College four-play: Week 9 predictions

By JON CAMPBELL | October 24, 2008 | 18 comments
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When I first saw it, I sprained my jaw from the force with which it hit the floor.

 

Yes, that’s what it was. It was jaw-spraining, it was so unbelievable.

 

I’m talking, of course, about the hit by umpire Wilbur Hackett Jr. on South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia in last week’s LSU-USC game. It’s been Youtubed to death, but once you see it, you have to watch it at least five more times just to make sure nobody slipped acid into your coffee.

 

There is no doubt Hackett squares up, does a few quick shuffle steps and springs into Garcia with his shoulder, laying him out like a picnic blanket.

 

The claim by the SEC and Steve Spurrier that he was just trying to get out of the way are enough to make us bettors question laying another dollar on an SEC game for the rest of the season. At best, it’s a completely irresponsible claim by an institution that repeatedly scoffs at the betting world like it’s filled with a bunch of child molestors.

 

If the SEC and NCAA do not look into this and give the public some kind of explanation, they are merely fuelling everything that is wrong with sports gambling, when almost every one of us just wants a fair shake at our wagers on Saturday.

 

For what it’s worth, I’m not accusing Hackett of being on the take. Once I read he was a pretty mean linebacker at Kentucky in his day, I think he just had a moment of Pavlovian instinct and did what he had been trained to do a million times before without even realizing it.

 

But don’t cover it up. Don’t feed us the dog droppings that he was just trying to get out of the way.

 

OK, deep breath.

 

That’s my rant for the week. Now let’s focus on happier things, like picks. I went 2-2 last week and I’m now 17-11-1 on the season.

 

You’ll note that I’m not going near the SEC this week. That conference is on betting suspension until further notice.

  

Boston College vs. North Carolina (-3, 43)

 

I’m not really sure what BC has to do to get some credit around this joint. And by joint, I mean college football nation.

 

The Eagles had a bit of a cushiony schedule up until last week, but when they beat Virginia Tech, 28-23, it should have been enough to convince the doubters.

 

This defense is nasty. It ranks fourth in the nation in overall D and fifth in passing defense. And just because it lost Brian Toal for the season, doesn’t mean that should change your mind about it. Senior Robert Francois steps in for him and shouldn’t miss a beat.

 

If all this isn’t enough to convince you, consider UNC is without its starting quarterback T.J. Yates and best playmaker Brandon Tate. The Heels scored just 13 points in the loss to a shoddy, albeit a little improved Virginia squad last week.

 

Pick: Boston College

 

Michigan State vs. Michigan (+3.5, 45)

 

As weird as this sounds, I think the Spartans got hammered as badly as they did last Saturday by 5-1 Ohio State because they were looking ahead to 2-5 Michigan.

 

Michigan State is a little more than ticked after losing for the sixth straight time to Michigan last year and then having to listen to Mike Hart chirp the school about being the Wolverines’ little brother.

 

Worse, the boosters are ticked. They’ve watched their money fly down the drain in five of the last six losses and they want some of it back.

 

Pick: Michigan State

 

Oklahoma State vs. Texas (-13, 70)

 

Did a Longhorns alum make this line or something? Maybe he won a contest and got to set this week’s line. I can just see the conversation around the sportsbook war room.

 

“Boy, if there’s one thing I know about college football, it’s that Texas is the best dang team in the whole wide land. Who we play this week? Okleehoma State? Heck, they stink worse than a pile a manure on a 110-degree day in Austin!

 

“What’s their record, anyhow? Duddin’ matter. Longhorns roll! Yeehaw!”

 

Bang! Bang!

 

Pick: Oklahoma State    

 

Oregon vs. Arizona State (+3, 53.5)  

 

Many of us can remember one of the first things our parents did to us when we messed up as youngsters – no TV.

 

Oregon and Arizona State are getting the same punishment for their underachieving performances so far. (You can see the game on tape delay in the state of Oregon if you’re really bored and can resist looking at a ticker until then.)

 

I really want to take the Sunny Ds here in front of a big home crowd of nearly 70,000. But I’m a little worried about Rudy Carpenter’s sprained ankle and the fact this team has to be a little dead inside after watching their hope-filled season crumble like a clump of desert dirt after four straight losses.

 

Pick: Oregon 

18 comments
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GatorPud says:
10/24/08 08:05PM

Jon, the guy was about to score a touchdown...how else is the Ref going to stop him? he could throw a flag but if he has 5-10K on the game its time for a somebody to make a tackle.

I thought it was a clean hit.

