NBA Finals: Series preview and pick

By ASHTON GREWAL | June 1, 2008 | 84 comments
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Shhhhhhhh... quiet.

If you listen very carefully you can still hear the echo of a forceful high five or the wind cutting after numerous energetic fist pumps.

Yes, that’s David Stern acting like an eight-year-old after learning school has been cancelled because of snow.

The Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers have the most entrenched rivalry in the history of the NBA. Paul Pierce against Kobe Bryant is just the latest in the long list of superstar players on opposite coasts going head-to-head.

Let’s get to the breakdown of this series and ultimately how it should play out. Oddsmakers have the Lakers set as -200 favorites.

Frontcourt:

The Celtics appear to have the edge here since they boast two perennial All-Stars in Pierce and Kevin Garnett. The two are accompanied by the improving, but still inexperienced, Kendrick Perkins.

Boston’s defense has been the foundation of its success all season. Garnett (the league’s Defensive Player of the Year) instilled a responsibility on the other end of the floor that infected his teammates.

The Lakers present some serious troubles for Boston. Perkins is not mobile enough to cover Los Angeles’ new pivot Pau Gasol. The Spaniard has adjusted almost seamlessly to the Lakers’ Triangle Offense.

Gasol’s quick feet and face-up game will present huge challenges for Perkins. Look for Celtics’ coach Doc Rivers to rely more heavily on veteran P.J. Brown.

Garnett should make life miserable for Odom on the offense end but Odom is no slouch defender either. Vladimir Radmanovic starts at small forward but Bryant will be guarding Pierce in late-game situations.

Edge: Boston

Backcourt:

Gasol gets a lot of credit for the Lakers’ resurgence to the league’s elite but the return of Derek Fisher should not be discounted. Bryant trusts Fisher more than any other of his teammates after already going through battles with the cagey vet.

Fisher provides leadership, solid defense and effective shooting from the perimeter to keep defenses honest – something his opponent is still struggling to do.

Rajon Rondo, the Celtics second-year point guard, has made tremendous strides in his game since leaving Kentucky, however, he still lacks a jump shot to complete his skill set.

Too often Rondo’s defender is able to roam and double team frequently because of Rondo’s limited offensive game. This puts the C’s in a bind because he is still their best ball handler and distributor. Sam Cassell has proved to be a shell of his former clutch self and a poor fit for a team with a glut of superstars.

Ray Allen’s shooting slump nearly pushed the Cleveland Cavaliers into the Eastern Conference Finals rather than Boston. If Allen thought the Cavs’ defensive game plan was disruptive, wait until he has to try shooting over Bryant every other night.

Edge: Los Angeles

Bench:

After the Celtics traded for Garnett last summer, many hoop heads questioned how Danny Ainge could fill out the roster with so much of the team’s cap dedicated to the Big Three. Ainge did a heck of a job putting together a cheap cast of ballers.

I’d almost say Boston’s bench is even to the deep Lakers, but coach Doc Rivers’ inability to find a consistency with playing time gives the advantage to Los Angeles. Too frequently players on the Celtics bench are left scratching their heads because of a day-to-day philosophy regarding the team’s rotation.

If Rivers could just settle on eight or nine men to play each and every game I’d feel much more confident in Boston’s bench being able to equal the success of the Lakers. But Rivers’ sporadic behavior scares the bejesus out of me.

What to bet on:

Although both sides have an abundance of firepower, I’d say the under is the better total play in this series. Phil Jackson has always placed a premium on defensive effort and the only thing the Celtics have done with consistency this postseason is play suffocating defense.

Prediction:

More weaknesses than strengths were exposed during Boston’s playoff run. The regular season juggernauts struggled to score and close out teams in pivotal fourth quarter situations. At the same time the experience of going through two game sevens along the way has only helped the club’s cohesiveness.

The Lakers ran through what was supposed to be an extremely tough Western Conference. Bryant, the league’s MVP, seems focused to prove he can win one without the help of the Shaq Diesel.

The Celtics have the home-court advantage but that doesn’t help as much in the Finals 2-3-2 format.

Lakers in six games.

