For those who spent too much time at Hooters last night—with or without John Daly— here are some quick eye-openers to shake those Halloween hangovers.
•During Pete Carroll’s tenure, USC is 21-6 ATS in November.
•UTEP’s Mike Price is a dismal 18-45-1 ATS in November.
• Rain is expected to impact Washington State-Stanford, Oregon-Cal and Arizona State-Oregon State.
•According to the NCAA News, the new clock rules have cut an average of eight plays per game, but I’d be surprised if scoring is down significantly. If fact, judging by the large number of totals posted over 70 each week, I would dare to guess points are up this year. I’ll look deeper into this next week.
Two I'm Playing
Last Week: 1-2. (Ugh. It was a lot worse than the score indicates.)
Season: 26-14-1
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-3)
Pick: Kentucky
For a banged-up team on the road in the SEC, oddsmakers gave the Wildcats a lot of respect by opening the line at only -1.5.
It jumped quickly to -3, after Kentucky announced it was switching quarterbacks.
I think it’s going the wrong way.
Replacing inaccurate sophomore Mike Hartline with true freshman Randall Cobb is a blessing for the Wildcats' sluggish offense. Cobb is an extremely talented athlete, who was recruited heavily in the SEC and ACC. This kid can play.
He has been used mostly at wide receiver this season, although he has sparked the offense several times in spot time at quarterback.
I also like an angry and opportunistic Kentucky defense against a Mississippi State offense, which has improved, but is far from explosive.
Even without their top running back and top receiver, Kentucky is the more-talented team. The insertion of Cobb should jumpstart the offense, and the Wildcat defense should keep the Bulldogs right around their season average of 16.5 points a game.
Florida State at Georgia Tech (-2.5)
Pick: Florida State
Two months into the season, defenses now have a lot more film to study Paul Johnson's option attack and are finding ways to slow it down.
The Jackets are averaging less than four yards a carry in their last two games. Now, they must face Florida State’s third-ranked defense and coordinator Mickey Andrews, who is no stranger to the option.
Georgia Tech's secondary is missing its only senior starter, cornerback Jahi Word-Daniels. His freshman replacement was burnt twice on touchdown passes in last week's loss to Virginia. Another key member of the Yellow Jackets’ secondary Dominique Reese is questionable, although the feeling is he won’t play.
The Seminoles opened as small favorites, but I’m hoping to get at least a field goal by kickoff.
Cover Community Shout-out
So, as mentioned, my picks blew last week. But I did lead you to this great thread.
Props to Manifesto for compiling a list of consensus plays from the site's top handicappers. It reportedly helped Cashflow_Cowboy hit an $11,000 eight-game round robin with six-team parlays.
Here's this week's thread. Keep up the good work, gentlemen.
Q&A with a Better Bettor
Award-winning journalist Allen Moody, who manages the New York Times-owned About.com’s sports gambling site, has seen all sides of the game, as a bettor, bookie and sports service operator.
In other words, he’s better than me.
Q: Trap lines. Lines that look too good to be true (and usually are): What are some of things you look for when you suspect a line to be strangely off target?
A: The concept of trap lines is an interesting one, as now oddsmakers can hang an occasional bad number and there will be certain people who wager on the team getting the worst of the odds, believing the oddsmakers know something they don't.
The best thing bettors can do is when they spot a line that appears off is to simply follow the money by using a site such as covers.com that shows betting percentages. If the team, which appears to be a can't-lose proposition, is receiving the majority of the money being wagered on the game, that's when I'll give the other side serious consideration.
Q: The vast majority of trends are irrelevant: Agree or disagree? Which trends do you feel are the most relevant?
A: I agree that for the most part trends hold very little value, especially in college football, where a number of players responsible for those tendencies have likely graduated. They hold even less value if the coach has moved on, as well.
I think league-wide trends have to be given much more weight than team-specific trends because they have a larger sample size and generally tend to have less year-to-year fluctuation.
Still, trends are best used to supplement your plays, not create them.
If you like a team and it has several historical angles in its favor, so much the better. But I wouldn't simply wager on a team just because it had the trends in its favor.
Q: I drive a nearly 10-year-old Oldsmobile. What do you drive?
A: I drive a 2009 Toyota Yaris, which is probably the cheapest new car you can buy.
Q: Your top play for Saturday.
A: Right now, I'd have to give the nod to Florida over Georgia.
Best of luck everyone. Hope you have more treats than tricks on you card.