Vegas Watch: Three pitchers who are better than they look

Jacob Wheatley-Schaller is a guest writer for Covers.com who writes a popular sports betting blog, Vegas Watch.

 

Last week, I looked at some pitchers who haven’t pitched as well as their records may indicate.  This week we’ll head to the other end of the spectrum, to guys who have gotten some bad breaks thus far.

 

Barry Zito

 

Yes, really.  Look, I’m not trying to argue that Barry Zito is a particularly good pitcher, or that the Giants are going to win more often than they lose when Zito pitches. But he is not this bad. 

 

Think about it - what seems easier than betting against San Francisco when Zito pitches? The team can’t score, and he’s terrible, so how can they possibly win? 

 

The problem with that line of thinking is that everything I just said is very public knowledge and already built into the line. Take Friday, for example. Seventy three percent of bettors were on the Marlins when they faced Zito. Do you think the oddsmakers aren’t aware that it isn’t 2002 anymore? 

 

I think they are. And they also know that the public perception of Zito is even lower than his actual skill level right now. He’s not going to be winning any more Cy Youngs and he certainly won’t be worth his contract, but he’s also not going to continue having a win percentage of .111 or a BABIP of .332.

 

Aaron Harang

 

After his dominant performance in Cincinnati’s marathon loss on Sunday night, Harang has struck out 72 batters in 78.2 innings while walking only 19.  He gives up too many homers  - always has - but that’s still good for a 3.32 ERA. 

 

Despite this success, his record is only 2-6, making him one of the unluckiest hurlers in baseball thus far. The Reds have managed only 3.27 runs per game in Harang’s 11 starts, while averaging 4.73 runs in their other 40 games.

 

The fact that he’s something of a “name” starter at this point, having won 16 games in each of the last two years, limits his value, but his unfortunate luck has likely caused him to be somewhat overlooked.

 

Brett Myers

 

On May 26, Myers has already allowed 15 home runs. That’s pretty incredible.

 

Despite getting his fair share of ground balls, Myers has always allowed way too many homers, averaging 1.33 per nine innings in his big league career. It’s never been this bad though.

 

His fly ball rate of 33 percent is actually down from the last couple years, yet his HR/9 is way up. This is caused by a HR/FB ratio of 21.4 percent. Although this number has always been quite high for Myers — his career rate is 15.3 percent - the current level is ridiculous and completely unsustainable. Add to that a BABIP of .336, and we should expect Myers, who is currently 2-6 with a 5.79 ERA, to see improved results from here on out.

 

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Posted by Zito
5 years ago

I’m sorry all..Did I hurt your feelings? Can I not express my opinions on a public figure, just like the rest of the hundreds of people on this site do? I have a real life insight on why Barry Zito is a terrible pitcher, (Drugs, lack of practice, no heart, distractions in his personal life etc...). Do i not get a chance to let the world know about this monster? If he does ever improve, and has children idol him, don’t they or their parents have the right to know how horrific his personal life is? Oh and if you don’t like what I have to say, to bad. I have years and years to give out my message to the great people of San Francisco so they will not be fooled by this evil man and his family, called Zito. Shame on him, you and anyone who backs this monster. If only you knew what he calls you lemmings, if only you knew how evil he and his family really are. Even Hitler, would be proud.
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Posted by Zito
5 years ago

All you Zito sympathizers...WAKE UP. That man has zero heart. He is trash beyond trash, his family DNA has been linked to Satan himself. His teammates HATE him as well as everyone who gets to know him personally. He should have no fans; he talks bad about everyone and only thinks about 2 things, himself and how everyone else is below him. The Demon Prince Zito will fail forever, yes you have 100 million undeserved dollars BUT I hope you choke. Have a nice day. (not you Zito)
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Posted by Zito
5 years ago

