Check out more from Jacob Wheatley-Schaller at his sports betting blog, Vegas Watch.
The single most important aspect of sports wagering is gauging public perception, and comparing it to reality. If you find a team that's widely overrated, there's a good chance that there will be some value in betting against them. The easy part of this is figuring out the public perception; just watch ESPN, or listen to your buddies at work talk about their picks to win it all.
The more difficult part is figuring out the real truth. For MLB, we've found that Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA is the best measure of this; in the NFL, Pro Football Prospectus is very accurate. So, with the NFL season quickly approaching, I've been thinking about quantifying both "public perception" and "reality", and seeing how that plays out on the field.
Earlier this week, I did just that over at my blog, and ended up with some very interesting results. Teams that were highly thought of by the preseason ESPN.com power rankings, but had low win projections in Pro Football Prospectus, did very poorly against the spread, especially in the first four weeks. The opposite was true for teams about which PFP thought much more highly than ESPN. With that in mind, today I thought I’d take a look at one team that is getting more preseason love than they probably deserve.
Cleveland
ESPN.com Power Rankings: 10th in NFL
PFP Win Projection: 6.3 wins
The Browns had a great year in 2007, with Derek Anderson leading them to a surprising 10-6 record. The offseason additions of LT Joe Thomas (#3 overall) and LG Eric Steinbach (FA from Bengals) solidified the offensive line, which went from second worst in the league to third best, according to one of PFP’s metrics. Unfortunately, Cleveland looks to be due for some regression, as they were blessed with great health last year. Four of their five starting offensive lineman played all sixteen games, which is something unlikely to be repeated—in fact, Ryan Tucker broke his hip in May, and may not be available for the opener. Offensive standouts Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow both struggled with injuries in ’05 and ’06, but were completely healthy in ’07. Finally, Jamal Lewis had a great year last year, but the regression of the linemen (who were the main reason for his success last year), combined with his age and career workload, will likely cause his numbers to drop. The additions of tackles Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams should lead to an improved defense, but a drop in offensive production will probably be the reason the Browns don’t live up to some lofty expectations.