Ness: Why you should bet on Obama
By
L.NESS - Analyst for ESPN and Fox Sports Radio
October 3, 2008
1 comment
Most pundits have called the 2008 US Presidential election the most important in the country's history and it's historic for obvious reasons.
The Democrats have nominated an African-American at the top of the ticket while the Republicans have nominated a woman as its Vice Presidential candidate.
The Republican party has been in office for the last eight years but George Bush's approval ratings rank among the lowest in American Presidential history. The US has been involved in an increasingly unpopular war and now faces its most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression. With that as a backdrop, the incumbent party (in this case the Republicans) should be overwhelming underdogs but John McCain and Barack Obama have been in an extremely tight race.
The tide has turned in Obama's favor lately though, and I believe that his lead will hold up. McCain did not do very well (according to almost all polls) in the first presidential debate and while Sarah Palin was much better than expected in the Vice Presidential debate - she had nowhere to go but up after a brutal week - early returns had Biden winning the debate. Most importantly, McCain has taken a bigger hit than Obama when it comes to the economic crisis.
McCain's comment that "the fundamentals of the American economy are sound," will be one which will live in infamy. He quickly tried to explain that by fundamentals he meant "the American worker" and shortly thereafter was saying that America was in a monumental financial crisis.
James Carville, who along with Paul Begala, coined the phrase "It's the economy, stupid," which helped Bill Clinton get elected in 1992, said McCain's gaffe was a "game-changer". Time will tell.
Hilary Clinton was the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic primary but running as the experienced candidate didn't work for her, as Obama's message of change (real or imagined) plus a better organization, won the day.
While McCain continues to maintain that Obama lacks experience and readiness, I get the strong feeling he and his advisors realize that will not be the winning argument. I have to believe that's why he picked Palin as his running mate. He surely didn't chose her for her experience or readiness.
McCain is in the unenviable position of trying to distance himself from the Bush administration plus convince voters he's an agent of change, even though he's been a part of the Washington establishment for over 25 years. It does not seem to be working on any level.
The Democrats had record turnouts in their primary season and reports are that new voters and first-time voters are favoring Obama by fairly large margins.
Things can change quickly but if the election were held today, I believe McCain would be a big loser. Whether Obama is the right man for the job or not, I don't know. But I believe he'll win come Nov. 4 with a rather comfortable margin in the electoral college.