Ted Sevransky is Covers Experts handicapper. Check out his picks and articles here.
Over the course of the next six weeks, I’ll be releasing NFL team previews on a consistent basis here at Covers.com, spotlighting teams that I expect to be under or over valued heading into the upcoming season. I’ll start my previews in the NFC West, where Scott Linehan’s squad is coming off a dismal 3-13 season, looking for a major bounceback in 2008.
Overview.
The Rams haven’t enjoyed a winning season since 2003, but last year was a clear step down for a franchise that has fallen on hard times. 2007 was an injury plagued disaster from start to finish, with a dozen players finishing the season on injured reserve. The offensive line was particularly hard hit by the injury bug, with three starters basically missing the entire season.
Scott Linehan is most assuredly on the hot seat in his third season at the helm. Linehan did what most coaches on the hot seat do in the offseason – he threw his assistants under the bus. The Rams will have six new assistant coaches this year, including new offensive coordinator Al Saunders, who enjoyed success in previous stints at Kansas City and Washington. Saunders has an extensive playbook – this is not an easy offense to learn, nor to execute, and we can expect some growing pains from the Rams early in the season.
Offense
Quarterback Marc Bulger signed a $65 million contract before the start of the ’07 campaign. Battered and bruised operating behind that injury devastated offensive line, Bulger finished the season with a QB rating of 70.3. To put that number in perspective, Tom Brady had a QB rating of 117.2. Bulger ranked just behind Buffalo rookie QB Trent Edwards, and just ahead of Kansas City rookie QB Brodie Croyle. For $65 million, the Rams certainly didn’t get a good return on their investment last year.
The Rams have had great skill position talent for the better part of the last decade. That is no longer the case. Running back Stephen Jackson is coming off an injury plagued season of his own, in which he scored only five rushing touchdowns. Wide receiver Tory Holt, now 32 years old, has recurring knee problems that are likely to limit his effectiveness for the rest of his NFL career. On the other side from Holt, the Rams have nothing but question marks. The underachieving Drew Bennett and second round draft choice Donnie Avery out of Houston will be expected to fill in Issac Bruce’s big shoes, both on the field and in the locker room, something I wouldn’t count on them being able to do.
The biggest single issue for the Rams this year is their offensive line. All the guys that were hurt last year are coming back, including pro bowl caliber left tackle Orlando Pace. Certainly, from a depth perspective, this OL is head and shoulders ahead of where they were last year. But with a new offense and no continuity whatsoever from last year to this year in terms of personnel, this offensive line has to be considered a major question mark.
Defense
The Rams finished 21st in the NFL in total yardage allowed defensively last season and 31st in points allowed. The defense finished with a respectable 27 takeaways, but the team still finished -10 in turnover margin, ranked 28th in the NFL in that key statistical category. Coordinator Jim Haslett prides himself on an aggressive approach, but the Rams personnel is ill suited for his style. And frankly, dating back to his tenure with New Orleans, Haslett hasn’t put together a top notch defense this decade, another coach barely hanging on to his job.
There’s a little to like about the 2008 Rams defense, most notably on the defensive line. Last year’s #1 pick Adam Carriker and this year’s #1, Chris Long out of Virginia, make an excellent inside/outside duo on what had been a very porous unit. But the Rams desperately need a rebound season from former pass rushing force Leonard Little, who notched only one sack last year.
The back seven defensively is mediocre at best. Yes, linebacker Will Witherspoon had a breakout season in ’07, but that doesn’t guarantee similar results in ’08. The secondary lacks a ballhawking cornerback or a playmaking safety. To be generous, I’d give the Rams linebackers, cornerbacks and safeties a ‘C’ grade heading into the season if everyone stays healthy and performs to expectations.
I do like the pickup of kicker Josh Brown in free agency from divisional rival Seattle. Free agent pickup Jacob Bell from Tennessee should provide depth for the offensive line and should end up as a starting guard. That’s about it for impact free agent acquisitions; Long and Avery are the only two rookies likely to see extensive playing time. In other words, this year’s roster looks a lot like last year’s roster, minus all the injuries.
Schedule
St Louis has a positively brutal schedule to open up the season, terrible news for any head coach on the hot seat, trying desperately to keep his veterans playing hard. The Rams play all four NFC East teams in the first half of the season (Giants, Cowboys, Eagles and Redskins, one of the toughest divisions in football), along with the Seahawks, Bills and Patriots. They’ll be underdogs in six of their first seven games, so barring an upset, we’re looking at a 1-6 start, maybe 2-5. That could be all it takes to send this team down the tubes once again, sealing Linehan’s fate and sending him back to a coordinator job.
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