Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets

By COVERS.com STAFF | May 22, 2008 | 217 comments
send to a friend print version rss feeds AddThis Social Bookmark Button

New York Mets at Atlanta (+102, 8)

This is a tough one. On one hand, you’ve got Johan Santana going for a sweet price against a club that he’s dominated in the past (2.47 ERA in three career meetings). On the other hand, you’ve got Tim Hudson on the hill for the Braves, who actually has a better ERA than Santana this season and one more win.

And when you look at the hitting numbers of these two teams, it’s not surprising that the Braves are working on a sweep in this four-game series. The Braves are hitting .284 as a team, which is second best in the majors, and that gets even better (.315) at home. New York is struggling at the plate, ranked 21st in MLB with a .255 team average, and has managed only seven runs in the previous three games of this series.

As tempting as it might be to go with Santana at -115, the big lefty can only do so much by himself.

Pick: Braves

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (-110, 9)

The Pirates have gotten a reputation for being pathetic at the plate this year largely because of a .249 team batting average – one of the worst averages in baseball. But don’t make too much of that. Pittsburgh is actually among the league leaders in runs produced, which goes a long way in explaining why the over/under in Bucs’ games is 27-17-2.

This game has as good a chance as any of going over the total with David Bush and Tom Gorzelanny in the starting roles. Both pitchers have ERAs above 6.00 and even at the pitcher-friendly PNC Park you can expect plenty of offense today.

Pick: Over

To check back on yesterday's Hot Lines, click here.

Think you have what it takes to write about sports betting for Covers.com? Drop us a line via e-mail and tell us why we need you as a freelance contributor. 

217 comments
comment Post A Comment
Aussieguy says:
05/22/08 09:50AM

29W-22L Record...

CLEVELAND INDIANS (Laffey A.) 5 Unit bet for me this one. It's my biggest bet of the day! Hope we hit with the tribe and Laffey shows us the paper!

Cheers, Best wishes and Best of luck to us all today

AUSSIE

seventy_percent says:
05/22/08 10:34AM

johan santana takes the braves to the cleaners.

Aussieguy says:
05/22/08 10:35AM

Cheers lucky. Keep up the hot streak mate and the ice cold beer - AUSSIE

indrep says:
05/22/08 10:35AM

I really love Cincinnati with Harang -120 at San Diego. Cincinnati I beleive should be able to get to Wolf just like that got to Cliff Lee last Sunday. Cincy got swept by LA so the incentive to right the ship is there. SD is pathetic plus Bard got injured last night. Sometimes an unfamiliar catcher calling a game is worth taking a look at as well.

Anyway this is my only major play today for 4 units.

I do like the under in Tex/Min. Two crafty pitchers in Padilla and Hernandez should keep this under. 1/2 unit.

Logon - I like to talk about the weather because I live in Cleveland. :-)

Vinman41 says:
05/22/08 10:54AM

Indrep,

Watch Out Cinci has lost 9 or 10 in a row on the road!!

Card is looking pretty weak today!

Money2008 says:
05/22/08 11:15AM

Seattle/Detroit Over 9.5

-Over is 5-0 in Mariners last 5 games as an underdog of +151 to +200.

-Over is 5-1 in Mariners last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.

-Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

-Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 games as a home favorite.

-Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams.

-Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Detroit.

I capped this game at 12 total runs.

I have 4 units on this play.

Best of Luck to Everybody!

MTFN50 says:
05/22/08 11:27AM

Two things jumping out at me. One Dbacks Same type scenerio Harrens last start (where he was the dog) he won now hes -127 on the road (good#),if this was home it be -157. As someone on here stated then, Harren at a price,you gotta take it. and the Sunshine boys havent been as hot as they were. Another is Mets game,Same as Sat. when Santana pitched and the total was low8 then 8 now love the over here.I have hit overs when Santana pitches again today Last nite 1-0 Spurs under1st half-100 Monday 2-2 Any thghts. let us know. Not so helpful when people just list 10 games and there picks Good post MONEY looking at the game now.

indrep says:
05/22/08 11:38AM

VinMan - I appreciate that. The other reason for my strong lean is that Cincinnati can score runs whereas the Padres have trouble in that department. Nonetheless, this is the reason I post plays, I love feedback like that. It keeps me in check.

