Ask the oddsmaker: Cars and NBA stars

Every sports gambler wants to know more about their passion because in this game, knowlege equals cash.

Enter professional oddsmaker Keith Glantz. Glantz is here to answer any sports betting question you can dish out to increase your sports betting IQ. Be sure to check out his weekly columns and send him any inquiries you have.

This week's column discusses the NBA All-Star lines and betting on NASCAR. The NBA All-Star game tips off Sunday and NASCAR starts its engines this weekend with the Daytona 500.

Question: Do you find the Sagarin stats useful? Specifically, the “schedule” factor seems like it would be an excellent way to evaluate each team’s overall performance against the group. However, I have not been successful in demonstrating any discernable advantage when implementing those values. Can you elaborate on this?

Answer: First let me say that any sort of ratings program is better than none at all, plus strength of schedule is also a useful tool. However, in my opinion, any set of power ratings that assigns a single “home rating” that is the same for every team is really not servicing its users.

Stating that every team plays equally as well at home is ludicrous. Imagine saying that Duquesne, Georgia and UCLA equal the home ratings of Arkansas, Iowa State and Washington. They don’t, and there is at least a 3 point difference in each case. Of course then you’d have to question how accurate the ratings and schedule strength are on each team if they’re calculated on their home and away performances.

Question: How do linesmakers go about setting the pointspread and the over/under for the NBA All-Star game?

Answer: Even if you use a power ratings system, it’s of no value here. I guess the best way to answer is that they just have a feel for the right number that will hopefully get some two-way action.

Obviously both sides are made up of star players, but the team with more superstars gets the respect of both the linemakers and the wise guys - which is the West this season. Plus the game is being played in Denver so an additional edge goes to the West.

As for the total, checking back to see how the game was bet the last couple of years is most important. Looking back to the early 90s, I seem to remember the totals being as high as 265-275. Then for some reason the game slowed down a bit as the games played out in the mid-240s in the mid-90s (if I remember correctly – and that’s not a given).

The pace seemed to pick up a bit into the 250-260 range in the late 90s where it still is this year. By the way, Spiro at Olympic opened the game West -6 with an over/under of 259. Take note however, that the West has a lot of size and if they decide to play the tall lineup, don’t look for them to push the ball down the court.

Question: The Phoenix Suns are sending three players to the All-Star game - Nash, Stoudemire and Marion. Does this mean the Suns will get more value from oddsmakers after the break because the public might assume that the team’s top players are fatigued?

Answer: Well that’s an interesting observation. The Suns really only go six-deep (with Jimmy Jackson the 6th man) and Phoenix runs the ball as much or more than any other team in the NBA.

But to say that they will be fatigued after the All-Star break may be stretching it a little. Remember that the All-Star game is Sunday and the Suns don’t play again until Wednesday at home against the Clippers. However, down the stretch heading into the playoffs, and certainly into the postseason, this may be worth watching.

Thanks for the tip.

Question: There is a theory that losing NBA teams often coast during the week leading into the All-Star break and often have trouble covering the spread. Do sharp bettors fade losing teams leading up to the break based on this theory?

Answer: This is a new one to me, so I threw it out to some of the Covers Experts.

Shawn Torrey told me he didn’t put too much stock into theories and trends. He does agree, however, that certain teams (depending on the situation) could come up with a lame effort worrying more about where they’ll be spending the break. Torrey adds that he assumes that the Raptors, amidst all the recent bad press, were looking forward to the break as much as any team and it showed Wednesday night when they gave up more than 120 points to the Bulls.

Stephen Nover believes that you can’t just make such a blanket statement but perhaps some teams do (like the Atlanta Hawks). But it must be taken on a team-by-team basis.

Nover adds that sometimes though, teams are on long road trips - the Clippers for example playing seven straight on the road - and they are good to fade heading into the break because they start packing it in early.

Tony George takes a slightly different approach stating that he tends to go with “hot hands” versus losing teams before the All-Star break. Teams like Detroit, Houston and Chicago are crushing the books.

“I like to find teams that are still hungry and on a roll,” says George.

Question: I love NASCAR but have never really bet on it much. Are there any tips that you would recommend for the novice bettor heading into the Daytona 500?

Answer: For your first question I asked Ed Salmons, the Race & Sportsbook Manager over at the Las Vegas Hilton. Salmons favors betting the “matchups” rather then the odds to win the race.

“My tips for betting Daytona would be to try and bet matchups that involve plus prices as there is always one huge wreck that will affect 20 or more drivers,” says Salmons. “I would stay away from matchups involving Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon as they have the best two cars entering the weekend.”

Question:When are NASCAR odds usually posted for an upcoming week’s race? Is it better to bet as soon as the odds come out or wait until closer to race time?

Most places have odds up by the Tuesday of that week or Wednesday at the latest, although Salmons posts his odds at the Hilton by noon every Monday.

“I would say that on certain tracks some drivers have a big advantage and if you can get them early in the week, you can sometimes catch a very inviting price,” offers Salmons. “For example, on a road course there are only five drivers that consistently win and there may be value on at least one of them.

“The race in Las Vegas is a race that you can get an advantage on as well. The first three years were dominated by the Roush cars and if you followed the pattern after the first year you could use that to your advantage.

”Dale Earnhardt Jr. struggled badly last year on tracks like Las Vegas and if you see slow times by him in practice, he would be a go against driver in the race and other similar tracks.”

Thanks for your help Ed.

Keith Glantz has been a professional oddsmaker and handicapper for over 25 years and he looks forward to answering any questions you might have about sports betting. He can be contacted by email.