Ask the oddsmaker: Pats-Colts unpopular bet

By MICHAEL PERRY | November 1, 2008 | 1 comment
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Each week Michael Perry, oddsmaker with Logans.com, answers the most asked questions in the sports betting world.

Seneca (Tacoma) - A lot of teams still in contention for the BCS title game. Which team is drawing the most action?

Michael Perry - USC seems to be the popular choice and I can see why. Of all the teams in the hunt for the BCS title game, the Trojans have the easiest schedule by far. 2 out of the top 8 teams.

Andy (NY) - The New York Knicks put up 120 points in their season debut. Did you already have higher totals in mind for the Knicks now that D’Antonio is coaching them or is it something you’re still adjusting to?

Michael Perry - Yes, oddsmakers have already made necessary adjustments for Knick totals with D'Antonio running the show in the Big Apple. The total in the Knicks opener was 209.5, and it went over that and then some (Knicks beat Miami 120-115).

Keith (Maryland) - Are you drawing heavy action on the Pats-Indy game this week or is there less appeal to this game because booth teams are having down years?

Michael Perry - The action on the Pats-Colts game is way down compared to years past, but it's still the third-highest bet game on the board this week. We are slightly long on the Colts in this matchup with them garnering 58 percent of our action.

Sam (Houston) - Has there been much action on the Titans to win the AFC after beating Indy Monday night and jumping out to a 7-0 start?

Michael Perry - Not a whole lot really. They are pretty decent favorite (+160) at the moment, so there isnt a lot of value betting the Titans to win the AFC.

John (Florida) - Florida really put the hammer down on Kentucky (63-5) last week. Coach Urban Meyer has shown time after time he enjoys running up the score. Is that something you consider when you’re setting Florida’s lines?

Michael Perry - Nope, not really. There are too many other factors that are more important when assessing what a spread should be.

Rick (Toronto) - The first week of the NBA season is on its way. How is the action on the games so far?

Michael Perry - Pretty decent action so far. The Lakers will easily be the most popular choice for the betting public. Early on, they have shown everyone why they are the favorite to win the NBA, now that Andrew Bynum is back in the mix.

Charlie (Flagstaff) - Bad break for Greg Oden. How does his absence impact the lines you set for the Blazers?

Michael Perry - Since Portland has another talented big man in LaMarcus Aldridge and a suitable center in Joel Pryzbilla, the Oden injury isn't a crippling one for the Blazers. Oden "should" be back in 2-4 weeks.

Phil (Dallas) - Big game on Saturday between Texas and Texas Tech. Who is the public backing in this game?

Michael Perry - Even though sharp money is on Texas Tech (the line has gone from Texas -6 to -3.5), the betting public is on Texas. The Longhorns are attracting 62 percent of the action.

Kelly (Tampa) - How did the book make out on the World Series? Must have breathed a sigh of relief when the Phillies won considering the Rays were 150-1 at the start of the year to win?

Michael Perry - Huge win for the books with Philly winning the World Series. We had some bets on Tampa Bay at 250-1, and would have lost a decent chunk of change if the Rays had won it all. We shaded the World Series price a bit in the Rays favor (to attract more Philly bets), but again we would have lost a pretty good amount of loot, if Tampa had won the World Series.

Sam (Baltimore) - Another big game this Saturday is Florida vs. Georgia. Who is the early money on?

Michael Perry - Ahh, the world's largest cocktail party. Make sure you dont drink too much during this one, because this baby should be a doozy. People are all over Florida (-6.5) in this game, with the public backing the Gators at a 75 percent rate.

Barry (LA) - How long does the books generally wait before they adjust the division and conference odds for the NBA?

Michael Perry - We usually make adjustments once a week. Teams usually play 3-4 games a week. Since this makes up only about 5 percent of the season, there really is no reason to adjust it more than once a week.

Ian (Anaheim) - North Carolina tops the preseason coaches poll for NCAA basketball. Do you take the rankings into consideration when you are setting futures for NCAA basketball?

Michael Perry - Don’t take that much into preseason rankings, because trust me, they will shift dramatically after a month.

Bill (Miami) - Who are your sleeper picks for Saturday and Sunday?

Michael Perry - I like Georgia (buy 0.5 point to make it +7) versus Florida. Bulldogs have the offense to go toe-to-toe with Tim Tebow and the Gators. In NFL, I like Green Bay (+4.5). Coming off a bye, the Packers are well-rested and should have a good game plan for the undefeated Titans.

1 comment
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BurningPlanet26 says:
11/01/08 08:17PM

LOL at the Georgia pick. I think he might be right about Green Bay though!

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