Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (-3, 46)
Line Movement
The line opened at the key number of three it still sits there at most betting shops. It can be found in several places at 3.5, though. It's not a huge move, but it's still intriguing because the action is split roughly evenly between the two teams, with just over half of all bets placed being on the Broncos. The fact that the line has moved off the key number despite that could suggest that there is smart money in play and it’s on the home team.
Weather
Cleveland can be an ugly place to be, but that won't be the case Thursday night. Temperatures are expected to be a mild 66 degrees at kickoff. Precipitation is highly unlikely and the wind won't be a significant factor. It will be showcase conditions for football.
Total
The total opened at 46.5 and is now available there and at 46. The teams have met each of the last two seasons (last year's was a preseason game), and they have gone under much smaller totals both times.
The Broncos began the year as an over machine, but their offense has sputtered and in the last four weeks they have gone under three times and pushed once. The Browns have also tended towards the under, not exceeding the total in two of their last three and five of eight on the year.
This is the largest total that the Browns have faced since Week 1 against Dallas, while 46 is tied for the second lowest the Broncos have faced all season.
Some guy from Notre Dame
One storyline dominates all others in this game: Brady Quinn will make his long awaited debut at quarterback. For a season and a half now, Quinn has been assured of being the most popular guy in Cleveland. Now he actually has to prove that he can play. The expectations are high, but the standard hasn’t exactly been lofty with Derek Anderson this season.
Quinn has just eight career passes and he has a short week of practice to get ready. On the other hand, he must know the offense like the back of his hand by now and his first opponent could hardly be better if it was hand-picked - the Broncos have the fourth worst defense in the league.
The lackadaisical play of the offense lately - notably including an obscene number of dropped passes by Braylon Edwards - must have to do with a lack of respect for Anderson given his struggles. The short term success Quinn enjoys will be determined largely by his ability to get the checked out players to check back in.
Who is in charge?
The change in quarterback isn't the only big issue facing the Browns. It seems like there could be a power struggle under way between the coaching staff and the front office.
Coach Romeo Crennel stated on Monday there would not be a change in quarterback. Just hours later, it was announced that Quinn would get the start. Crennell insists that the decision was his and that he just changed his mind, but that seems hard to believe. Cleveland isn't exactly playing great football, and it is hard for a team to turn things around when the players don't know who to listen to.
It doesn't help, either, that the team is playing out like a soap opera. The Kellen Winslow drama is the most obvious example, but far too much of the team's laundry is being aired in public.
Last year the Browns seemed like the perfect, happy family. Now they look just as dysfunctional as the rest of us.
Where has all the offense gone?
In the first three games of the season the Broncos averaged 38 points per game and won all three. Since then they have averaged just over 15 per game and they are 1-4.
Starting quarterback Jay Cutler hasn't been hurt and he is still passing for lots of yards - 307 in his last game. He just isn't nearly as crisp as he was to start the season with more mistakes and fewer big plays. Brandon Marshall has done a gradual, predictable shift from receiving star to whiny malcontent.
The most striking problem, though, is the running game. This team has been in the top 10 in the league in rushing since 2000. This year, though, they are just 18th. They have had just one 100-yard rusher all year.
Rock bottom was emphatically reached last week when they managed just 14 yards rushing against the Dolphins. Miami's run defense is good, but not that good. Cleveland’s 25th best defense may be just what Denver needs to turn things around.