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Novak Djokovic (+420) - Rafael Nadal (-380)
I think I mentioned yesterday to someone, that unless someone takes him out literally, I just don't see how Nadal can possibly lose a match here in Paris.
On his route to the semis he has set a new record for the fewest games games ever conceded by a player. Borg held the record at 26, Nadal has lost only 25. He disposed Almagro with such ease, the two should have skipped the match and gone for a picnic at Parc du Champ de Mars. At least Almagro would have had some fun that way.
In fact Almagro himself was shocked at how good Nadal was. He said something along the lines of "...his retreival ability is absolutely amazing. What do you have to do to hit a winner past him? He forces you to go for the lines in every single shot, and unless you're a programmed computer you just can't do that."
However, I am not going to undermine Djokovic here. He is a fighter but more importantly he wants to prove to the tennis world that he deserves to be in the top three and that there's not much separating him, Nadal and Federer.
He has lost to Nadal four straight times on clay. They met in this very venue last year and Nadal won in straight sets. Nevertheless, I believe the Djoker is a different play now. He is a grand slam winner, he has beaten Nadal very very comfortably on hard court, and he got pretty close to winning at Masters Series in Hamburg last month (clay).
Very hard to go past Nadal here, but I don't think he'll win in straight sets. Therefore over 36.6 games total at +100 is my selection tonight.
Gael Monfils (+800) - Roger Federer (-1000)
What a remarkable run the young Frenchman has had! Coming back from injury and having, pretty much no wins in his pocket and now here he stands amongst the last four in the French Open.
Keep in mind however, that in the last round he beat a down and out, exhausted David Ferrer. The Fedexpress is no Ferrer. Apart from the slow start in that first set against Gonzalez, Federer has never looked in doubt so far. When he gets on a roll, he is virtually impossible to contain.
Monfils will be happy with his achievement so far and his consolation to himself will be: "Hey, at least I lost in the semis to the best player in the world". They met in Monaco last month and Federer never allowed the Frenchman to get in the match. We'll see the same scenario here. Take Federer -7 points (-120).