(full disclosure: I had 500 on LSU)

gmar55 says:
10/24/08 08:34PM

A lot of road picks this week Jon. I'm often guilty of the same subliminal road team bias when looking at lines as the road team usually gets a few points in their favour (please note the Canadian spelling) for being... well... on the road, making the line look good.

Either way, with you on most of these picks. Good luck.

Jon_Campbell says:
10/24/08 08:43PM

LOL, Gpud! Glad you didn't suffer as much as Garcia from the forearm shiver.

BRollin says:
10/24/08 08:49PM

Hey Jon, No offense, but anyone who uses the excuse you did for Mich State's loss to Ohio State (looking ahead to Mich) cannot be taken seriously -- not even remotely -- and should be examined before he's allowed to post an article where people are actually listening to him. People actually bet their hard earned cash on what you say...

Even if you think it (and obviously you do), don't say it b/c it really steals any small amount of credibility you might've had before you wrote it.

I have no opinion on the game. That part of your article just seemed... really UN-Insightful.

WizrduvOdz says:
10/25/08 02:08AM

Gotta agree with BRollin..........that said, I think MSU rolls........like the Ok St pick too

nc1capper says:
10/25/08 03:17AM

I like your thinking sir, I'm on Ok state at 12.5... I had the sooners and the tigers too so it's time to stop this longhorn stampede,, I'm on zona to at + 16, lets see if a couple of solid clubs can slow these two powerhouses down enough too get us to the cashiers window (I'm at 33-19-1 for the season thanks in part to your insight and wisdom, keep it pumpin)

youthehoeeee says:
10/25/08 03:30AM

I have put in the time all week to study these lines get the needed information and I'm only putting out my best lines to you for Sat. These are my top rated plays and I look to get right back in the grove and start destroying the books again.

Top Play

Fresno State -15 5 units

Email me for the rest of my top plays for sat and sunday

Jonrusso@nflcappers.com

KasperNV says:
10/25/08 03:43AM

I like all four. BOL

GeorgeCarlin says:
10/25/08 05:21AM

with you on BC and OREGON. Staying away from Texas games. OKie ST hasnt won there since FDR in 1946

BigLoad says:
10/25/08 11:29AM

after a 4-0 week I went 1-3 on your picks by changing one then adding a 1-1 record on two others for a mediocre week. I went big on last nights game straight up and won so I have a good week started. I like BC and the OKA staTE PICKS SO i MIST GO WITH THEM.

Frankly that hit by the REF was really more of a hit you see in Hockey that football. Needless to say it was a clean hit with no flag thrown - so waddyagonnado

BigLoad says:
10/25/08 11:35AM

NOpe took Oregon also. and as a note at Logans they have the linje at 2.5 on the BC game

RMONTAS says:
10/25/08 11:40AM

CINCINNATY.............EASY MONEY

doobiebrother says:
10/25/08 01:03PM

Still working on my write ups, but for the record my lone early play is 3 on Purdue +2.

doobiebrother says:
10/25/08 01:26PM

This week 0-1 (-2.2), CFB 39-32-1 (+15.5). All trends ATS unless otherwise noted.

Purdue (+2) - Boilermakers have suffered through #3 schedule, and despite records, actually have the better team here. They held OSU to 222 total yards in Columbus, held PSU to season low 20, blew big lead in losing to Oregon in OT, beat 2 time defending MAC champ CMU, and played much closer than scores in road losses at ND (yardage 462-476) and Northwestern (466-451). They’ll have to win out to go bowling for 11th time in 12 years, but with toughest games behind them, it’s not out of the question. Purdue 9-1 SU & 7-2-1 ATS vs. Minny (5-0, 4-0-1 H) and notches another in Tiller’s last Homecoming.

UNLV (+23.5) - BYU will light up porous UNLV “D”, but will be hard pressed to cover large number, as Rebs will also get their points. Cougar “D” lost 8 starters from LY and played only bottom 15 offenses prior to being exposed at TCU, and faces another speedy spread offense here. Rebels can move it on the ground (141 YPG, 4.2 YPR) and in the air (227 YPG, 144.4 rating), convert 3rd downs (42.7%, BYU “D” allows 44.6%) and are only team in CFB perfect in red zone (20-20, 17 TD). They also have a kicker who’s good up to 50.

Duke (+10.5) - Emotional dead spot for overachieving Vandy, who has to play at emotional peak weekly just to keep from getting routed in SEC. Off 3 tough SEC games, hosting Florida NW, and playing non-con foe they’ve beat 5 straight times, the L4 by 14>. Commodores don’t have offense (#118, 249 YPG) to lay DD to anyone, and in last non-con H game gained just 344 vs. Rice, a horrible defensive team (#116, 481 YPG). Duke has only 8 TOs (#12) and 37 penalty YPG (#15), so they won’t give it away. Vandy 2-8 non-con HF.

