Hot lines: Wednesday's best MLB bets

By COVERS.com STAFF | October 1, 2008 | 75 comments
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Content by Associated Press. Picks by Covers.com Staff.

Odds courtesy Logans.com.

Boston Red Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-125, 8 ½)

The Los Angeles Angels have lost nine consecutive postseason games to the Boston Red Sox spanning three series and 22 years.

That run includes division series sweeps in 2004 and 2007, in which Boston outscored the Angels 44-16.

Sweeping Los Angeles again doesn't appear likely after the Angels took the last eight meetings from Boston in this year's nine-game season series. They averaged nearly seven runs over the nine meetings while batting .305 with 15 homers - at least one in each game. On the mound, the Angels limited Boston's potent lineup to three runs or fewer in each of the last seven matchups.

New acquisitions Torii Hunter, who hit 21 home runs and stole 19 bases after signing as a free agent last offseason, and Mark Teixeira - batting .358 with 13 homers in 54 games since arriving from Atlanta at the trade deadline - have strengthened the Angels' lineup.

"We're a different team than in years past," reliever Scot Shields, who has been with the club since 2001, said after Los Angeles beat the Red Sox 6-2 on July 29 at Fenway Park. "We have the total package."

Pick: Angels

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs (-154, 7 ½)

The 2008 Cubs are determined to put the past behind them and take the first step toward ending their century-long championship drought when they host Manny Ramirez and the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday in Game 1 of their best-of-five NL division series.

The Cubs finished with the best record in the NL this season to comfortably win the NL Central by 7 1/2 games over Milwaukee. They led the league in runs (855) and had five players with at least 20 homers, but will face a Los Angeles team that allowed the fewest runs in the league (648).

While Chicago cruised to its second straight division title, the Dodgers (84-78) trailed Arizona by 4 1/2 games on Aug. 29 before winning 18 of their next 23 to win the division by two games.

The Dodgers, who are 1-12 in four playoff series since winning the 1988 World Series, lost five of seven to the Cubs this season, but all of those games were played before Ramirez was traded to Los Angeles.

"Since we played them last, they've added Manny and he's quite a player," Chicago leadoff hitter Alfonso Soriano said. "They are a much better team with him so we are going to have be ready to play because it is going to be a tough series."

Soriano and Cubs cleanup hitter Aramis Ramirez are hoping to atone for a dismal performance in last season's playoffs, as they combined to go 2-for-26.

Pick: Over

75 comments
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TheosGame says:
10/01/08 12:12PM

the boston red sox as slight dogs in my play,

and the under 8 and half. lester will hold la in check i believe

isles19404ever says:
10/01/08 12:19PM

Good am to all. Stump, you outta bed yet???? Sorry about your CFA pick last nite...Hit the sox big last nite. Waiting on confirmation on all 3 games today, going to have a least two.... WILL post...

Stump, early NHL action: Lighting -125 over the Rangers...BIG on 10-4-08.

JJWeezer says:
10/01/08 12:46PM

Good day gents, hope all is good, been quiet after the post TB celebration...going to the 1st Ray playoff game tomorrow than double back to RayJay for the USF game...great to be in Tampa Bay right now!

isles, Lightning game is an interesting pick and as a precurser to the overseas trip, I could see a fresher squad, keep in mind Lecavileir is still sidelined from surgery, but Marty and Stamkos are starting to heat up.

I only have a slight lean on Milwater, as Mil is hitting lefty's and Hamel's last 3 starts Philly gave up 16 runs...if u told me he would be 14-10 this year, I would have never thought he would have that many losss, esp. as good as Philly's pen was the 1st half of the season. Albeit, the pen is still good, but teams are hitting .270 in their last 7, and Gallardo w/ a 1.35 era in his last game vs Phil, I like Mil so at least hit +1.5, but I'm playing the win.

GL to all

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 01:00PM

yeah good mornin' isles and theosgame..

Thats OK, seems hard to get info on what happened but I'm happy they at least won SU..

soccer games seem like they're just too close to call.. Arsenal's win I thought was predictable though but at too low a price to cover my losses..If you're going to go 2 for 4, you'd want them to be all underdogs..

Here's some interesting info for you theo..

You come with a lot of cred, so I will be paying close attention to your calls..

