Larry Josephson breaksdown the rest of the regular season schedule now that we're at the mid-way mark of the NFL calendar.
AFC SOUTH -- What’s up with Tennessee?
Any team that can cover seven times in a row is not getting much love from the betting public. But that may be changing. The Titans give 5.5 to a decent Green Bay team coming off a bye week, and the number has been holding steady in just about every book. The Titans can pretty much put away the division before the last of the Halloween candy is disposed of, and the two toughest games on the schedule – Pittsburgh in Week 16 and at Indianapolis in Week 17 – could be meaningless in the standings.
Outlook for second half: Barring a rash of injuries, the Titans will be playing for home field throughout the playoffs. Houston has covered the over number six times in seven games, and the number Sunday is at 47.
NFC EAST – Why did we doubt the Giants?
Apparently something did indeed click late last season when the left-for-dead Jints got rolling. Anyone over the age of 40 loves the way Tom Coughlin has stiff-armed Plaxico Burress and still wins tough games, which is a good thing because the second half of the schedule has nothing but teams with winning records (until Minnesota in Week 17).
Outlook for the second half (courtesy of Covers Expert Steve Merril): “Both the Redskins and the Giants look like strong contenders to make the playoffs, so at least one wild card team will be coming from the NFC East. The Cowboys are 5-3 straight up and should finish about 9-7, probably not good enough to make the playoffs.”
AFC EAST -- Is Brett Favre that much of an upgrade from Chad Pennington?
Or . . . can a shoot-from the-hip, Hall of Fame quarterback find happiness playing for a control-freak coach? Business may be still booming in the Meadowlands Pro Shop, but does Favre at 39 have enough left in the tank to move the Jets beyond the mushy middle, where they now reside? No question New York is better on both sides of the ball than at this point last year, but that bar isn’t too high.
Outlook for the second half: Dec. 28. Week 17. New England at Buffalo. A foot or more of lake effect snow. Five degrees. Winner-take-all.
AFC WEST -- Can anyone win it?
Location, location, location. The Chargers may be the worst team in the AFC West, except for everyone else. As San Diego and Denver stagger to the finish line on Week 17, they may resemble the dogs in late stages of the Iditarod race. Neither team can stop anyone (combined they have given up almost 400 points), which accounts in part for a combined 9-5-1 mark for the over. Chargers’ big win over New England a few weeks back now appears to be fool’s gold.
Outlook for the second half: Just a hunch. LaDainian Tomlinson reverts to 80 percent of what he was a few years ago, the defense realizes Shawne Merriman is not walking through that door and steps up, and SD’s overall 9-7 record squeezes out Denver.
NFC NORTH -- Will Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago play musical chairs all season?
Looks like it. None of the three seems to have enough juice on defense to separate themselves from the other two, and all three are united in the fact that they will all beat the snot out of the Lions and start with two division wins. The Packers’ superior overall talent won’t matter if Aaron Rodgers’ shoulder doesn’t heal. One note: Six quarterbacks have had their best ratings ever in games against the Lions this year.
Outlook for the second half: It’s not too hard to see the scramble continue. Minnesota already has two division losses and nearly lost to Detroit. This division could be determined by the winner of the Bears-Packers game Dec. 22. Little chance of a wild card team coming out of here.
NFC SOUTH – Can this division keep pace with the NFC East?
Overall and against the number, this division is solid. Everyone can score and everyone is dominating at home. But there are division games just about every weekend starting next week, and defense (Carolina, Tampa Bay) should start to take control. Carolina has a bye this week, then has a relatively benign schedule leading into a fun Monday night game at home against the Bucs on Dec. 8.
Outlook for the second half: The Panthers keep control with their excellent defense, but Tampa stays in the hunt for a wild card while Atlanta and New Orleans execute a slow fade pattern.
NFC WEST – Can the Cardinals figure out a way to lose it?
Sure, and the Democrats can lose next Tuesday, but that probably won’t happen. The Cards have a two-game edge over Tom, Dick and Harry and have a perfect opportunity to put this race to rest over the next three weeks (at St. Louis, home vs. San Francisco and at Seattle). Two wins basically closes it out, and three wins means that every game in this division from Thanksgiving on is played merely to comply with NFL bylaws. Cards are 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS.
Outlook for the second half: Unless Arizona’s offense blows a head gasket, the only fun will be watching Mike Singletary’s post-game press conferences.
AFC NORTH – Can this go down to the final week?
The Bataan Death March against the NFC East will likely shut the door on a wild card team coming out of the North. Throw out the equivalent of a bye week Nov. 20 against Cincinnati, and the Steelers’ schedule consists of legitimate playoff teams. But Baltimore has basically the same road. Pittsburgh gets a couple of points Monday night in Washington, while the loser of Sunday’s Baltimore/Cleveland game will be obvious road kill (Ravens get 1.5) and the winner can position itself for a wild card run.
Outlook for the second half: Grim. This is the lowest-scoring division in the league and sorely lacks offensive playmakers. Still, a wild card is possible if the likes of Indianapolis, San Diego and Jacksonville can’t right their ships.