Three weeks into the NFL season and the dogs are already panting. Favorites are covering at a ridiculous 75 percent clip, with the numbers just about the same at home and on the road.
Into the fray step the Cowboys and Redskins, with Dallas a healthy 11- to 12-point favorite in an NFC East game. The number opened at 10 and was quickly driven up to 11 in most books. If you like Dallas you can find a book to lay only 10.5; Washington gets as many as 12 in one spot. But for the most part the line has settled at 11.
If you set aside the fact that this is a division game, is there any evidence that the Skins are anything more than an average team that will have trouble hanging within two touchdowns of Dallas?
Well, no.
Nothing much on the Washington spreadsheet jumps out and grabs you. Nine-point loss to Giants in opener, five-point win over New Orleans and seven-point victory over Arizona. The Redskins are so average they could change their nickname to the Bureaucratic Actuaries, be accurate and make large numbers of Native Americans happy in the process.
One big positive is that QB Jason Campbell has yet to throw a pick, and with Dallas’s stop-the-run-at-all-costs defense Campbell might be able to do some damage. Campbell has quality receivers in Santana Moss, who has a touchdown in each game this season and had a monster 164-yard game against the Saints; and Antwaan Randel El, another quality wideout who can also cause damage throwing the ball.
Running back Clinton Portis may be in for a difficult four quarters. He’s got recurring neck problems that have limited him to less than four yards a carry, and Dallas’ front seven is probably not what he wants to see at this point, even if Cowboy nose tackle Tank Johnson will be playing at less than 100 percent, if at all. Still, last word is that Portis expects to play. Six-time Pro Bowl DE Jason Taylor is out.
If nothing else, the Skins deserve props for the way they pulled themselves off the mat after Sean Taylor was murdered in the middle of last season. Taylor was gunned down at his home eight days after Washington lost at Dallas by five. The Skins rallied late in the season, though, winning their last four, including a 27-6 job over Dallas in the finale.
But isn’t this game really all about the Cowboys? As Barack Obama would say: “This is our moment; this is our time.”
Peter Childs agrees that Boys are back in town.
“The Cowboys have been on national TV all three weeks of the season,” says Childs, an oddsmaker at belmont.com. “They played at Cleveland on Fox, two weeks ago that exciting Monday Night game vs. the Eagles and last week blew out a good Packers team on Sunday night.”
Childs says the high profile that the Cowboys wear translates into action. “The Cowboys are by far the biggest public team in the NFL and I figure the public will back them once again.” Washington, says Childs, is a decent team with a low profile, and that gives the +11 number some value.
Skins backers might want to hold off, because as Childs points out, 95 percent of the action will come down on Sunday, and heavy Dallas money could drive the number up even higher.
Dallas’s transformation has been stunning. Two years ago the Boys had that most toxic combination imaginable – the worst offensive line in the league trying to protect Drew Bledsoe. Now the O line is solid, the D line is dominant, Tony Romo is surrounded by stars on and off the field, and the way the money is rolling in Jerry Jones can easily afford another facelift.
Dallas is on a pace to score 544 points this year. That’s still a field goal a game short of the ridiculous record number the Patriots put up last year, but how many teams are going to beat the Cowboys when they score 32 a game? After Washington the Cowboys have Cincinnati, Arizona and St. Louis. (As an aside, the Giants don’t have a killer schedule in October, either, and that Nov. 2 Dallas/NYG battle looks like the game of the season.)
So are there any icebergs confronting the Cowboys in this one?
Well, for one, Wade Philips would consider it a personal favor if Tony Romo could take better care of the ball. Romo has two interceptions and a fumble inside the red zone, and that kind of stuff can bite you in the behind before too long.
Moss always seems to play well against the Cowboys, who are mindful that the Eagles went over the top against them a few times two weeks ago. But Washington coach Jim Zorn has shown so far that he likes slants and quick outs more than going deep, so Moss may be less of a factor than Dallas fears.
All in all, a decent matchup in a division that looks like the best in the business this season.