Pick ‘n’ roll: Thursday’s best NBA bets

By COVERS.com STAFF | December 5, 2007 |

Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks (-9 ½, 188)

Minnesota has lost nine of its last 10 contests and two straight on the road. Now the Timberwolves visit Philips Arena to meet a Hawks club that has covered the spread in their last six matchups dating back to 2005.

The Hawks trounced the Timberwolves 94-87 on Nov. 24. Atlanta leading-scorer Joe Johnson led his team with 25 points, while fantasy-stud Josh Smith added three steals and five blocks.

Pick: Hawks -9 ½

Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks (-7, 213 ½)

Is Dallas setting up for a letdown Thursday?

The Mavs met archrivals San Antonio on Wednesday and now must host the 11-7 Nuggets.

Dallas has covered the spread just two times in its last 12. It has also failed to cash in five straight games in the Big D.

The Nuggets are also 6-3 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Mavericks.

Pick: Nuggets +7

Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers (+2, 187 ½)

Portland has lost three of its last four home tilts after opening the season 5-0 at the Rose Garden.

The Heat, meanwhile, have covered the spread in six of their nine games outside South Beach.

They have also covered in three of their last five road contests since Dwyane Wade’s return from offseason shoulder surgery. Wade is leading the Heat in scoring, averaging more than 20 points.

Miami has also covered the spread in four of its last five trips to Oregon, dating back to 2002.

Pick: Heat -2

For professional picks for tonight’s NBA action visit Covers Experts.

186 comments

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fido123 says:

12/06/07 12:24AM

Wow this was out 24 hours before game start. I supose it has nothing to do with pathetic record yesterday? And going on charlotte, dallas, new jersey? haha I can open web with picks like that. but someone would kille me.

ADMIT, HOW MUCH ARE BOOKIES PAYING YOU FOR PUBLISHING RIDICILOUS PICKS?

P.S. I wouldn't bet on Hawks -9.5 even if they were playing against paraolympic team.

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ilovekim says:

12/06/07 01:13AM

THE NUGGETS?!!! What type of pick is that? They just lost to LA at home while Kobe and Odom were out the entire 3rd quarter.

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avalon says:

12/06/07 01:26AM

I hate Denver!!! Inverson gets over 50 points and they still can't be the Lakers in their home Arena!!! wtf jack!

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badkabot says:

12/06/07 02:10AM

i agree 24 hours before tip and u guys are releasing picks????

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badkabot says:

12/06/07 02:12AM

i actually read the article this time , they don't even have a line and you guys are picking the nuggets??? blind leading the blind...

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Jopimpson89 says:

12/06/07 02:22AM

Yeah theres no way Nuggets will win that, and besides its way to early to be making picks

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surmountall says:

12/06/07 05:30AM

I hate denver too they suck

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Kurupt_75 says:

12/06/07 06:22AM

lol...dudes relax! There free picks, take them with a grain of salt. And the picks are made based on posted overnight lines...Den +7 is actually a pretty good pick...geez, their not saying they'll win, just that they'll play within that number...have you seen the Mavs' ATS record this season?

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knicks0725 says:

12/06/07 08:47AM

CJ VEGAS WHAT THE VEGAS VICE 2NITE

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knicks0725 says:

12/06/07 08:48AM

LET ME KNOW HOW WE CAN COMMUNICATE IF U DONT WANT TO POST ON HERE

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What-a-joke says:

12/06/07 08:54AM

2 more vegas vice losers last night.... I bet he comes on here today and says he is 12-1 today....what a joke....

and to top it off he is now asking $20 a week for his picks... anyone can get losers from the forum for free....

Now he's going to say he won't email his picks to me tonight...poor me?? more like lucky me.....

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Ludo says:

12/06/07 09:30AM

I am 10-1 this season on my picks i only release them when i really like them toda play Miami

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tonktime says:

12/06/07 10:17AM

4-1 last nite. Gonzaga let me down. I should of left that game alone.

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naldo says:

12/06/07 10:37AM

trying to get on my way back. I have been so cold lately every bet makes me nervouse. except the celts 2nd half minus 9 when they are trailing by 5 to the sixers.....so know I need to try and get hot off this win and make a run.

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Yeyo1 says:

12/06/07 10:40AM

What up boyz?! 3-0 on my picks last night Booyah!

Clemson

BYU

Pitts

also did a 3 team parlay with Celtics, Georgetown and Pitts (nhl)

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tonktime says:

12/06/07 10:55AM

What's on your menu tonight YEyo1? Maybe I can add some ingredients for your dish. lol

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Maestro664 says:

12/06/07 11:31AM

Gentleman - term used loosley, For you that think the game is handicapped and won by waiting for the public and so forth to dictate terms - I agree with having my picks in play at least 24 hours prior to a game.

Case and Point

Last night I had been waiting for the Bucks to get to second game b2b versus west coast against G State - I was on this game for match up reasons a week ago and the fact that the Bucks won the night before even helped.

Pro active and play games that fit your ideas and spread versus waiting and being reactionary. the only time that works is after seeing a wave of public opinion drive the number and then go the other way.