Traditionally , in night games in Anaheim , especially at this time of year, the ball does not fly well (long I mean). a lot of fly ball outs..Its a huge outfield though and outfielders have to be fast and have great range..Do like the looks of Kotsay in RF. His bat's finally coming alive exactly at the right time and JD Drew's got no business playing RF in this ballpark with a herniated disc in his back. Don't know much about CoCo in CF but I hope he's got the speed to stay with things out there 'cause he's going to need to..

Lester seems to be in tough here !! He has a difficult time with LAA..He's not going to get any rest through ANY part of this batting order as shown by his previous starts vs. this team..Then you have Big John Lackey..This guys a HORSE..He's capable of complete games..Reminds me of old Juan Marichal..He can probably throw 250 pitches..Just don't know what his problem has been lately for the most part..Lackey relies on super curveball for his OUTS but needs to throw five pitches to get his outs..For this reason, I need to know WHO the ump is going to be. If he gets an ump who won't give him this pitch , he's in for a long night. Maybe thats what his problem has been, is locating this pitch. Numbers look like they favor LAA bullpen tho..I got to watch LAA afair amount this year because I got ALL the Seattle telecasts..Hope some of this stuff is helpful..GL

GREAT CALL on the SOX yesterday Isles..(game made me squirm a bit tho I must say)

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 01:04PM

Lots of the experts are picking Rangers to win it all..

Isles..what do you think of a "shoot-out" prospect here ??

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 01:12PM

Ya know..the more I look at things here, the better it looks for LAA...

The total goes so hand-in hand with who wins or loses here..If Boston wins , I have no doubt it will go over because I'm sure Lester will give up 3 maybe 4 runs BEFORE the bullpen takes over...Maybe OVER 8.5 (which is what I'm getting) is the call regardless..(lots of singles and doubles)..anybody out there know who's umpin??and where do you find this out?)

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 01:22PM

LAD/CUBS

hmm..

My understanding is that the wind is blowing IN..can anyone confirm this for me?

Both pitchers are great but Derek Lowe is RE-FUKING-HOT !!Also I heard that Torre's gonna run Billingsley outta the Bullpen for this series..if true , I think it's a GREAT move (typical of that cagey ol' fox)

Leanin' toward a 1-run game here making LAD(+1.5) a reasonably safe call.

isles19404ever says:
10/01/08 01:28PM

Stump, as in the hated new york rangers??? You gotta be kiddin me??? They lost Jaramir and the pest avery to the dallas stars. Can't see them doing much damage in the eastern conference. I expect the penguins and the lighting to finish strong this year. As far as my islanders, always optimistic, but dipi wll have to have a better year and the scoring punch that they lacked last year will have to come from somewhere. I love the mark streit pick up from the habs...we will see. I heard that Mr Loungo has been named captain for you guys... Please explain your "shoot out".....

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 01:29PM

still really like the Brew Crew here at his price especially..Hamels is good but not THAT good...he does have a fair number of losses this year and as I said last night, the Phils have not ever faced Gallardo (whom I think IS the real deal)..Like Brewers hitting lefties..

Mil(M/L)

LAD(+1.5)

LAA(-1.5)

just need to win 2of em to make money (and for my ol' lady to be all over me tonight)

GL

MrX says:
10/01/08 01:31PM

LAD@CUBS UNDER 7

I see a Pitchers duel tonight both Lowe and dempters have been dominant .

Dempster 14-3 with a 2.86 ERA at Wrigley this season

Lowe has been nasty over his last 9 starts, going 5-1 with a 0.94 ERA over that span

Lowe comes into this start sporting just 2 earned runs allowed in his last 30 innings .

Dempster has allowed 3 earned runs or less in all 5 of his last 5 starts.

All 3 of the games played at Wrigley this year have stayed UNDER the total, and Lowe has allowed 3 runs in his 14 innings of work against the Cubs this year. Dempster has allowed 4 runs in his 12 frames of work against the Dodgers in 2 starts this year.

X

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 01:32PM

hey isles,

"shoot-out" is a tie game..They pay BIG out here. (like 4.5 to 5.0:1)..They have to complete the OT still tied to qualify tho..

MobJustice says:
10/01/08 01:36PM

Misconceptions about the Sox/Angels:

1. The Sox bullpen is the weak link. Lookng into it further, the Angels bullpen is WAY over rated and has its own problems people are overlooking. The Angels don't make pitchers work hard enough at all and the Sox hitters are straight Moneyball working counts.

