NFL Underdogs: Week 10 picks

By ASHTON GREWAL | November 8, 2008 | 29 comments
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Tuesday’s gone with the wind and there’s a new man heading to the White House. Does that mean they’ll stop sending sports bettors to the Big House?

We posted several political prop pieces leading up to the US presidential election and I observed many different views and concerns about the two candidates.

I was surprised to see the discussion didn’t include what the result would mean to the online betting world.

Pro choice or pro life? Gun control or the right to bear arms? Oprah or Palin?

All important questions.

But why aren’t we asking who’s going to make it easier to take the points and back the Bills on Sunday?

Will Barack Obama undo the wrong that was done October 2006 when online gambling was essentially made illegal? He’ll have the numbers to do it if he wants to make it happen. The democrats now control the Senate, House and 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Obviously this isn’t a burning issue. If there was a totem pole of priority bills needing some tinkering, the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act would be six feet deep in the ground.

Oh well. They say no American President accomplishes anything worthwhile until the second term any way.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-15)

Oddsmakers won’t give up on the Chargers. Every time I talk to one of them I hear how San Diego’s too talented to keep underachieving. Kind of like a forgiving boyfriend who keeps letting his cheating girlfriend back home.

I’m not falling for it. This tramp is sleeping outside.

Pick: Chiefs

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1)

The NFC North is still wide open but there’s no doubt in my mind the Packers are the best of the bunch. They’ve got talent at all skill positions on offense and their defense is capable of playing much better than it has so far.

Minnesota still struggles against the pass and the club will be without edge rusher Jared Allen, who’s nursing a sore shoulder.

I expect Packers coach Mike McCarthy to use his five-receiver set often and limit the effectiveness of the Vikes’ Pro Bowl defensive tackle tandem.

Pick: Packers

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

In the opinion of this humble writer, this is a matchup of the league’s two best teams.

The Eagles could easily be sharing the top of the NFC East with the G-Men if offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg showed a bit more creativity in goal line situations.

Philly doesn’t match up well against the Giants, though. New York’s relentless pass rush forces Donovan McNabb to release the ball quicker than he’d like or risk being driven into the ground.

Expect New York’s No. 2 running attack to gain 200 yards and sprinkle in a few long completions of play action for Eli Manning, resulting in a 24-17 win for the Giants.

Pick: Giants

Last week: 3-0

Season: 14-12-1

29 comments
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teflongnome says:
11/08/08 09:52PM

Here are my dogs of the week:

NO +1 coming off a bye and clearly a better team. They've had time to adjust the offense without Bush, Colston had his intro game, and the defense has been playing better of late. ATL has overachieved and now they face a desperate opponent with experience. Division game and NO wins easy.

GB +2.5 See Ashton's write-up, Rogers should have time to pass and they have the receivers to both stretch the field and dink-and-dunk. MIN has little chance here.

STL +9 Bad Favre will show up here. STL will be able to slow the run game and Favre will do what Favre does best. Screw up enough to win by a hair.

T.

mrusso says:
11/08/08 11:34PM

SEA +9 (#5 BET)

(NO +1( #2 BET)

SF +9 (#3 BET)

OAK +9.5(#6 BET)

BTW , SD WILL STEAMROLL KC, LAY THE 15 (#1 BET)

ALSO, GIANTS FINALLY LOSE TO PHILLY(#4 BET)

Dogjimbo says:
11/09/08 12:36AM

WOW, Going way out on those three. -1 a underdog??

drsweet says:
11/09/08 12:43AM

+15 KC, I'll take it + over. none of the team favored more than 10 cover in the past. I am bank it so far.

braydon58 says:
11/09/08 01:05AM

I never post here because I don't claim to have the consistent knowledge of betting to help anyone out but I can say be VERY careful with that Chiefs game. The Chiefs defense is extremely banged up to a point where they are playing a reserve safety, a LB and two CB's they just signed off the street last week to start. Plus, J Charles is not going to be able to handle an entire game on his shoulders, San Diego is desperate, I realize they are not that good but they are gonna score a ton tomorrow.

smoke1399 says:
11/09/08 01:08AM

trends and streaks are snapped at some point. San Diego wins easy. I like your plays mrusso. I'm rollin with SD, Chi, Phi, SF, Min jets/rams under, seahawks/dolphins over

good luck all

KasperNV says:
11/09/08 01:20AM

As long as you didn't pick Oakland you will be alright.