Alabama/Tennessee Under (40) – Vols don’t have an offense (#106 total, #95 scoring, #104 pass efficiency) but “D” has been awesome (#11 total, #17 scoring, #17 pass). Bama “D” should hold them to single digits, but Vols might have limited success moving the ball (and the clock) on the ground due to absence of mammoth NT Cody. Under 10-0 Vols H, 10-0 Vols in Oct, and 8-1 Vols vs. SEC. L2 meetings in Knoxville totaled 29 and 30.

Virginia/Georgia Tech Under (43) – Added this one late after public hammered the over, but looks like under to me. Cavs will be hard pressed to score at all vs. nasty Tech DL, and although they will have trouble stopping GT option, 90% rushing plays keeps the clock moving.

Florida St. (-6.5) - Beamer a miracle worker posting DD wins yearly and winning 16 of 1st 17 road games in ACC play, despite limited blue chip talent. That streak ended LW when 5 BC TOs, including 2 returned for TDs, still couldn’t get Hokies over the top. FSU “D” #3 overall, #1 3rd downs (18.5%), and #7 vs. run (80 YPG, 2.7 YPR), and VT has no passing game (#114 pass, #108 efficiency). Seminole offense #29 overall and #17 rushing (223 YPG, 5.5 YPR) and Hokie run “D” not as staunch as usual (#43, 123, 3.6). VT #117 in net punting and FSU has dangerous return men. Larger talent gap than some may think.

Oklahoma St./Texas Under (67.5) – Longhorn offense has been impressive, but so has Cowboy “D”, holding Mizzou to 23 on the road and shutting down Baylor and QB Griffin (204 total yards) LW, despite letdown situation. They will try to use #5 running game (284 YPG) to keep Texas offense off field, and are highly unlikely to go 3 and out in 1st 5 series like Missouri did, allowing Horns’ offense to get in rhythm.

Parlay Wyoming (+30.5) and Under (41) - Yes, I know Wyoming is 0-14-1 L15 and 0-15-1 vs. MWC, and that they are #119 in scoring offense (9.0 PPG). I also know that their defense (#35 TY, #22 LY) still shows up every week and comes off spectacular outing at Utah, holding Utes to 242 total yards, but misleading score due to 3 non-offensive TDs. Cowboys coming off bye and TCU coming off huge BYU win. Under 9-0 TCU at H. Bottom line, Frogs probably won’t even score 30.

USF/Louisville under (52) – Teams are #7 (USF) and #26 (Lousville) in total defense and Cards will try to use strong running game (#18, 211 YPG) to keep explosive Bulls offense off the field, and should have just enough success to move the chains (and clock). Louisville doesn’t have a kicker (2-5 FG, 0 attempts outside 40) and USF kicker only good from short range (2-8 outside 40).

Texas Tech/Kansas Over (68) - Raiders rank #1 in pass offense and #103 in pass “D”, Jayhawks #6 pass offense and #88 pass “D”. Tech near unstoppable on offense as no one can cover Crabtree, Harrell has been sacked only once, and tough run “D” (#12) doesn’t allow opponents to hold ball. Reesing and Jayhawks offense have already posted 34 and 31 in comeback attempts vs. USF and Oklahoma, and 35 in comeback win vs. ISU, all on the road. Kansas WR Briscoe had 12 catches for 269 yards and 2 TDs LW at Oklahoma.

All Plays 3 Units, except Wyoming parlay, which is 2.

MobJustice says:
10/25/08 02:27PM

Doobie - love the Duke pick

DaShowStopa says:
10/25/08 02:33PM

Colorado @ Missouri

Colorado is 1-5 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. Colorado is 24-43 ATS since 1992 when playing in October. Colorado is 5-15 ATS as an underdog last 3 years. Missouri is scoring 45.9 points per game overall and 46.5 points per game at home this year. Missouri is allowing only 17.2 points per game at home this season. Buffaloes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. Buffaloes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Buffaloes are 7-19 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Buffaloes are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October. Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Tigers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Tigers are 18-4 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Tigers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Tigers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. Tigers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Tigers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games. Favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.

Pick******Missouri -24*******

cantex48 says:
10/25/08 04:08PM

nice one...Gators,feel kinda stupid for overlookin that and takin lousy BC,am ill,now will look opposite of article writer

cubboy says:
10/25/08 04:23PM

burnet what do you think of the over in tcu game 40.5

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