2. The Angels have the edge offensively. The Sox produce under pressure. Until the Angels prove someone other than Vlad can hit in the postseason (and he's shaky) I'm not buying the small ball approach beating the Sox. It is the worst possible match up for the Angels.

3. Lackey has pitched well against the Sox this year but has struggled badly down the stretch. I think Scioscia (along with Gardenhire) is the most under rated manager in the game but nobody mentions his abuse of Lackey. In this day and age there are very few managers that push a starter like Scioscia does to Lackey. And the Sox don't care what happened during the season. I'm a Sox fan and if you asked me 10 years ago would the Sox would ever completely own a team in the post season I would have said you're crazy. As a Sox fan I can tell you that means a lot.

4. Lester is a cold blooded stud.

5. Red Sox win in Anaheim. There is no home field advantage for them. That really hurts the Angels. I'm going to the game tonight and the Sox fans will be almost as loud as Angels fans. For a team trying to get the monkey off its back that must be frustrating.

6. Yeah the Angels are better and last year they were hamstrung by injuries last year but they stil haven't proven sh*t. Jason Stark made a great point - The Angels haven't played a meaningful game all year. You could combine the AL West and the NL West and it still wouldn't be even close to the gauntlet that the AL East is. The Yankees would have won either division.

Red Sox +120

Red Sox over 8.5

A&R Red Sox/over

Red Sox to take the series +105

By the way - I am a HUGE homer and I know it.

Megamaniak says:
10/01/08 01:36PM

Two MLB plas for me thus far:

1) LAD ML +136

-he Dodgers have been rolling and one of the hottest teams in the league, the Cubs of late, not so much. Dodgers are rolling with a proven veteran and the Cubs have Dempster going who has no playoff experience whatsoever.

D-Lowe brings brings his 2-2 playoff record with an ERA 3.63 in seven post season starts, he was on the mound when the Sawks clinced it against the Cards several years back. Derrick has an ERA of 2.00 in Chicago last four starts with 27 IP, 20 H and 8 ER.

D-Lowe has done well against two of the Cubs premier stars. A-Ram is 2-13 lifetime vs. Lowe and Derrick Lee is hitting a mediocre .237 in 34 AB's vs. Derrick.

If the Dodgers are to win a game, and perhaps the series, I believe its this one, and with a solid SP and hot bats, I like the price as well. Manny brings his playoff resume with him and the most HR's in MLB history at 24.

2) OCA SERIES -140

-'m a West Coast guy, but I'm not near as biased as most Sawks fans. The Angels were built for the playoffs, and Scoscia will have his boys ready tonight. Most speak of Lackey's struggles against the Bo-Sox but they were a different team then and so are the Halo's.

The additions of Mark T. and Torii Hunter have made this team Vegas' favorite to win it all, and for good reason. Scoscia stresses solid pitching and good defense and the Angels have answered the call at every turn. Lackey won the W.S. back in '02, and he relishes the chance to get back, a gamer in all respects. Best believe he knows his numbers against the Sawks and will look to right his wrongs at the Big A tonight. In my opinion, and I am no fan of the Angels is this; its their World Series to lose this year.

-OCA hitting lefties at a .282 clip at home this season and .300 in their last ten.

Boston just doesn't have that championship feel to it this year. Manny is gone, J.D. and Lowell are hurt, and their pitching staff is not the same.

-Lester in two starts at Anaheim has gone 8.1 IP 14 H and 8 ER, not stellar. Boston has struggled historically on the West Coast and this year has been even worse. Bo-Sox 0-8 this year against the Angels.

The Angels know the importance of this first game in a five-game series, they will not play flat tonight, despite the long wait.

MobJustice says:
10/01/08 01:37PM

Well, 4 and 5 weren't really misconceptions but you get the point.

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 01:38PM

Avery's a HUGE loss..but Jagr kinda reminds of Bertuzzi..Only moments of brilliance and never at the right time..If the Rangers can replace Jagr with someone who goes 24/7,there maynot be that much of a loss here at all.Yeah I like the Luongo thing..this guy hates losing SO MUCH , he starts fights in the dressing room..My kinda captain..