ml78 says:
11/09/08 02:42AM

baltimore to win on the road new england at home and kansas city will cover

MR219 says:
11/09/08 05:15AM

Going to play:

1. Atl -1, -115, 1 unit

2. Ne -3, -130, 2 units

3. Bal PK, -105, 1 unit

4. Ten - Chi under 37.5, 1 unit

5. 3 Team ML parlay of Mia, Car, and Arz for 5 units

6. 3 Team 7 PT Teaser of Mia -2, Car - 2.5 and Arz - 2.5 for 0.5 units

Good Luck Everyone!

dlp says:
11/09/08 06:56AM

When Seattle travels to the East Coast they Lose -Three times on the East Coast and the results are--- against Buff 10-34- Gia-6-44 and then TB 10-20 - I see much of same when they face Miami...

G_deniro says:
11/09/08 09:55AM

Atl. gonna knock saints head off.Falcons the real deal and money team against teams with suspect defense.

statguru says:
11/09/08 10:51AM

Pick: KC+15

Although San Diego has blown their opponents at home, I am going to agree with your KC pick. But not because this year +10 underdogs are covering this year, but because I think KC is underrated. These young guys have nothing to lose and will come out swinging.

Pick: NYG +3

Giants, yes, the best team in the NFL. Were the Patriots underdogs in any game last year? No. I am not saying the Giants are last year's Patriots, but they are quite dominant, enough not to be underdogs.

Green Bay at Minnesota is a risky bet in my opinion. Even though I think Green Bay can win, I just think that team is too volatile. One day they play great, the next they look worse than Detroit.

Instead, I would look at other games. The TEN @ CHI, IND @ PIT, or STL @ NYJ, might be better games. Check out the picks to those games in this blog: www.nflpickles.com.

Ezinsurance says:
11/09/08 10:55AM

OK, Here goes my input... Take Philly for an easy win... Also take San Diego, next take Oakland, and I also think Chicago will cover. I am due for a big win and I think today is the day............

umpire says:
11/09/08 11:11AM

indy, buffalo, carolina

WinsNow999 says:
11/09/08 11:17AM

Maybe...I am a FADE tool, guys. Late games last night went 1-5. Never happended in my past in gambling. Here are my early leans:

Houston

Tennessee

New Orleans

Minnesota

UNDER @ Maimi

OVER @ Jets

Good Luck to all =):

DaShowStopa says:
11/09/08 11:46AM

Hilton Contest Week #10

#1 Atlanta (PK) 99

#2 Minnesota (-2) 94

#3 Baltimore (+1.5) 91

#4 Chicago (+3) 90

#5 Philadelphia (-3) 87

Leader: Betting Doctor (32-11-2)

New England (-4)

St. Louis (+8)

Pittsburgh (-3)

NY Giants (+3)

San Fran (+9.5)

TRAINOFTHOUGHT says:
11/09/08 11:55AM

I have a pretty reasonable 4 pick, that I know should hit if none of these point shaving as coaches and ref's intervene.

I like Carolina (Raiders may be the worst team this year.)

Jax (Detroit isn't good enough to say that they will be flat, their whole game plan is flat, Jax will be very angry today)

Atlanta over (this game should be an airshow for New orleans, and a ground & air show for the Falcons)

Philadelphia over (because they both will prove that they can beat one another until time runs out, Giants 41, Eagles 34)

robert23 says:
11/09/08 12:00PM

goodmorning everyone had a up and down college day last night finished up but not enough to go grocery shopping so looking for a big day today. my leans for today are.

EAGLES -3.0 = i just dont get how the 7-1 super bwol champs are a dog here. vegas is just begging for everyone to take the g-men. eagles play great at home and need a win here to stay alive in the conference and playoff race. i am taking the desperate team at home in this spot.

SAINTS + 1.5 = i know mr. bush is out of todays game but coming off the bye week i believe saints are rested and and another desperate team in this spot. i think drew breese goes nuts today in the dome and saints win by a td. and yes i know falcons are undefeated at home. but hey its the nfl.