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84 comments
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bej0101
bej0101 says:
06/01/08 10:34AM

sounds about right..really like the unders on a game by game basis..

shirazzi
shirazzi says:
06/01/08 01:13PM

lakers in 5

GoG
GoG says:
06/01/08 01:44PM

very good column... i give Covers sh!t for all their crappy write-ups so i'll give props here for a good one... not sure i am ready to agree on the final outcome yet, but all of the major points he hit on were addressed accurately and objectively, and my early prediction did have Lakers in 6 or 7...

even the point about homecourt being less of an edge in this format is an important one... well done!

also agree on the under... although it does concern me that Pierce, Garnett, Bryant and Gasol all have favorable matchups offensively...

shirazzi... this series will definitely make it back to Boston for game 6... LA won't win all 3 home games...

shirazzi
shirazzi says:
06/01/08 03:54PM

yeah, because BOSTON has been so dominant on the road in the playoffs! hah?

blaccsteel
blaccsteel says:
06/01/08 04:05PM

Lakers in 6!

ForProfit
ForProfit says:
06/01/08 08:22PM

I can hear Randy Newman singing as dancing barry trips and falls...

Celts in Seven.

Please get Powe in rotation!

GoG
GoG says:
06/01/08 09:42PM

Shirazzi... i have followed your picks... you're awful!

Boson went 2-1 in the Palace... on the road...

LA won't win all 3 at home... when are you gonna pull your head out of your behind and start listening to me? i can only be right every friggin time...

MRSARATOGA
MRSARATOGA says:
06/01/08 10:16PM

Bring on Nicholson! Celtics take the series. Lakers can't get around the fact they have Farmar and Walton and Sasha can only hit the 3. Celts had to prepare for Joe Johnson and Lebron and will do the same for Kobe. Rondo will show why he is one of the top gurads in the league. There is no Rip, Stuckey or Billups on the Lakers to bother Rondo and an aged Fisher is not a concern. Lakers had no real challenge getting to the finals. Celts are battle tested and a nice five day rest to get ready.

theclaw
theclaw says:
06/01/08 10:36PM

It seems many are still judging Boston by they're poor performances and 0-6 road record in 7 game series vs Hawks and Cavs, this is "Fools Gold".

The Best Teams and Best Players want to play on a big stage vs strong competition, this is how they measure they're selves and they bring they're A Game.

The Best Teams don't always bring they're A Games vs lesser teams, if Boston just shows up they'll beat Atlanta sitting on the bus, same with Cavs.

When Boston was put on a big stage (Eastern Conference Finals with a trip to NBA Finals on the line) vs one of best teams in the league, how'd they perfrorm ???

They handled the Piston without a problem and went 2-1 on the road.

This is a much more accurate picture of Boston.

And by the way, Detroit is better than any team LA beat.

NEVER, EVER, EVER UNDERESTIMATE THE VALUE OF A TEAMS PERFORMANCE ON A BIG STAGE VS OTHER STRONG TEAMS.

The Right Play is on Boston to Win This Series.

Keep on keep'in it on picking the Lakers people, I LOVE IT, it'll make my prediction on the C's that much sweeter when they win.

I LOVE WHEN DAMN NEAR EVERYONE'S AGAINST ME, I RARELY LOSE !!!!!

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/01/08 10:44PM

Gog,

This forum is for people to express their opinions. You have the right to disagree with people. But calling out their picks, that is hitting below the belt. Everyone has a bad streak. I guess your picks must be perfect, right? Let's see what your record is. Ever since I started posting, I went 6-0-1, so I am still undefeated. But that doesn't mean that my next pick is guarantee to be right. Anyways, I like the Lakers in this series. Does that mean that you are going to follow me in this series because my record is still perfect? Hell no, because you already made up your mind on the Celtics. Off the record, my series picks are also perfect at 8-0. I had 3 Lakers series, 2 Spurs series, 1 Utah series, 1 Cleveland series, and 1 Toronto series. But that does that mean that you have to listen to me? The bottom line is, when you have already made up your mind, nothing is going to change it regardless. The post in here are meant for the people who are still undecided.

By the way, do you know that you contradicted yourself with your own comments? I posted some of the points that covers just reiterated such as: The 2-3-2 format would benefit the Lakers, Lakers have better bench, and Lakers have better coach ect... But you called me out and said that my analyis is not objective. And yet today, you said that covers analysis is objective. You just contradicted yourself. Stupid! Why don't you just keep your opinion to yourself and stop trying to slam others.

Osirus13
Osirus13 says:
06/01/08 10:46PM

celtics in 7

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/01/08 10:54PM

I meant to say Orlando series.

