Hot lines: Friday's best MLB bets

By COVERS.com STAFF | August 8, 2008 | 60 comments
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Boston at Chicago White Sox (-105, 9)

At 26-33, Boston isn’t exactly the scariest road team in the major leagues, but Chicago might be as good a place as any for bettors to take that sweet moneyline on the BoSox. Over the last two seasons, the Red Sox are 6-1 at U.S. Cellular Field.

It also favors the Red Sox that there will be two lefties (Jon Lester and Mark Buehrle) starting today’s game. Boston is hitting .290 against left-handers, while Chicago is at just .250. Lester doesn’t have much of a history against the White Sox, but Buehrle has struggled mightily against Boston, losing five of his last six outings against them.

Pick: Red Sox

Washington at Milwaukee (-310, 8)

Ah, what the hell. Everybody knows that anything can happen in baseball, so when you see a price like this sometimes it’s worth taking a chance on the underdog. Especially when that underdog is a hot team going up against a not-so-hot team. Regardless of their overall records, the Nationals have won six of their last seven games and they’re hitting .292 over their last 10. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 4-6 over their last 10 and have been dealing with all kinds of internal conflict. Hey, it could happen!

Pick: Nationals


 

60 comments
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PimpNation says:
08/08/08 10:41AM

Apologies to all from the Pimp Nation:

1. Duchsy gives up 4 runs in 1 inning on 3 balls that do not get out of the infield and

2. Braves & Dback Bullpens melt dow for 8 runs in the 8th to lose by a 1/2.

The Ho's had a long night last night and we will try and bounce back today, but I must admit, our confidence took quite a hit.

Looking for the Forum to maybe pick me up today after an 8 day Hot Streak.

BTW-Whipping Post comes through with a "weather system" Winner in a DOME???!!! Who cares, it won and my loser melts down late.

GL to all, back later with hopefully a bounce back W.

Pimp

sandbar11 says:
08/08/08 11:03AM

cubs today lily 2-0 last 2, cards 5-13 laST 18 in the windy city

Slimdaddy2004 says:
08/08/08 11:25AM

Missed my freaky parlay yesterday, but I still made .7 units yesterday to put me up 4.2 units on week.

I will be fading one of the hot picks. Be back later with the plays.

kylew10 says:
08/08/08 11:32AM

Pimp-

Don't worry about that 8th inning 8 run bull crap last night, it happens. Great work on the other games, every one can get over a bad break. Keep up the good work

thunderwriter says:
08/08/08 11:41AM

It's all right, pimp. Those things happen. I lost the Saints-Cardinals over-under by a point. Two turnovers in the redzone didn't help me. I can't believe I lost two games on walk-off homers! I made a modest profit still with Houston winning and going over on single and parlay bets.

I am already locked in on Milwaukee and C.C. on the runs line. No value at all on the ML. I am (stupidly) looking at Baltimore on the runs line.

Here are some trends courtesy of our covers.com friends (not sure if it means much):

Over is 8-0-1 in STL last 9 road games.

Over is 8-0 in SEA last 8 games following a win.

Under is 7-0 in OAK last 7 vs. American League Central.

Under is 7-0 in Mets' Perez's last 7 starts overall.

Under is 7-0 in Mets' Perez's last 7 on grass.

GL

sandbar11 says:
08/08/08 11:49AM

also the cubs-cards will go over 8.5. both teams hitting well. a nice parlay is cubs and the over

thunderwriter says:
08/08/08 12:05PM

If anybody is looking for info on tonight's preseason football, there is a forum on covers.com about the games. I don't know if they are any good (my first time seeing it), you might want to go check it out.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=94 0330

ngjingji says:
08/08/08 12:39PM

brewers RL.....dodgers....yanks(got it at plus 140)

ngjingji says:
08/08/08 12:40PM

also take viks in the preseason ....trust me

alexis980 says:
08/08/08 01:52PM

i will make a small play with the cubs and the under today both pitchers can throw a good game againts them oponets, so let me know you opinions

indrep says:
08/08/08 01:54PM

Pimp - You never need to apologize. We all lose games. I know it's funny but your analysis sometimes can be right on the money yet it doesn't pan out. I've been there and will be again.

Play small when you get into those lukewarm periods.

PODs

**Minnesota Twins -129 over KC. The powerful lefties on the twins should get to Davies.

**Atl/DBacks under 9 - Campillo/Davis should both hurl some good games tonight.

*Angels -125 - Who is afraid of the big bad Yanks. Not me!!!

*Sox/Sox under 9 - Two very good pitchers should keep the hitters off balance.

