Super Bowl Opening Line Report
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STEPHEN NOVER - Experience, knowledge and contacts spell long term profit
January 21, 2008
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The 18-0 New England Patriots may prove indeed to be the greatest NFL team of all-time. But they’ve been a huge money-burner since late November.
The Patriots have only covered once during their past eight games. That may be a factor why early Super Bowl money has been on the New York Giants. The Giants have their own momentum winning three consecutive road playoff games and 10 straight away contests.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out an opening number of Patriots -14 with an ‘over/under’ of 55. Both side and totals had been adjusted downward by late Monday morning.
New England was down to -12 with the total at either 53 ½ or 54.
Senior LVSC linesmaker Mike Seba believes both side and total are going to go back up.
“I know the Giants have been playing great,” he said. “You can’t take that away from them. That’s why maybe the number has been going down.
“But I see it going up. It could get up to 14. I’m not sure if it will reach that high, but I could see it 13 or 13 ½.”
The Giants seemed to have few believers even though they beat Dallas two weeks ago as seven-point road underdogs. Green Bay got steamed up as high as eight-point favorites, but the Giants prevailed in overtime 23-20.
It probably hurts the Giants having to wait two weeks before taking on New England since they’ve been so hot.
The Patriots weren’t fantastic on Sunday in the AFC title game, methodically defeating crippled San Diego, 21-12. The Patriots were able to win despite Tom Brady throwing three interceptions and playing perhaps his worst game of the season.
“The Patriots seem to raise their level and play accordingly to what they have to do,” Seba said.
The Giants nearly upset the Patriots at home on Dec. 29, losing as a 13-point underdog, 38-35. New York let a 12-point second-half lead slip away.
Seba doesn’t envision another close game between the two teams.
“It helps the Giants that they’ve played the Patriots,” he said. “But I don’t think New England played its best game during that last meeting. The Giants definitely will get New England’s best this time.”
LVSC had six of its oddsmakers make a Super Bowl number. The numbers ranged from 13 to 15. So the linesmakers compromised at 14.
“We’d rather be on the high side with New England,” Seba said.
The ‘over/under’ range was from a low of 52 ½ up to 56.
“We considered 56 before sending out 55,” Seba said. “Usually the total is bet up in the Super Bowl, especially when you have two good quarterbacks like we have here.”
Seba believes the total, like the side, will rise as the game gets closer.
“I could see it closing 54 or 55,” he said. “I’m surprised the total has initially gone down. But I think you’ll see it go up as we get closer to post.”
Traditionally the betting pattern on the Super Bowl is a flurry of early action within the first 24 hours of the numbers being posted, meaning heavy play on Sunday night and Monday morning.
Once the number settles in, there usually isn’t much wagering on the side and total until the last 48 hours before the game.
Nevada bookmakers are anticipating a record handle. There is a lot of interest to see if the Patriots can reach perfection, plus the Giants attract strong East Coast money.
The most money wagered on a Super Bowl in Nevada occurred two seasons ago when $94.5 million was bet on the Seattle-Pittsburgh game.
Bookmakers believe this could be Nevada’s first $100 million Super Bowl. If that much is going to be bet in Nevada, it’s scary to think how much is going to be wagered on the Internet and with street bookies.