Such a good crop of rookies everywhere this year that have been brought along Properly...GOOD RIDDANCE Naslund and Morrison (and Jagr)

king_of_diamond says:
10/01/08 01:38PM

don't have much time to post analysis or reply to people. i left work early, off to the lot to tailgate, and then to gm 1 between the phils and brewers. here's what i'm rolling with today.

phils RL - hamels goes 7 strong with 1 run allowed. gallardo gives up 3 before he hands it over to the bullpen. i expect some late inning runs in this one, but the phils RL at even money is my play.

also taking the phils / brewers under 4.5 in the first 5 innings. as i said, hamels gives up 1. the phils have not seen gallardo all year and that should help him get through the lineup the first time around without much difficulty.

cubs ML - dempster at home. cubs win this series in 4 games. i can't wait to hammer the cubs in game 3 with harden on the mound vs. kuroda in LA.

red sox ML - the angels were my world series pick all season long, but i think the sox win this series. i like lester going in game 1 and dice k in game 2 over santana. the sox should at least split in cali. then back to fenway for 2. this is a bad spot for the angels.

GL all.....i'm off to get drunk and raise some hell at citizen's bank park!

isles19404ever says:
10/01/08 01:39PM

Stump, early info says UNDER phillies, and LA +140....stay tuned will have both in by 1pm. Don't have anything on the angels tonite, but you gotta love em at home with the bosox somewhat banged up (drew and lowell). As far as the pitching matchup, LAckey will not overpower anyone, but has good stuuf and post season experience. Mike Scocia is the best manager in the al in my opinion and they are a complete team(pitching, fundementals).Thanks for the cred, as i said MLB and NHL are where i turn the $$$$. You will not see me with any more bombs on NFL or CFA (have lost my behind on both since posting here).

MobJustice says:
10/01/08 01:39PM

Mega - I agree with you that if the Angels can get over the hump against the Sox then they win it all.

isles19404ever says:
10/01/08 01:44PM

Todd Bertuzzi and Roberto Luongo, 2 of Mike Milbury's picks during his tenure as Isles gm. luongo has grown a pair of balls since his days on the Island. probably his new bride. he was very mellow then, also very young...

isles19404ever says:
10/01/08 01:49PM

Here we go:

Phillies 8.5 under 7 units

Dodgers +145 7 units

Stump, fire away $$$$....

stumpmaker says:
10/01/08 02:08PM

Isles..

like the Phils under pick..

LAD pick is testy..(like my Brewers pike) .. but both could win..If your LAD pick wins then so will mine..Gotta go right now..have a nap today so that we can talk later..

GL to all today

benhogan76 says:
10/01/08 02:14PM

Stump, Jagr giving it only 60 to 75% was still better then the majority of guys in the NHL. When he was interested he was unstopable, and I am not a fan of him. Bertuzzi could never get over the Moore thing and it is too bad because he was a force before hand.

benhogan76 says:
10/01/08 02:16PM

Where is Vancouvers offense going to come from? Louongo is going to have to be best in the league for them to even make playoffs I think. The west is to stack.

benhogan76 says:
10/01/08 02:18PM

Isles Milbury has traded away an allstar team during his ugly time on the island. He reminds me alot of Matt Millen had to have something on owners to do such an awful job for so long and stick around.

doobiebrother says:
10/01/08 02:35PM

Phillies -1.5 (even) - Brewers have scored 3< in L7 at Citizens Bank, and Phils have scored 6> in 8 of 10 H vs. Brewers, winning 8 of L9. Milwaukee will send 7 righties to the plate vs. Hamels, who’s a “backward” lefty, dominating righties (.215/.356). He’s also a 9th hitter, batting .269 in 52 AB vs. R TY.

Red Sox/Angels Over 8.5 (even) – Lackey 4.29 at H TY, 5.19 L4 H vs. Bosox, 26 HRs allowed, and a bum (4.99) since All Star break. Lester 4.09 A TY and 19.2 IP, 33 H, 7.78 lifetime vs. LAA (8.88 A). He has wide L/R gap (.217/.273) and will see 8 R today.

2 Phils -1.5

2 Bosox/Angels Over (pending)

Note- Will wait for lineup on Boston/LA game, and will NOT play the over if Drew starts. He’s a total liability at the plate, batting just .217 in his L25 games (83 AB) and only 3 HR in L127 AB, including 0 in L57.

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