So instead of bashing use the info to support or deny your own thoughts if you have them.

Maestro not teeing it up today a taad bit cold at the beach today.

Good Gambling night

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Broc says:

12/06/07 11:41AM

hey everyone,

As per the manifesto:

"9) Our forum will not be used as a place to do your personal business. Phone numbers, home addresses and email addresses that are found in any forum other then Web Site Promotions will be deleted."

You;'ve all said you will comply with the manifesto when you signed up.

Any emails posted from here on, your account will be deactivated. Use the Covers' Spaces for this.

Thanks,

Brock.

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What-a-joke says:

12/06/07 11:42AM

Don't listen to this FOOL, he picks losers.... Here's his vice for week 16 he takes Miami to beat New England....

CJVEGAS says:

12/06/07 03:40AM

NFL...NATIONAL FAKENESS LEAGUE......NATIONAL FIXED LEAGUE

OF COURSE ITS FIXED.....PATRIOTS WILL CRUSH THE STEELERS THIS WEEK AND COVER THE LINE IN THAT GAME.....BUT RELAX PEOPLE THEY WILL NOT GO UNDEFEATED......TALK ABOUT FISHY..THEY PLAY THE FISH IN 3 WEEKS....CAN ANYONE SAY 14-0 AT THAT TIME AND THE 72' DOLPHINS RECORD ON THE LINE....DOLPHINS SHOCK THE WORLD AND KNOCK OFF THE PATS.....TAKE IT TO THE BANK!!!!!!

Like the league had it planned out that NE would be undefeated at this time?????

What-a-Joke this guy is.......

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tonktime says:

12/06/07 11:52AM

I love BUTLER tonght.

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naldo says:

12/06/07 11:53AM

I like miami to dont know if I am going to play them as they are my favorite team and I ussally stay away from them....any college games people like tonight... I wish I was up didnt take any college last night and went 7-1 on my picks last night in college. But in the end it was good because I pick the wrong lean. I was going to bet buffalo out of my eight picks and they were the only one that lost....and I talked myselft out of nc wilmington pick after people said they were to young and no one picked them on any forums of course the covered by 5. I am liking dogs more and more in cbasketball...in the right games.

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falcon_jcr says:

12/06/07 12:15PM

Hey All! This forum is such a good read for everything but any actual insights or logical basis for making any picks. I have been working on a hoops spreadsheet for the last two years, taking all meaningful stats into consideration. It finally has reached a point where I can completely trust it, as long as I don't throw all of the "intangibles" out the window and keep me BETS to only the games which indicate a BET should be placed.

Decided to Post today only becuase all three of these games suck and telling everyone the best play is to take a break tonight. Here is why!

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks -9.5

My sheet indicates a 102 to 86 stat advantage to the Hawks. (Note: 16 pt difference and I only bet when it is 20 or more for the favorite or less than 10 for the dog) I also have two score calculations. Predicted score is Minn 94 Atl 101 and calculated score is 98-100

All of this makes it too close to take the Hawks and too big to take the timberwolves. However do think the Hawks are going in the right direction and will keep a closer eye on them.

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks -7

Stat advantage 127 to 114 in favor of Dallas. (13 pt difference) Predicted Score 102-111 in favor of Dallas. Calculated score 94-107 therefore Dallas is looking pretty good to cover the 7, however Dallas still has a few kinks to work out on Defense and I watched the Nuggets/Lakers last night. Iverson has to be frustrated and needs his teammates to step up. Tonight may be that night? NOT strong enough to make a play either way.

Miami Heat -3 @ Portland Trailblazers

Not even going to list what my sheet says. These two teams are far too unpredictable to place any wager on.

In Summary you can throw your money out there tonight. You might win or you might lose. If most of you are like I am and play mostly for the action. You are probable very adept a treading water. Sometimes you get lucky and go on a winning streak, than you start feeling invincible and give it all back. The action is fun and I will probably mess around tonight with a couple of small teasers and might even try to hit the middle on a couple of games, but will leave making money to another night and better situations.

P.S. Paying for picks, bashing each other, and throwing stuff against the wall just to see what sticks are all worthless except for entertainment purposes only. I wish we could all get on the same page, but through experience it will never happen in this format.

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naldo says:

12/06/07 12:20PM

looking at valparasio and milwaukee-ws

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liljudge227 says:

12/06/07 12:28PM

12-4 in the last three days...im on a roll!

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packersbackers says:

12/06/07 12:33PM

well written post falcon...i feel the same.

tonight is really a weak night for hoops.

i can't believe people are drooling over the MIA/PORT game, just makes me laugh that people willing to bet on 2 crap teams with no consistent winning history...how can MIA be the fav here? Portland only wins at home, and agaist a weak road record of MIA, shouldn't PORT be the play? i'm not touching this at all.

POD's are ridiculous, but that's what people want...so I like Butler, took it last night at -9, now its already -11, so i'm liking BUTLER even more than i did when i locked in last night!

GL to all

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Pick ‘n’ roll: Thursday’s best NBA bets

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