Aussieguy's French Open picks: Men's semifinals

Aussieguy is one of the Covers.com posting forum's most respected tennis cappers. To check out his Covers Space, click here.
 
Novak Djokovic (+420) - Rafael Nadal (-380)
I think I mentioned yesterday to someone, that unless someone takes him out literally, I just don't see how Nadal can possibly lose a match here in Paris.
 
On his route to the semis he has set a new record for the fewest games games ever conceded by a player. Borg held the record at 26, Nadal has lost only 25. He disposed Almagro with such ease, the two should have skipped the match and gone for a picnic at Parc du Champ de Mars. At least Almagro would have had some fun that way.
 
In fact Almagro himself was shocked at how good Nadal was. He said something along the lines of "...his retreival ability is absolutely amazing. What do you have to do to hit a winner past him? He forces you to go for the lines in every single shot, and unless you're a programmed computer you just can't do that."
 
However, I am not going to undermine Djokovic here. He is a fighter but more importantly he wants to prove to the tennis world that he deserves to be in the top three and that there's not much separating him, Nadal and Federer.
 
He has lost to Nadal four straight times on clay. They met in this very venue last year and Nadal won in straight sets. Nevertheless, I believe the Djoker is a different play now. He is a grand slam winner, he has beaten Nadal very very comfortably on hard court, and he got pretty close to winning at Masters Series in Hamburg last month (clay).
 
Very hard to go past Nadal here, but I don't think he'll win in straight sets. Therefore over 36.6 games total at +100 is my selection tonight.
 
Gael Monfils (+800) - Roger Federer (-1000)
What a remarkable run the young Frenchman has had! Coming back from injury and having, pretty much no wins in his pocket and now here he stands amongst the last four in the French Open.
 
Keep in mind however, that in the last round he beat a down and out, exhausted David Ferrer. The Fedexpress is no Ferrer. Apart from the slow start in that first set against Gonzalez, Federer has never looked in doubt so far. When he gets on a roll, he is virtually impossible to contain.
 
Monfils will be happy with his achievement so far and his consolation to himself will be: "Hey, at least I lost in the semis to the best player in the world". They met in Monaco last month and Federer never allowed the Frenchman to get in the match. We'll see the same scenario here.  Take Federer -7 points (-120).

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Posted by cnhres
6 years ago

im looking at playing ivanovic to win 2-1 its at 5-2
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Posted by nccashman
6 years ago

Not sure cashman, check the book's rules. I hit on both Nadal and Roger ML's. Expensive but fattened the bankroll. Aussie who do you think wins the women's tomorrow? I am leaning Ivanovic.
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Posted by MLC
6 years ago

i got rog at 3-1 lost on nad 3-1... came out ahead though
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Posted by cashman
6 years ago

Roger won by 7 games, 24 -17 and I took aussie's play of -7 -125...shouldn't it be a push at worst. my book marked it as a loss?????
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Posted by cnhres
6 years ago

Thank you roger for winning in 4 sets!!!! awesome i love it!!!!!!
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Posted by cnhres
6 years ago

awesome 2nd set monfils!!! i hope fed puts him away now!!
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Posted by cnhres
6 years ago

nadal is just unreal here at the french open!!! I hope fed just losses one set lol. theres no one i can nadal losing he is amazing.
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Posted by cnhres
6 years ago

i think a nice bet is roger to win in four sets got it at 5-2. good luck and roger just win in 4 please
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Posted by JHBuff25
6 years ago

After watching the Monfils d. Ferrer match I think I realized what Monfils' secret really is. I've heard expansive quotes attributed to some of his better (tomorrow's) opponent stating he's got the best athleticism in the return game. While this is not wholly untrue what he really has is showmanship. In the Ferrer match he was pulling this lame duck routine trying to lull Ferrer into easing off. It worked brilliantly. Ferrer is at his best when he's facing an attacking opponent. Monfils played truly limp-wristed tennis in that match. Kind of embarrassing for Ferrer to go out like that. I can't see the strategy working against The Fed. While The Fed does have the most powerful popeye forearm I've ever seen and can hit winners from any off-ballance over-reaching angle his real strength is in his strategy. He reads the player's strengths and proceeds to rob him of them. Certain opponents are simply too predictable for him to go down to them. Is Monfils one of them? It would certainly appear so. 3-0matches and 6-0 sets for Fed in their meetings seems to spell the end of the Frenchman's run in the mud. Rafa is the Rolland Garros Juggernaut. He will not be denied another championship here. I'm all over the spaniard in this one.
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Posted by HeadOverHeart
6 years ago

Good luck!
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Top Response

Posted by HeadOverHeart
6 years ago

"Good luck!"