Ask the oddsmaker: Line moves

When it comes to sports gambling, the more you know, the more you make.

Enter professional oddsmaker Keith Glantz. Glantz is here to answer any sports betting question you can dish out that will help you increase your sports betting IQ. Be sure to check out his weekly columns and send him any inquiries you have.

This week he looks at some gambling basics like line moves, money management, and how teams perform when they're under the gun.

Question: Hey Keith, when you start making lines for teams on the NCAA bubble, do you inflate them very much? Is this like the must-win teams late in the season in the NBA or NFL, or are the college basketball teams treated differently?

Answer: Let me first point out that you really can’t expect a team to start playing on a significantly higher level than they have played all year just because it may be a must-win situation, and that goes for all sports. Obviously they will be focused and put on their best effort. Admittedly, there may be some shading of these lines at times because that’s still the way the betting public thinks. So if the public keeps a tendency on betting teams that need to win, then a slight adjustment may be made.

I took this question one step further and asked handicapper Dave Malinsky, one of our Covers Experts, what he thought.

“One of the things that bettors need to remember for all sports is that just because teams need to win a particular game, it doesn’t always mean that they will play better," says Malinsky. "Pressure can sometimes impair a team’s ability to perform, and the very fact that a team is on the bubble, and not already assured of a spot, is that they do have some weaknesses somewhere, or have not maximized their potential.

“At the same time, remember that the fact that a team needs to win does not mean that they need to win big. The Tournament Committee does not place much emphasis on margin of victory.”

Question: What’s a “unit” in betting terms and how do you decide what your own individual unit should be?

Answer: I touched on money management a couple of weeks ago, but this is an important aspect of it. For the serious handicapper a bankroll is a must. A “unit” to me is a percentage of that bankroll for each bet. So if your bankroll at the start of the season is $1000, I suggest your “unit” play to be 5 percent of that or $50 per wager.

If you stick with the 5 percent rule, you don’t have to worry about pressing up your bets or chasing your losses. As your bankroll increases, so does your “unit” play and your plays become smaller when things don’t go your way.

The other meaning of “unit” play, and not one that I recommend, is when you follow a handicapper that says that a certain play is a “20 or 30-star (or unit)” play. As ridiculous as it may seem, I’ve seen these “star” plays go to 50 or 100 or more. I really don’t need to elaborate further.

Question: Is it a good practice for a bettor to follow the steam and go with the direction the line is moving?

Answer: Well, if the moves are winning and the pointspread really doesn’t come into play, you’ll be on the right side. However, the problem is that often the line does come into play and while the early move may win, the number that you get may be a loser. <

Don’t think that you’ll be able to find the same number as the wise guys that are playing that game. In fact, taking the opposite approach may fare even better. If the line moves considerably, there may be “value” taking the other side. The books don’t lose to every move and quite often even the immediate followers don’t cash. If you have time to make your own numbers, don’t get influenced by the line moves. If, on the other hand, you really don’t have time to actually study each and every game, you are better off using a professional handicapper like one of our Covers Experts. These guys handicap for a living, do their homework, play their own selections, and get paid only if they win for you.

Question: How much action do over/under lines get in comparison to the pointspread? If it’s considerably less, are pointspreads generally sharper than totals?

Answer: Let’s look at this from the side of the books. Generally speaking, it depends on the sport they are dealing.

For instance, if a sportsbook takes $10,000 to an NFL side, they’ll most likely take $2000 to the total. In the NBA, a book that takes say $3000 to the side will normally take $1000 to the total. And in baseball, a book that takes $2000 to the side will normally take $500 to the total.

As for “are pointspreads generally sharper than totals?” I’d rather look at it where the pointspreads being normally in single digits whereas the totals are normally in the 30’s or 40’s in the NFL and 180 to over 200 in the NBA. So in their own category, they can be equally as sharp even though the totals move much more freely.

Then again, the books certainly take considerably more time on the sides.

Question: What makes a line move once it opens?

Answer: Well, the most obvious reason is that the book takes a limit bet on one side and moves the number so they don’t get any further play at that pointspread. But there are other reasons.

A major injury will certainly be dealt with immediately by either the book adjusting the line if they have a feel for what that player is worth, or the book will take the game down altogether and not put it back on the board until other books have been straightened out by the sharps.

The most ridiculous reason that some books move the number is what we call ” moving on air.” In other words, moving without a bet. Sure I can see moving the number if a game has moved from -4 1/2 to -6, but not to the -6. Moving the line to -5 1/2 and taking a bet or two at that number still gets some play to the game. But moving right to the -6 without a bet doesn’t give the book a chance to win.

Normally on Monday Night Football, the books know where they stand to the game as all the losing parlays and parlay cards have been wiped out and the only bets that remain are live. The book may then move (adjust) the game to take some money back on the side opposite the major jeopardy.

Thanks for your questions,
Keith

Keith Glantz has been a professional oddsmaker and handicapper for over 25 years and he looks forward to answering any questions you have about sports betting. He can be contacted by email.