Ugly unders make pretty bets
It’s always been the understanding in the sports investment industry that when it comes to betting totals, the public loves the ‘over’. It stands to reason. Who wants to place a wager, wishing for a whole-lot-of-nothing to take place?
The answer is those who can separate their personal enjoyment from serious money making theories can make money on the ‘under.’ All it takes is a little patience.
On highly publicized events the total is often shaded towards the wagering tendencies of the public, leaving you to pay a heavy price to bet on both the favorite and the ‘over.’ Of course, this doesn’t mean that one shies away from betting the ‘over’ in any game being played on television, be aware that in some cases you could be losing value.
For a quick and accurate example of this theory, one needs looking no further than the results of the 2005 Super Bowl and NBA All-Star games. In both cases, the underdog and the under, cashed tickets. Many were left with useless favorite-plus-over parlay tickets in their hands, while a lucky few were able to win by going against the public grain. Those ‘under’ bettors who fell asleep waiting for the scoring to begin, were happy to awake winners.
I guess ultimately what I’m trying to say is that if you see an under bet that you like, do not discard it as an ugly bet. While the excitement may be null and void, the end profit remains the same as an easy ‘over’ win.
Favorites cover and overs happen, but the public might be less quick to catch on to a nice little under trend you may have uncovered. This something to consider when looking at totals. An ugly under could turn out to be a pretty good bet.