PATRIOTS -3.5 = pats coming off a bad loss last week and looks to me that the bills are starting to play like they should, an average team. look for pats to win this one by double digits.

GOODLUCK TO EVERYONE, AND GO GET THOSE BOOKS

davidoliver2406 says:
11/09/08 12:14PM

NEVER BET A DETROIT LIONS GAME. EVER. EVER. EVER. I DON'T CARE HOW MAD YOU THINK JACKSONVILLE WILL BE, THE LIONS WILL DO ENOUGH TO SCREW YOU. I LIVE IN DETROIT UNFORTUNATLY, DETROIT WILL DO ENOUGH AND LOSE BY 6. THEY BACK DOOR COVER WITH THE BEST OF EM

MR219 says:
11/09/08 01:05PM

Have added the following:

7. Pit -3, -130, 2 units

8. Phi -2.5, -120, 1 unit

9. NYG - PHI under 42.5, 0.5 unit

Also have Bos - Det under 186 and Char ML over Raptors in the NBA for 1 unit each.

Went 8-4 (up approx. 4.5 units) in CFB yestrerday, (if anyone cares...)

doobiebrother says:
11/09/08 01:54PM

4-4 (-1.2) Saturday, 4-5 (-4.5) for the week. Playing early games first and then will form strategy for late games, in effort to save my week. Will post 4 pm games (if any) at 3:30 pm est. All trends ATS unless otherwise noted.

Titans (-3) – Tennessee just keeps on posting ATS wins, and will continue to do so until they get more public support. No reason for linesmaker to make adjustment if book’s not losing money. Bears 0-4-1 off 2W (0-1 H) and 0-4-1 H off 2W.

Rams/ Jets Under (43.5) – St. Louis RB Jackson was expected to play when this line was set, and he is a big loss. Jets will play it closer to the vest than usual in effort to keep Favre (3 TD, 8 int. L4) from giving it away. Winds 15-20 mph and affect play more at E. Rutherford than any other NFL park.

Ravens/Texans Over (43) – Baltimore “D” not nearly as good on the road, allowing 19> in 10 of 12 A including 27> 7 times. Houston has scored 20> in 16 of 17 at H, including 27> in L7. Baltimoe QB Flacco coming on in L3 with 4 TDs, 0 interceptions, and 8 completions of 20 yards or more. He is completing 70% of his passes in the 2nd half TY for 7.57 YPA. Rookie RB Rice has 218 yards rushing in 29 carries in L2. Ravens DBs Landry and McCallister still out, and 6 of their 8 opponents rank 24 or lower in passing. Texans lost leading tackler (66) LB Diles for the season on Wednesday, after this line was posted. Baltimore kick coverage has been bad and Texans return game explosive. Over 9-4 Ravens A, 5-1 Ravens A in Nov, and 9-1 Texans L10.

Tease Saints +7.5 & Dolphins -1.5 – Running out of time so sorry, no analysis here.

3 Ravens/Texans Over

2 Titans

2 Rams/Jets Under

2 Saints/Dolphins teaser

testrite says:
11/09/08 01:59PM

Tennessee will taste the taste of defeat today

MR219 says:
11/09/08 03:21PM

Adding one more play:

10. SD - 13.5, -130, 1 unit. It feels like a 35-10 kind of game.

doobiebrother says:
11/09/08 04:54PM

Adding these late games for 2 units each. Will likely play night game too.

Panthers (-9.5) - Carolina loves power running game and comes off bye with OL intact for 1st time TY. Oakland choice opponent as Raiders allow 158 YPG rushing on 4.5 YPR. Raiders #32 scoring (13.4 PPG) and Carolina #3 scoring “D” (15.9). Raider DL will spend lots of time on field and wear down.

Colts/Steelers Under (39.5) – Chilly day in Pittsburgh for matchup of #1 and #3 pass defenses. Parker out, but Pitt will still get room vs. Indy’s #25 rush “D” (144, 4.2) and will try to control time of possession to keep Manning off field. Indy speed negated on grass field (5-15 ATS), and Pitt/Louisville game played here yesterday.

paco1018 says:
11/09/08 05:09PM

LOVE SOME MEANINGLESS TOUCHDOWNS FROM THE SAINTS TO GET THE OVER WOW HAHAHAH love it

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