Barry isn’t the only one to blame for his miserable start. The blame should be given to his family. His father Devil Joe is Satan himself. He has control of his finances and is mean and CHEAP. Barry is being SUED by countless companies and contractors for not paying his bills. He has Millions of dollars but he would rather stiff and spitefully hurt hard working people and send his lawyer Bill to threaten and intimidate them. Barry’s evil father Devil Joe is bringing him down. It’s tough to deal with a personal life were you are HATED by so many people and going to court so often. I hope it’s the “WORK CURSE” I put on him, at first I didn’t believe in it, but it may be working. Best $ I ever spent. Oh and the weed he smokes with his person girlfriend doesn’t help. How do I know? I smoked with him and used to be one of many friends he used to have before the new contract. He is a womanizer and egotistical maniac and has NO friends. Even his teammates dislike him. This is all Fact.
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Posted by rolub
5 years ago

This article pointed me over to Zito's value and a win last night. Thanks Jacob... keep the insightful articles coming.
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Posted by smitch124
5 years ago

Betting on Zito tonight pays at +183...
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Posted by Bren1208
5 years ago

Die hard Phils fan and Myers is AWFUL right now. Marlins are +160 Friday night LOAD UP
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Posted by vagabond79
5 years ago

There is a lot of value in Zito right now. The public is overreacting every game to his earlier struggles even though he has pitched well recently and looks like he's turned things around.
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Posted by Megamaniak
5 years ago

I think Zito and the UNDER are a match made in heaven. He gets feeble run support in his outings. UNDER is the best play when Barry is on the bump in my humble opinion.
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Posted by ShimmeringWang
5 years ago

This is ridiculous. VW offers a pretty solid, standard rundown of some guys who are going to be offered at good prices in the coming weeks, and the response is "JACOB GO INVEST IN A KOSHER PIG FARM WILL YOU (insert more nonsense)" and blanket "ZITO SUX" remarks. There's a reason most people can't beat sportsbooks, and it has everything to do with a fundamental misunderstanding of how value and price are determined. VW has some really good insight. Too bad you guys are going to miss it. I'd ask you to stop writing articles here, for fear that Squareville might slowly turn into EdgeCity, but everyone's going to be too stubborn to back Zito no matter how often you explain the nature of economic value.
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Posted by Philly215
5 years ago

Myers is struggling mightily so far this year, cant locate the fastball which spells big trouble for him
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Posted by LongTermProfits
5 years ago

i think this article is great makes you think and look at some of the "less followed" stats that cappers don't dig deep enogh for, like BABIP, GB/FB ratio, SO/9, HR/9, run support, fly ball %, HR/FB, etc
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Posted by SPIDER817
5 years ago

IT IS SO CLEARTHAT THESE ARTICLES ARE WRITTEN WITH SPORTSBOOK MONEY BEHIND THEM....WHO DO YOU THINK YOU ARE FOOLING WITH THESE OFF THE WALL MORONIC CRAPPY AND BOGUS OPINIONS. LISTEN COVERS.COM..........LEARN TO RESPECT THE PLAYERS WHO FREQUENT THIS SITE,OR THEY WILL "ALL" DISAPEAR...LIKE FAST.... JACOB...GO INVEST IN A KOSHER PIG FARM WILL YOU......behind PICK
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Posted by the_ice_king
5 years ago

ZITO is trash...what is more to know about that???? If you are going to do an article about three pitchers who are better than they look then how about some 3rd or 4th string pitchers for teams who are doing well because of their contributions...Zito loses bettors money....one tip BET AGAINST HIM and RUN LINE HIS TAIL.
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Posted by Vlud
5 years ago

covers is perfect because of the stats and forums,but their staff is a joke.. like some of the "experts" articles though...
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Posted by nccashman
5 years ago

The above posters don't seem to know sheeott about wagering on baseball.
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Posted by the_ice_king
5 years ago

Who wrote this...seriously AWFUL
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Posted by RollOfTheDice
5 years ago

Not buyin' any of this. At least not with my hard earned money.
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Posted by grandpa9494
5 years ago

Am I crazy, or did I only count 3?
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Top Response

Posted by grandpa9494
5 years ago

"Am I crazy, or did I only count 3?"