Picking the winner of this week’s race is like shooting fish in a barrel, which got me to wondering why anybody would shoot fish in a barrel.
I mean, what’s the point? Why not just reach your hand into the barrel and pick out a fish with your hands?
What kind of gun would you use to shoot a fish in a barrel? A shotgun? A Glock? Wouldn’t the water be so bloody after you shot the first one that you wouldn’t be able to spot fish number two?
These are some of life’s questions that continue unanswered for me.
But there is a question that I do know the answer to, as does the rest of the NASCAR Nation. And that is who will win the Bank of America 500.
This is, after all, Lowe’s Motor Speedway. And the No. 48 car driven by Jimmie Johnson (4-1) is sponsored by Lowe’s. So it’s only natural that the winner of the race will be Tony Stewart (7-1).
Hey, I’m just trying to mess with your head.
The biggest question as we go into this race at LMS is which of the 42 cars behind the winner will come in second? You could argue until there’s no beer left in Milwaukee and never come to an agreement on that one.
But even someone whose favorite sport is guessing how many red M & Ms there are in a box can tell you that all JJ has to do tomorrow is find his way from his RV to his car and he will lead the pack to the black and white flag. We’ll tell you why in our Spare Parts section. (No skipping to that section allowed)
After last week’s war of attrition at Talladega there are really only four legitimate contenders for the Nextel Cup Championship. With six races, one might think that there is still plenty of time left to make up the 262-point difference between leader Jeff Gordon (6-1) and Denny Hamlin (12-1) in ninth.
But as they say in England, not bloody likely!
Gordon and Johnson are only more likely to widen the gap than see it narrow. We aren’t forgetting surprise third-place sitter Clint Bowyer (18-1), a mere 63 points out of first, but that bubble is about to burst with a loud pop.
Hendrick Motorsports Racing teammates Johnson and Gordon are pals but that had as much impact as a fly on an elephant’s ass with a few hundred yards to go last week at Talladega. Gordon authored one of the boldest moves seen since RuPaul tried to slip into a size six and pulled to the outside of Jimmie, becoming the beneficiary of Tony Stewart’s push across the finish line.
It was what we in the biz like to call a “defining moment” which means we spilled our drinks when it happened.
Unless Stewart wins half of the remaining races while Jimmie and Jeff come down with malaria, this Chase is going to be a two-horse race, and a stable entry at that. Pals though they may be, these two are going to drive the lug nuts off their beasts to try and capture the 2007 version of Survivor in Sheet Metal.
Spare Parts:
Jeff has three wins, 10 top 5’s, 12 top 10’s and a finishing average (FA) of 17.6 at LMS. But in the last seven point races here, working back from May, Gordon has finished 41st, 24th, 36th, 38th, 30th, seventh (in the fall of 2004) and 30th in the spring of 2004.
JJ has five wins, eight top 5’s, 11 top 10’s and an astonishing FA of 6.2 at LMS. That’s why the NN knows that Jimmie is going to make the rest of the field look like they’re driving go-karts. Johnson has 11 consecutive top 10 finishes at Charlotte – only one of those is worse than seventh (he was 10th at Charlotte in May) and five of those finishes are wins. Sandwiched between four consecutive victories and his most recent 10th-place result are back-to-back runner-up finishes.
Chevrolet has won seven of the last 10 at LMS (can you say Jimmie Johnson?) while Dodge has won the other three.
The last Ford winner was driven by Mark Martin (30-1) who has two wins, 12 top 5’s, 14 top 10’s and a 10.6 FA.
The pole position has won this race six times in the past 30 races. Outside the front pole has produced five winners in that time.
In 20 of the last 30 races the winner has come from a top 10 starting position. The worst starting position to produce a winner is 37th when Gordon won in May of 2003.
Carl Edwards (12-1) loves this venue. He doesn’t have any wins yet but his FA is 7.8 with two top 5’s and four top 10’s.
With Ryan Newman (18-1) getting his seventh pole here, you would expect him to be a contender. But he has no wins, three top 5’s, five top 10’s and a 21.5 FA.
Matchups:
Gordon +125 vs Johnson -125
I picked JJ to win the race. Case closed.
Jamie McMurray -105 vs Mark Martin -115
Mark has such an excellent record at LMS, I see him with a top 5 finish. Pick him.
Carl Edwards +110 vs Earnhardt Jr. -130.
See Edwards above. Besides, those new DEI/RCR motors have “Do Not Use For Racing” stamped on the shipping crates. Junior had the engine blow in six races this season. Number seven is tonight.
Jeff Burton +105 vs Clint Bowyer -125
Burton has been invisible since the Chase began. Bowyer won’t win the chase but he will beat Burton tonight.
Last week, 3-1; season, 58-46.