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/01/08 11:05PM

The Claw,

Let's give you the benefit of the doubt that Detroit is better than Denver and Utah. But to say that Detroit is better than San Antonio, the defending champions, is outrageous!

I really beg to differ. You have to beat the champ to be the champ! Not to mention that Boston hasn't seen this big stage in over 21 years. Enough said.

GoG
GoG says:
06/01/08 11:51PM

MrPro... i didn't contradict myself... your analysis was completely subjective, his was completely objective... yes you mentioned one of the same points as him, but yours was still subjective... ("Pierce is selfish and KG is over-rated")... not complicated...

i'm trying to do only one thing... steer people towards the good handicappers and away from the bad ones (toward good analysis, away from bad analysis)...

read what theClaw posted... THAT is good analysis... not because he supports Boston... but because he isn't making the same friggin STUPID mistake that everyone else keeps making...

FACT... Detroit is better than San Antonio...

FACT... Boston has outplayed every team they have faced this year...

FACT... Boston is the best defensive team in the NBA...

FACT... Boston has not been behind in any series in the playoffs... (i.e. they have been totally dominant!)

FACT... in every game that could be considered "critical" Boston has stepped up big time (4-0 SU and ATS)

FACT... Paul Pierce is the defensive player of the playoffs so far... (this is the guy you call "selfish")... but yea, your analysis is objective MrPro...

give me a break! if you don't like being slammed then start providing some accurate (and beneficial) analysis...

by the way, i went 10-3 ATS in the conf finals and also had all 3 key road victories by LA and Boston as ML winners (all in the +200 range)... told you all there was no way in hell Boston would lose to Detroit... that they would never trail in the series... gave out Boston's game 3 road win as the Eastern Conf GOY and LA's game 4 road win as the Western Conf GOY... so don't even think you are going to call out MY performance...

GoG
GoG says:
06/01/08 11:55PM

theClaw's record speaks for itself... so does mine...

do not listen to this guy... he makes all of the key bad handicapping mistakes...

"not being there" has never stopped any team from winning a game... "not being able to win the big game" is another bullshit myth that costs a lot of people money (see Peyton Manning)... in fact, wasn't that the reason all of you idiots were on Detroit in game 6? cuz Allen and Pierce and KG can't win the big game? have no heart?

idiots! go away now...

shirazzi
shirazzi says:
06/02/08 12:35AM

hey gog

I don't have anything negative to say to you....

I hope you put all your money on the celtics to win the series.

best of luck.

shirazzi
shirazzi says:
06/02/08 12:39AM

MrPro -

I think the Lakers will win a game in Boston and end it in 5 here in LA, thats just my opinion. The 2-3-2 format isnt much of a advantage if you split at home to start the series. Rondo may be the best guard on the Celtics but I am not too impressed with his ball handling skills and he doesnt have much of a shooting range....just my opinion.

Lakers in 5

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/02/08 12:47AM

Gog,

You are mistaken dude. I have never said anything bad about the Boston Celtics. Go back and quotes me if you like. I simply stated my 7 points about why the Lakers are a better team that's all. I did not even mention anything about Pierce or Garnet. Everything is just an analysis anyways. We will wait until the outcome then one of us has to be wrong then.

Learn to read carefully first, before you try to slam me.

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/02/08 12:59AM

You make me laugh dude!

FACT.... Detroid is better than San Antonio.

They did not even play one another in the playoffs. How could this be a Fact? This is just your opinion. LMAO.......

FACT....The Lakers needed only 16 games to reach the NBA finals

FACT....The Lakers are 4-3 on the road in the playoffs.

FACT....The Celtics are 2-6 on the road in the playoffs.

FACT....The Lakers are the #1 in scoring offense and #1 in field goal percentage in the playoffs.

FACT....The Lakers are the favorite with no home court advantage.........So who is the better team here I wonder? LOL

I am not saying the the Boston will not have a shot of winning the championship. All I am saying is I like the Lakers chances better because of the 7 points I stated earlier. I am not trying to persuade you from you pick man. Don't take it personal. Either way, good luck to both of us. Like Shirazzi told me before. At least one of us will be richer when it is all over.

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/02/08 01:07AM

I meant to say they only needed 15 games to reach the finals.......

theclaw
theclaw says:
06/02/08 01:14AM

Detroit is clearly better than SA. If you've followed the Spurs this season you'd know they've been pounded on the road by the better teams in the league, a good indication of a team that's slipping.

