New York Mets at Atlanta (+102, 8)
This is a tough one. On one hand, you’ve got Johan Santana going for a sweet price against a club that he’s dominated in the past (2.47 ERA in three career meetings). On the other hand, you’ve got Tim Hudson on the hill for the Braves, who actually has a better ERA than Santana this season and one more win.
And when you look at the hitting numbers of these two teams, it’s not surprising that the Braves are working on a sweep in this four-game series. The Braves are hitting .284 as a team, which is second best in the majors, and that gets even better (.315) at home. New York is struggling at the plate, ranked 21st in MLB with a .255 team average, and has managed only seven runs in the previous three games of this series.
As tempting as it might be to go with Santana at -115, the big lefty can only do so much by himself.
Pick: Braves
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (-110, 9)
The Pirates have gotten a reputation for being pathetic at the plate this year largely because of a .249 team batting average – one of the worst averages in baseball. But don’t make too much of that. Pittsburgh is actually among the league leaders in runs produced, which goes a long way in explaining why the over/under in Bucs’ games is 27-17-2.
This game has as good a chance as any of going over the total with David Bush and Tom Gorzelanny in the starting roles. Both pitchers have ERAs above 6.00 and even at the pitcher-friendly PNC Park you can expect plenty of offense today.
Pick: Over
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