I don’t put much significance on line movements. As previously mentioned, I’m looking for safe covers, games decided by more than 14 points of the spread. So the line moving a couple points either way really doesn’t play a big role in my handicapping.
But it does to the sharp guys, who are risking and making a lot more money than I am.
According to Randy Scott, sportsbook manager at betED.com, the three biggest days for sharp action are Monday, Thursday and right before kickoff on Saturday. Line movements on these days have the most validity.
Sharps hit opening-line mistakes on Monday; go after opening totals on Thursday, and finally scoop up any games where the public has adjusted the line inappropriately with Saturday’s morning rush.
“The public bettors always wait until close to game time before making their bets,” explained Scott. “That's when the sportsbooks will adjust their odds based on the large volume the public brings.
“Just before game time, another wave of sharp action comes in looking for value and betting against the public-inflated lines.”
How much do you pay attention to line moves? How much do you figure it in to your handicapping?
How a Pro Develops his Card
During football season, professional sports bettor David Malinksy works on two weeks at a time.
By Sunday, he’ll have estimated lines for the current week’s games as well the following week’s slate. He takes care of the factors that won’t change, like past head-to-head matchups, in advance.
“By doing this, many of our processes are completed when the opening lines hit the board on Sunday night, which enables us to take advantage of any early line mistakes,” he said.
As the week progresses, Malinsky monitors practice reports, trying to get “rhythm as to when injured players will be returning.”
“But the most important aspect is to watch as many of the games as we can on a Saturday or Sunday, looking for particular items that will matter against the team that they will be facing the following week,” he added.
He does not hesitate to pounce on a game at anytime during the week and calls the development of his card an “active process from the time the lines first hit the board, until each game kicks off.”
“It is not unusual to have a week in which we make a bet every single day as lines move and information becomes available,” he said. “There are obviously a lot of early-week settings that we buy into quickly, but many times the best line that we are going to find on a particular game will come on game-day itself, if we believe that the public will be on the other side.”
Three I’m Playing
Last week: 2-0
Season 25-12-1
Oklahoma at Kansas State (+19, 71)
Pick: Under 71
Oklahoma’s defense is not nearly as bad as it looked against Texas (45-35 L) and Kansas (45-31 W).
“We are not at the level we are used to, so we expect more,” coach Bob Stoops told reporters in Tuesday’s press conference. “But if you look at us compared to everyone else in the league, we are probably toward the top of everything.”
He’s right. The Sooners are No. 1 in the Big 12 in five defensive categories, including total defense, sacks and pass efficiency defense.
I expect Oklahoma’s defense to play much better against Kansas State for the following reasons:
•OU gave up some big plays last week against Kansas, but that can be attributed to players adjusting to recent personnel shifts. Safety Nic Harris was move to linebacker, and junior Quinton Carter was inserted at strong safety.
With a week under their belt, I expect the big plays to be cut in half.
•Oklahoma matches up well with one-dimensional, pass-happy Kansas State, especially with a speedier defensive lineup.
“They have moved a couple guys from safety positions to linebacker, making them very fast,” Kansas State coach Ron Prince told reporters. “It makes them able to stay in regular personal when you have multiple receivers on the field. I can’t see anything that they have lost from making that move at all.”
•Kansas State’s offense is not anywhere near as good as Kansas’ or Texas’.
•Along with the recent defensive letdowns, Oklahoma has had trouble giving up long kickoff returns. OU shouldn’t have to defend as short of field this week. Kansas State is 118th in the nation in kickoff returns.
I see Oklahoma jumping out to a big lead and running the clock out with the ground game in the second half. Something like 45-16.
Kentucky at Florida (-26, 48)
Pick: Kentucky
The Gators have a tendency to sleepwalk into early kickoffs. Their loss to Ole Miss this season was a 12:30 kickoff.
Kentucky has some publicized injuries and will be without its top running back and top receiver. This has caused over-inflation of the line, which has jumped four points.
The Wildcats hang around with a talented, athletic defense, similar to Ole Miss’.
Kentucky has five All-SEC candidates on defense and will be able to match up with the Gators’ offensive stars.
Florida is 1-3 the last four years the week before playing Georgia.
Penn State at Ohio State (+2, 46)
Pick: Penn State.
Supermodel Baby Mama is forcing me to go to some kind of birth class from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m., Saturday. I guess that’s important …
I probably wouldn’t have played this one, but a whole Saturday without getting to watch some action-laced football is too much for me to take. Out with discipline, in with the “because it’s on TV” bet.
ESPN radio guy Colin Cowherd said on his show that his friend who makes a living as a sports bettor told him Penn State is the play. Good enough for me.
Covers Community Shout-out
This week’s shout-out goes to Manifesto. He has put together a great thread that features consensus picks from some of the Covers Community top handicappers.