Just because your the defending champs don't make you an automatic strong team, that makes them a strong team last season.

Your using the wrong info to make the judgement that SA is better than Detroit.

SA defense, the cornerstone of they're championships has fallen way off this season.

In regards to playing on a big stage, I don't mean they have experience playing on a big stage, what I meant was that to properly judge a team , look how they perform when placed on a big stage, this is much more important and useful info than how they played vs mediocre teams they can easily beat.

Many are judging C's on they're performance vs Hawks and Cavs, and basing they're LA pick on this, that's "Fools Gold".

GOG hit the nail sguare on the head, alot of people here simply use all the wrong info to make they're picks, some of the info is just totally useless or they're just fans with no real knowledge of sports predictions.

And he's dead on, I don't support either team, I let the facts speak for themselves, and I know what to look for, what indicators are useful and which one's are useless.

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/02/08 01:31AM

Gog,

I don't know if you want to call game 7 between the Boston vs. the Clevenland "Critical" game or not. But they did not cover the ATS dude. LOL

FACT......Lakers did not need to play any critical game in the playoffs because of 1 reason. They are that good........

I have no doubt in my mind that the Lakers will split the first 2 games with the Celtics in Boston. But I seriously doubt that Boston can win 1 in Los Angeles.......

FACT........The Lakers were the only team to go undefeated at home in this playoffs.

MrPro
MrPro says:
06/02/08 01:49AM

The Claw,

I totally agree with what you said except 1 thing. You cannot say that Detroit is better than San Antonio because you have nothing to support this statement. They did not meet in the playoffs. So until they meet in the playoffs, we cannot say one team is better than the other. And you cannot use the regular season records or stats to determine which team is better either. Because we both know that regular season doesn't mean a thing. You think that Detroit is better, and I think that San Antonio is better, but until they play one another. This is just our assumption. Therefore, you cannot use this point to say that Boston is better than LA. That's all I am saying man.

Jon100
Jon100 says:
06/02/08 02:21AM

Look, no point in arguing.

I really think those who actually believe that the Lakers are the better team don't see basketball the way some people can.

Afterall the Celts did beat LA twice this regular season. Yes, yes, yes it was without Gasol...I know. But who the heck cares. Bynum could've been just as much of a beast if he didn't go down with a injury.

Boston will win this. Mark my words.

So frigging obvious it makes me laugh at those on the Lakers.

Mark my words and pull it up IF I lose (which is a BIG BIG IF).

We all can state our reasons why we think which team will win but it doesn't matter!! Theres always going to be things where you don't want to believe in and thus can't agree.

But for those who are unsure, TAKE BOSTON if your like winning. PERIOD.

GoG
GoG says:
06/02/08 03:38AM

Detroit is better than San Antonio... and i'll tell you, if you don't know this, you shouldn't be betting on basketball... i don't think he is using this point to say Boston is better than LA, though...

here is the thing, and this is what i am trying to wake people up to... this whole myth about the West being miles above the East... it ended this year, already... and anybody still thinking that way is going to get bitten in the behind on this series... the power distribution has changed dramatically... Detroit is better than every team in the West except for LA... and if you bet on this series, without realizing that, i think you are going to lose your money...

think about it... after the Cleveland series everyone was clamoring how Detroit was gonna beat Boston in 5 or 6... gonna beat them easily... did that happen? did that come close to happening? was Boston ever even on the ropes in that series?

NO! that series was a no-brainer for anyone who knows garbage about basketball... i said it before game 3... anyone who didn't know Boston was going to beat Detroit is BUSH LEAGUE as a handicapper... i made that statement at the worst possible time, since Boston was tied 1-1 going to Detroit, and had yet to win a playoff game... i guaranteed that they would not fall behind in that series...

that's going out on a limb! you think i am making these bold statements for no reason... i know what the darn i'm talking about!

all you fools who somehow have it in your head that the Lakers have suddenly become an unbeatable juggernaut, and that the Celtics are some pretender of a team (like Cleveland TRULY WAS last year)... you guys need to put your money away and let people who know basketball bet this series...

oh yea, and Boston did allow a backdoor cover in Game 7, you're right... miracle 3 gave Cle the cover... but Boston came up big in that game and won...

FACT... this series WILL go at least 6 games...

FACT... Boston WILL win at least 1 game in LA...

this series is very much up in the air, and if the Lakers do not approach this series as if they are the underdog, they will lose...

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