rollin with the 9ers!

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NFLKiller says:

11/10/08 07:52AM

I like niners ML...agree with the write-up smoke

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NFLKiller says:

11/10/08 07:54AM

I think the under as well for some reason...the public's too hard on it I believe, but if the Cards win it is in the over

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NFLKiller says:

11/10/08 07:54AM

meant public on the over

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tyler1985 says:

11/10/08 10:10AM

SF ML

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youramoron says:

11/10/08 10:16AM

Are you Serious with this statement....?

We opened this one with the Cards favored by 9.5 and the total set at 46 and there’s been zero movement on the game.

After Sunday is over we’ll be exposed a ton of money on teaser bets. This game is almost impossible for bookmakers to win.

Are are talking about Vegas making an error?

Don't buy this Logans oddsmaker's BullSh$$

San Fran is a bad team...But I will tell you all. Mike Singletary knows how to motivate players for a prime-time game against a division rival. 9.5 pts is a lot to lay to a desprite team in a prime time game. Big $$ on the S.F. Side. Arizona may win, but S.F will stay within the number!

SF +9.5

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mkan20 says:

11/10/08 11:00AM

There is zero credibility in this article. Its full of BS.

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Quadropheniac says:

11/10/08 11:27AM

Guys the line is at 9.5 because they want everyone to take the teaser, or buy three points. They always do that on fer sure favorites. The line will NOT move. They figure its better to pay out half of a wager than 90% The idea on their part is to get you to tease3 because you will have no choice but to parlay, usually with the OVER. That's exactly what they want. For you to need two conditions to be met in order to win a straight up bet. BE CAREFUL WITH THE OVER!!!!

REGARDING SINGLETARY. It's not very motivating to a team when you kick one of your best players to the curb in the middle of the game. Not a good way to start coaching.

Secondly, it doesn't matter how good you are as a coach if your team sux, has no leadership, no QB, and your best player is hurt.

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testrite says:

11/10/08 01:10PM

Bet ED.com has the spread at 10 right now, SHould I take it?

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gaybettor says:

11/10/08 01:13PM

92% of the action is on the Cards to cover... I'll take a shot with San Fran

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testrite says:

11/10/08 01:13PM

over/under is at 47.5 also

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bowlslit says:

11/10/08 02:21PM

DevilDogTodd says:

11/10/08 01:56AM

Serious, do you expect us to believe this? Anyone with any common sense knows that you can move the line to where YOU need it to be to win money. My goodness!

I always find it comical when books bemoan the fact they are going to lose big on a certain game. Move the number the right way and you won't.

Trust me, been there and done that many times.

DevilDog

Devildog...respectfully you are completely wrong about moving the line. When a book moves the line even a few points there is the possibility of getting middled. If you understand the books financials, getting middled is bad option. So lets say they move the line to eleven and the Cards win by ten then they have to pay alot out on both sides.

Books make their lines to get EVEN action on both sides then they get the juice + the losers money.

Once you understand about that then you will understand that if the line is out for more than a few days moving the line more than a point or two is potentially bad.

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cyearian says:

11/10/08 03:13PM

Fpronk says:

11/10/08 12:32PM

Where do you people get these percentages that you throw out here?

Gaybettor says its at 92% of the public on AZ....where?

Good question FPRONK. I was wondering the same thing yesterday. I thought I found something and I used those number to sway me yesterday and I think I lost every one.

Here is the website I used - not sue if it is right though.

http://www.sports.com/sportsbook/liveodds.php

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cyearian says:

11/10/08 03:22PM

A few years ago I heard or read something somewhere that told me you should always bet against a team that has covered ATS >=4 consecutive games and playing against a team that has lost ATS >= 4 consecutive games. What does everyone else think of this.

Tonight could be the first but I like my chances of taking San Fran.

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libra55 says:

11/10/08 03:36PM

It's a lie. the game opened at 9.5, 10, 10,5 and 11, 11.5 depending where you bet.

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MNF action report: 'Almost impossible for books to win'

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