Presidential Betting: Why you should bet on McCain
By
TED SEVRANSKY - Direct From Vegas: Sports Investing for long term profits
October 2, 2008
3 comments
We have an unpopular incumbent Republican President. We’re fighting an unpopular and potentially unwinnable war. And we have an economy that is teetering on the brink of recession.
These three factors all point strongly to the out-of-power party winning the presidency in November. But that is all factored into the betting marketplace – Barack Obama is the clear favorite to win the upcoming election.
My money, however, will be on the underdog John McCain at a fat, plus-money price. In my mind, there are three factors that support McCain.
The national polls mean nothing. We elect our president state-by-state and the numbers clearly show that Obama isn’t going to win unless he can carry Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. He’s a favorite in Michigan and the other two states are toss-ups, making McCain’s plus price attractive.
Secondly, the current economic turmoil does not favor an inexperienced Democrat winning the election. McCain has already painted Obama as another ‘tax and spend liberal’, and linked the Democrats to the wildly unpopular $700 billion Wall Street bailout - two factors that work strongly in his favor.
The third factor, unfortunately, is latent racism. The type of racism that showed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley leading all the polls in California — even the exit polls -- until he lost on election day. This is a 50:50 election, just like the last two in a divided United States. That makes the plus price for McCain an easy wager to make.