Riviera Golf Course is a rare classic track mixed among the long, characterless courses the players face most weeks on tour.
Riviera is just 7,260 yards, but its strategic setup provides competitors with challenges they don’t usually face in a regular tour event.
The course is filled with doglegs and strategic bunkering, making it one of the few courses more suited to straight hitters than long bombers. Also consider the fact that Los Angeles is expected to be rain-free this week and length shouldn’t be an issue.
It also means that the greens are going to play harder and faster than they have in recent years, which again will help a more classic golfer – one that hits it straight and has a great short game.
There are 25 players in the field with shorter odds than defending champion Rory Sabbatini (+8100). Sabbatini nearly blew a four-shot lead entering the final round last year, shooting a 1-over 72 to beat Adam Scott (+1300) by one shot.
Sabbatini has struggled this year with two missed cuts and two other disappointing finishes (T-34 and T-59). Scott hasn’t played on tour since a second place finish at the season-opening Mercedes Championship.
Phil Mickelson (+1100) is the favorite after his dominating win at Pebble Beach last week. Mickelson dominated the field with a tournament record-tying total of 20 under par. Scott and Ernie Els (+1300) are the second favorites. They are followed by notables Jim Furyk (+1500), Vijay Singh (+1700) and Reteif Goosen (+2100).
Eight of the world’s top 10 players will be in attendance overall, but the tournament will be without world No. 1 Tiger Woods for the first time since 2002. His absence leaves the door open for another one of golf’s stars to take center stage in what is shaping up to be the biggest Tiger-free event of the early season.
Keeping with the theme of short hitters with strong short games, here are this week’s matchup picks:
Stewart Cink (-112) vs. Justin Rose (-112) – Cink (tournament matchup)
Cink will excel at a course where driving the ball isn’t an issue. He has always been a fantastic putter – he was fifth on tour in 2003, first in 2004, 34th in 2005 and 35th last year – and should be well rested after skipping Pebble Beach last week.
He also faces an opponent in Rose who has no business being matched with a player of Cink’s caliber. Rose finished T-51 and T-39 in two tournaments since blowing the final round lead at the Bob Hope in January. He was the first round leader at the Nissan last year, but faded to finished T-39.
Cink has been steady if not spectacular in eight career starts at the Nissan. He has never missed the cut, but has just one finish better than T-17 (T-5 in 2000) and one worse than T-45 (T-62 in 1999).
Aaron Baddeley (+100) vs. Mike Weir (-120) – Baddeley (tournament matchup)
Baddeley is another fantastic putter who will be able to take advantage of the slick conditions at Riviera. He hasn’t finished worse than 11th in putting since becoming a full-time tour member and he is hotter than almost anyone else in golf after winning two weeks ago at the FBR Open and following it up with a T-19 last week at Pebble Beach.
Weir has won this tournament twice, but he isn’t putting as well as he was back when he won in 2003 and 2004. He finished T-37 and T-39 the last two seasons, and missed the cut in his other four starts. Don’t expect much out of him this year coming off a missed cut at Pebble Beach where he averaged 1.813 putts per green in regulation.
David Toms (-112) vs. Charles Howell III (-112) – Toms (tournament matchup)
Toms has quietly had a very strong start to the season. He hasn’t finished worse than T-13 in any of his first three starts on tour and he hasn’t shot over par since his first round of the season at the Mercedes Championship.
Toms is another player this course will set up perfectly for this week. He is currently 13th on tour in putting average and is consistently one of the top putters on tour. He is matched up against another one of the tour’s hotter players in Howell, but Howell’s game isn’t as well suited to Riviera as it was some of the other courses he has had success on this year.
Howell is a bomber. He ranks fifth on the tour in driving distance this year and just 38th in putting. Don’t expect him to play as well as he has in past weeks once his length is neutralized.
Pick to win
After much deliberation, this week’s pick is Luke Donald at +2900. Donald is the prototypical player for this week’s tournament with a straight and solid long game and fantastic touch around the greens. He has also played well this year with two top 10 finshes in three starts.
Donald also has a history of recent success at Riviera with T-12 and T-13 finishes each of his last two years.
Matchups:
Last week: 0-3 (-3.12 units)
Year to date: 1-8 (-7.45 units)
To win:
Last week: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
Year to date: 0-3 (-3.00 units)
Previous picks to win (result):
Pebble Beach: Jim Furyk +1000 (T-6)
FBR Open: Scott Verplank +3400 (MC)
Buick Invitational: Charles Howell III +5100 (2)