NFL

10 pt tease -120

Eagles +11

Seahawks +13

49ers +13

This is something that has been successful for me for years in PRE SEASON only. Tease the dogs. Keep in mind these games are nothing more then scrimmages and normally there are no blowouts. I never do this in the regular season but pre-season is different

jp06318 says:
08/08/08 01:55PM

Liking the Phils/ Buccos Under at 9.5 -- Both pitchers pitching very well as of late, phillies bats are cold, and LaRoche is on the 15 day DL list.

Wildcard is Blanton has never faced Pirates.

Don't know who the ump is ths point yet either.

A side note, Pirates seem to have good ML value at +160.

king_of_diamond says:
08/08/08 01:59PM

two plays so far and i'll be back with more.

i like the brewers and rays. might play both on the RL and might paraly both together on the ML.

BREWERS - i don't see any reason not to lay the RL in this situation with sabathia on the mound. the nationals have been playing well, but they played a double header yesterday in colorado and then had to travel to milwaukee for today's game. can they get up for this one? i highly doubt it. the brewers are 5-1 when they're a -200 favorite or more. lay the RL.

RAYS - you have to like the rays in this spot. the juice is too high for my liking, so the RL is a definite possibility. silva is absoulte garbage and is arguably the worst pitcher in the league (even worse than zito at this point). the rays are 49-30 vs. RH starters. shields pitches much better at home than on the road which is a bit of a concern, but he has a 1.57 ERA in three career starts against the mariners and went eight innings both times he's pitched in seattle. let's just hope they can pitch around, or get out, r. ibanez. he's been smoking hot this week, but is 0-for-8 vs. shields in his career. last night's loss can be attributed to them having to fly cross country after a dramatic win on wednesday night. with the time change not as big of a factor tonight, i think the rays get back on track and take care of the mariners.

g'luck!!!

king_of_diamond says:
08/08/08 02:00PM

there's great value in the pirates today. do not take the phils. if you take a side in that game it should be the pirates.

Riverboy says:
08/08/08 02:05PM

Pimpnation--I feel your pain. I too had the under in that game--I guess we always remeber these ones where we getted F'd but at least I had the pleasure of winningh a TBay RL with a 3 run walk off earlier this week.

Keep up the fight and as KOD says "pull back when in periods of bad streak", then kill em when you're hot. Most times money management is as important if not more important than the picks.

I personally am ready to start looking for nights when there are 3 games of -200 or more and then take the dogs, figuring 1 of 3 equals breakeven and 2 or 3 of 3 = big $$

Riverboy says:
08/08/08 02:08PM

KOD--liking your RL plays today to minimize juice in games that should have sufficient spread.

RL has been working out well lately with either a cover or outright loss and minimization of juice. Exception was that Angels game where KRod gave up 4 in the ninth.

MrX says:
08/08/08 02:13PM

Whats up guys ! Had a very bad 1st day back sense i been gone for acouple of months.

Hoping to get back on track tonight here are my plays for tonight

MLB

1.PIRATES + 154

2.YANKEES + 115

NFL

1.PITTSBURGH- EVEN -110

2.MINNESOTA -3

X

bigred_td3 says:
08/08/08 02:25PM

Those of you on the cubbies, be careful today. I'm not saying bet the cardinals and i'm not betting them either, bc i dont' like to bet on my team. But I just think with Looper on the hill they could easily win this game. Looper pitches better on the road and has pitched well against the cubs. I could see Looper keeping the cubs in check as he forces a lot of ground balls, but with the wind blowing out and the cards hitting the way they have been i see them winning this game. Being in a playoff race, they know they need to win this first game. GL to all.

Riverboy says:
08/08/08 02:27PM

taking a value dog parlay on a lark: 3 way with Pitt, Wash, Sea pays 24:1 This play covers me in the case of a total hosing on my RL plays below.

POD is Rsox with Lester

Also liking RL with CC and RL on Tbay

Why are people liking Vikings in NFL?

Riverboy says:
08/08/08 02:28PM

What is the exact current wind situation at Wrigley?

vegasgurumike says:
08/08/08 02:30PM

beware milw+++++cards over cubs have feeling on this 1+++++take houston + 125 against cinn lmao cinn looks like they are quitters gl all

vegasgurumike says:
08/08/08 02:33PM

wrigley wind in from rf 5-15

henrylazarde says:
08/08/08 02:42PM

Each and everyone of the following games, and a 8-team parlay (w/o TB):

Houston

Mets under 8.5

Atlanta and under 9

Dodgers

Minnesota and over 9

Tampa Bay -1.5

T.G.I. Friday...

henrylazarde says:
08/08/08 02:43PM

*7-team parlay...

knanen says:
08/08/08 02:44PM

KOD

Sox/Sox game, the over has gone 7-0 in the last head-to-head meetings. Thinking over for the total play??? The Rays will need to put a 3-9 record in the last 12 games when playing in Seattle and yesterday game behind them if they want to win this series.Like you say, Shields is not so good on the road then you much be careful with this game King. BOL

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