SteveBenson says:
05/22/08 11:43AM

Seattle Over. Night game to follow

MTFN50 says:
05/22/08 11:48AM

Seattle is Under 5-1 in the last game of a series. 7-1 under as road underdogs.Batista the same7-1 under as a road dog.. Seattle is 5-1 when the total is set at the same.Alot of oppisite trends in this game situation Just pointing out some things that Ive noticed ,Good luck.Originally Iwas looking at the RL in this game.Detrit looks like at home there coming around.And seattle seems to not fare well in game 3 of 3 game series My only play so far is OV8 METS - GL

MTFN50 says:
05/22/08 11:59AM

Locked in plays for today- Gotta make them early today . Mets ov8 Santana usally gives up some runs and the Mets seem to hit when hes on the mound Even two good pitching performances on both sides can still put the total OV 8

Early game -Over9 Twins

NHL under5.5 Detroit/Penns This should be a hard hitting defensive series. Both goalies are rested annd hot

Vinman41 says:
05/22/08 12:01PM

Indrep-Good point. SD is a good whooping dog this year. Kouzmanoff got me the other night vs STL!

Good Luck!

Vinman41 says:
05/22/08 12:03PM

Arizona Alert:

They left their bats at Home. They cost Webb an awesome performance yesterday. Look for more of the same today. They couldn't hit Nolasco yesterday...Uh OH!

MTFN50 says:
05/22/08 12:13PM

Vinman just seeen that . The combo of Harren and the fact they they arent hitting. With the under set at 8.5 to me is the play. And the under trends in this situation are favorable Locked in Under8.5 took away twins game

METS -OV 8

ARIZ-UN 8.5

NHL- UN 5.5 game 1

Vinman41 says:
05/22/08 12:14PM

Arizona batting .197 on the road vs righties this year. Arizona is 20-5 vs NLW and 6-12 vs the rest. Factor in the road record 9-10 and I think Fla is the play today. Miller has been decent over the last 3 starts. 2-1, 2.00 ERA!

Makes a good case for the under also.

Mega can you break this one down for me for a total?

Megamaniak says:
05/22/08 12:14PM

Only 1 pitcher in 82 years has gone 10-0 to start the year. That's a trend I'm never betting against.

That Webb game was a trap from the get go fellas. Plus Florida wanted to make a name for itself this year.

Webb got outdueled by Nolasco and the lackluster bats didn't help. I do like Danny for that price though today.

Megamaniak says:
05/22/08 12:15PM

I'm going to look into the UNDER guys.

Vinman41 says:
05/22/08 12:16PM

I like that MTFN! The under might be a better play. Do you have any trends to back it up. I cant find any!

Vinman41 says:
05/22/08 12:26PM

Covers has Miller listed as a rightie, when in fact he is a lefty. Arizona hits lefties a little better .262 on the road.

I'm still leaning under here.

Anyone like the over in Detroit this morning. Bonderman just puts people on base all the time!

jaysvubwhat says:
05/22/08 12:38PM

i'm looking at 3 team parlay of ...detroit run line, min/Tex under and Ari

THE_SAINT says:
05/22/08 12:42PM

Vinman

COVERS has Justin Miller(RH) instead Andrew Miller(LH)

Megamaniak says:
05/22/08 12:59PM

Yea I'm not really digging that ARI matchup after further review, its a no-play.

Covers needs to get their shite together this morning. My books is way slow with the lines

this morning. Wake up people, game time in an hour.

Early MLB leans:

-KC/BOS UNDER 9

-TOR ML

Be back later with reasonings and analysis.

Megamaniak says:
05/22/08 01:08PM

I can't ignore the hurling juggernaut that now is Vicente Padilla.

-TEX is 8-2 in his last ten starts

-Padilla went 9 against the Twinkies earlier this year with 0.00 ERA. He has gone 4-0 with an ERA of 1.60 last starts.

-Conversely Livan has struggled career wise and this year against the Rangers, giving up seven runs in his lone start against the Lone Star crew this year.

-Texas has been en fuego, Josh Hamilton is a rising star.

I'm leanin' Texas in this one, good value for a hot team.

Megamaniak says:
05/22/08 01:16PM

KC/BOSOX UNDER 9 INFO

Day games at Fenway usually are low scoring affairs. Pitchers for years have loved to work in the daylight hours. The reason; the shadows and angles of the park create havoc with hitters and are a huge advantage for the pitcher.

-UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.

-Dice-K has an ERA of 1.75 at home this year. Opponents batting a feeble .183 vs.him.

-Bannister is Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde when it comes to day and night starts, bordering on the ridiculous. Bannister is 4-0 with an ERA of 0.62 in the day. At night he is 0-5 with an ERA of 8.13. Wow.

Unfamiliarity breeds UNDER totals. All Red Sox roster players have less than 8 AB's vs. Brian. Only Guillen of the Royals has more than 3 AB's vs. Dice-Ksan.

I like Dr. Jekyll to show up today, and for Dice-K to limit his walks.

MY PICK: KC/BOSOX UNDER 9

catmur9 says:
05/22/08 01:23PM

Hey Mega

Cloudy, cool and damp here in Boston.

I don't know if that matters to you.

More Comments:  1 2 3 4 5   »

Post A Comment

Add your response:
Advertisement