Are you confused yet? If not, you just aren’t paying attention.
It seems there are more options for the BCS title game this season than Graham Harrell has on second-and-five on the 50-yard line.
“It makes for a very cautious approach to setting the BCS title game odds each week,” says Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betEd.com “This season definitely stands out as having more potential scenarios than past seasons.”
He’s not kidding. There’s a logjam at the top of the favorites list to win the national championship and BCS rankings don’t seem to have a heck of a lot to do with it. Texas (No. 1 in BCS) and Penn State (No. 3) lead the way at just +200. Sniffing right behind is USC at +300, Bama (No. 2) at +450 and Florida (No. 8) at +500.
Wait a second. Why is one-loss, crap-schedule, whoops-I-did-it-again USC the third favorite at +300?
The Trojans are ranked No. 5 in the BCS standings and don’t deserve to get in ahead of a one-loss SEC team or a one-loss Big 12 team in my books.
“Our USC odds reflect both action and public perception. It's still anyone's guess who's even going to be in the BCS game this year -- which makes things much tighter on our odds to win the BCS board,” says Scott.
“Out of the top five favorites to win the BCS, Texas, Penn St, Alabama, USC and Florida, the most popular pick is USC.”
Also a little weird is that Georgia is +1000 because the Gators are only at +500 and they’re favored by just 5.5 over the Dogs this week. Also strange is that 8-0 Texas Tech is way behind that at +1500, despite being only 3.5 dogs this week against Texas.
If the Bulldogs and Raiders can pull off upsets this weekend, though, this board is shrapnel.
“If Georgia wins,” Scott explains, “Florida will be completely out of the running for the BCS title and that should bring Georgia into the top five contenders. If Texas Tech wins, the race for a solid No. 1 team starts all over again.
“If that happens I think we'll see a major shake up in the top five odds to win that could see Alabama as the next No. 1.”
If that happens, everyone who loves the BCS will love it because of the exciting controversy. Everyone who hates it will also love it because they love to hate the exciting controversy. So if everybody loves it, the BCS has to be a good system, right?
This is why I usually avoid talking about the BCS in my column because I just end up feeling car sick by the end of it.
At any rate, Scott says that until there is more separation, he’ll keep all the teams who still have a chance to get to the BCS title game set at the shortest odds and then adjust things from there.
The good news is you still have until Saturday afternoon to hammer Texas Tech and look like a genius. Or a total sucker.
While you’re thinking it over, here are some picks to ponder after another incredible 3-1 week last week. We’re still rolling to the end zone at 20-12-1 on the season.
Oh yeah – and happy friggin’ Halloween.
Tulane vs. LSU (-25, 54.5)
The Green Wave is having a little quarterback problem right now. Their No. 1 guy, Kevin Moore, is struggling and their No. 2 guy, Joe Kemp, is a redshirt freshman.
To top it off, the starting running back is done for the year.
In times like this, what your QB really needs is a vote of confidence. A few words from the coach that shows he really believes in you heading into Baton Rouge.
"It's going to be a difficult game, and we don't want Joe to get demoralized," Tulane coach Bob Toledo told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "LSU is a really good football team. I know they gave up some big plays (to Georgia), but obviously we're not capable of making big plays right now. I'd say right now that both are going to get a chance to play, but we haven't made that decision yet."
Pick: LSU
Northwestern vs. Minnesota (-6.5, 44)
Oddsmakers messed up here. Northwestern star running back Tyrrell Sutton is lost for the season with a broken arm and quarterback C.J. Bacher will play on a delicate hamstring – if at all - that could snap like a dried out wishbone at any moment.
The Cats couldn’t get much going on the ground against a woeful Indiana defense last week once Sutton exited the game and watching Bacher’s replacement, Mike Kafka, was more painful than a kidney stone.
Kafka actually threw the ball backwards while getting tackled on Northwestern’s second-last play, which set things up for a lovely 3rd and 25 on the Cats’ own five-yard line. He fumbled on the next play to seal the deal and Northwestern fans are now praying for Bacher’s hammy.
Pick: Minnesota
Georgia vs. Florida (-5.5, 56.5)
This is about the time Mark Richt wishes he didn’t go ahead and do that Gator Stomp thing.
Pick: Florida
Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (-2.5, 41.5)
Covers.com associate editor Ashton Grewal sits at his desk, glaring glaze-eyed at his computer screen contemplating his miserable existence working for a jerk of an editor.
Suddenly, a voice behind him snaps him out of his trance.
Jerk Editor: Hey Ash. Who is going to cover this week, Florida State or Georgia Tech?
AG: Georgia Tech.
JE: Incorrect.
Pick: Florida State