I’m staring at the gambling wall.
Every year, I kick off the football season with a nice little run. Then, usually right around Halloween, my bankroll splatters against the wall.
Sometimes it manages to survive; other times, I take advantage of my book’s extremely generous five-percent reload offer. That’s an extra five bucks for DP.
Judging from the buzz around Covers.com, I’m not the only one that has had a run-in with the gambling wall. Some of the most respected cappers on here got off to a rough start to November last weekend.
But why? Why does the game seem to get tougher as the season goes along?
Some say oddsmakers get a better feel for the teams. I’m not buying that.
Seventeen games last week were decided by more than 14 points of the spread, not to mention numerous totals that were way off the mark. Plus, aren’t we also getting a better grasp on the season?
I blame the majority of my late-season struggles on my gigantic brain, which out-thinks itself more and more with each losing bet.
Normally, I react by limiting my plays. But I’m changing my philosophy this year. I’m going into attack mode with simplified handicapping based primarily on line analysis.
I want to focus on the teams I’ve followed closely throughout the season and, most importantly, trust my instincts.
So there’s my November game plan. Anyone else think it sounds like a suicide note?
Has anyone else ever hit the gambling wall? Why do you think the game gets tougher? Let me know your thoughts and if you change your game plan as the season goes along.
Weather Watch
Rain is expected to impact: Arizona State-Washington, Ohio State-Northwestern, Purdue-Michigan State, Stanford-Oregon and Syracuse-Rutgers.
Three I’m Playing
Last week: 1-1
Season record: 27-15-1
Marshall at East Carolina (-8.5)
Pick: East Carolina
This line screamed, take Marshall to me.
The Thundering Herd are coming off a bye week, while East Carolina had a short week to prepare after Sunday night’s unimpressive performance at Central Florida.
Suspensions and injuries have eliminated three starters for ECU. The Pirates’ quarterback issues are also well documented. Everything points toward the Herd. Yet, oddsmakers opened the Pirates as nearly 10-point favorites.
There is a big revenge factor here. Marshall knocked ECU out of last year’s C-USA championship game with a 27-7 upset. I smell ambush.
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (-3.5, 69.5)
Pick: Over
My gigantic brain notes that we need 10 touchdowns here.
Oklahoma State has scored at least seven touchdowns in five games this season. I think Mike Leach and Texas Tech can put up at least three.
This is a shootout between two teams that are ranked in the top five in the nation scoring offense.
Wyoming at Tennessee (-26.5)
Pick: Tennessee
Sometimes a team shuts down when they find out their coach is gone after the year. Washington and Toledo seem to be playing that role.
Other times, teams rally behind their lame duck coach come. That will be the case for Phil Fulmer and the Vols.
I’m getting SEC talent against a bottom feeder from the Mountain West, which has been held to seven points or less five times this season. I smell shutout.
Two favorites and an over … ugh. I smell disaster.
I’ll be checking in around 10:30 a.m., Saturday. If you’d like me to look into a certain game, injury or weather issue, please post your requests below and I’ll do my best.
Best of luck everyone.