Denver at New England (-3, 48)
Denver travels to New England for this week's version of the game that John Madden used to announce. The teams have a combined record of just 7-4. That's perhaps only one or two more losses than people would have expected at the start of the year. The difference is that virtually everyone would have guessed that New England wouldn't have contributed anything to loss column. What could have been a showdown between the current king of quarterbacks and a crown prince looking to challenge for the top spot is instead one between one team with a QB and one without. The latter isn't so compelling.
In a clear sign of just how much things have changed for the Pats' this year (not that anyone with a half a brain needs any more of those), about two-thirds of the bets in this game have been made on the Broncos, the three-point underdogs. It takes a lot for the public to turn their backs on a public team, and the Pats have been the definition of a public team for much of this decade. High profile teams automatically have high profile struggles, though, so the inability of Matt Cassel to play football has registered strongly with the general public. The line has moved about as you would expect. It opened with the Pats favored by as much as 4.5, but has adjusted so that they are now up by just the key number of three.
Monday Night Football games have been completely incapable of going under the total, and the line movement suggests that that trend is expected by many to continue. It opened at 46, higher than all but the three games at 47, but then moved up to 48, the highest total of the week. The general impression could be that Denver is an over machine because they score so much, and New England is prone to stay under because of their offensive woes. That was certainly the case in the first month, but recent times have created a shift. Denver is under in their last two, and New England has gone over in two of three. The difference is in the size of totals they have faced. New England hasn't seen a total this size since the Super Bowl, while Denver has already seen two bigger this season. They covered one of them.
Offensively, this game would appear to be a mismatch. On paper, at least. The teams have similar running totals, but that's about it. Denver has passed for nearly 100 more yards per game, is averaging an extra yard per attempt, Cutler has a QB rating 17 points higher than Cassel with four times as many touchdowns, and, incredibly, Cassel has been sacked nine times as many as Cutler's microscopic two. This game might even be close if it weren't for that pesky thing called defense. Denver doesn't really play any. They are better in total yards than only virtual minor-league squads St. Louis and Detroit, and no team has been less successful at stopping the pass. They are just 26th against the run, too, so keeping it on the ground isn't much of an improvement. Matt Cassel could have a god day. On the other hand, San Diego is only marginally better defensively than Denver, and they still managed to shut the Pats down last week.
This game should be good, but it won't be as good as we expected it to be six weeks ago. That seems to describe much of what has happened this year, doesn't it?