(+134) Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays (-144)
Tampa Bay comes into the World Series with just two days rest after their classic battle with the Red Sox in the ALCS. Meanwhile, the Phillies will be a full week removed from their pennant clinching victory in Game 5 of the NLCS.
A lot of attention will probably be paid to this, but you should ignore it. If the Rays win, it will be because the long layoff hurt the Phillies. If Philadelphia wins, it's because the Rays were exhausted from the Red Sox series.
Notice, though, how nobody is making either of these statements with much confidence right now.
As for the actual games on the field, the Game 1 line is very telling with the Phillies on the road actually being a slight favorite. Phillies ace Cole Hamels essentially cancelling out Tampa Bay's home-field advantage - for the game and the series.
The Rays would have to have a huge advantage in their other three home games to justify laying -144. They do have an edge in all three contest, with Myers vs. Shields twice, and then Matt Garza potentially pitching another Game 7 against Jamie Moyer. But the Phillies have three home games themselves. They’ll be big favorites when Hamels pitches in Citizens Bank Park, and will likely also be favored with Joe Blanton on the hill in Game 5. I don’t know if it’s because the books are trying to hedge against all the preseason Rays futures, but the value here seems to lie in the plus money with Philadelphia.
Another area of concern is the apparent huge gap between the two leagues. The AL’s All-Star Game and World Series dominance is nice anecdotal evidence, but here’s what really matters: there were 252 interleague games played this year, and the AL won 59.1 percent of them.
This was no fluke, either. The NL didn’t do much better from 2005-2007, winning just 43.5 percent of those interleague games.
Verdict: There’s no question that the AL is the superior league, and Tampa Bay just emerged from the toughest division in that league. But I still don’t think that justifies laying this much chalk against a very strong Phillies team. I’m going with Philadelphia in seven.